Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
The US technology sector rose again last night and worked back the losses from the previous day of trading as the market came to grips with the Federal Reserve’s announcement surrounding interest. Tesla was a standout performer and has seen a huge rise in the last week rising more than 20% and rising 7.91% overnight. The Nasdaq moved up 1.95%.
The Dow Jones was slightly weaker as commodities had mixed results, although the index was still up by 0.74% and the S&P 500 finished the session up 1.13%. In Europe, banks and financial stocks helped power the FTSE to a solid day up 0.5% and the DAX ended up 1% with similar strength shown in the financial sector as they look to benefit from rising interest rates. Commodities Commodities saw relatively mixed results across the board.
Gold was down 0.75% to 1920.80 as it continues to consolidate after pulling back from the highs a fortnight ago. Brent Crude Oil fell back 1.59% to USD 114.48. The commodity took a breath after rising 17.89% in the preceding three days.
Natural gas has seen a breakout of its consolidation as it broke above $5.00. The spot price finished up 4.35% at $5.185. Natural Gas daily chart Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had another solid session with the BTC/USD pair at $42,650 at 10.31 pm GMT.
Bitcoin has continued its rally from the previous week which is up a combined total of 12.56%. Ethereum has performed even better with a 4.92 rise overnight and an 18.63% increase over the last two weeks. The price of ETH/USD is currently sitting just above $3000 at $3002.71 at 10.36 pm GMT.
FOREX The AUD/USD has continued its move up. The price has broken out of its channel and is approaching $0.75. The EUR/USD, after selling down early in the day, the price was able to recover and then finish the day up 0.12% at $1.1029 as it continues its rally from the lows of two weeks ago.
The USD/JPY is rocketing along as it approaches its long-term resistance at 125 JPY. Overnight the price broke through 120.00 JPY and closing at 120.092JPY, a 1.08% increase.
Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest has bet on a winner in Australian Agricultural Company (AAC). The company is Australia’s largest integrated cattle and beef producer and is recognised as the oldest continuously operating company in Australia. In recent week’s key investment figure, Twiggy Forrest through his investment company Tattering, has doubled its holding from 8.97% to 17.4% at a cost of approximately $122 million making it a substantial holder.
The old investing and trading adage is that you should always follow the big money, and, in this case, the big money could not be much bigger then Twiggy. Company Overview AAC operations consist of properties, feedlots, and farms on around 6.4 million hectares of land in QLD and the Northern Territory representing almost 1% of all land mass in Australia. The company then exports the beef to key markets globally.
The company currently has a market capitalisation of $1.28 Billion and a share price of $2.11 as of 3pm EST 5 July 2022. Recent Performance The company has seen very strong earnings in recent years as they have improved their margins and reduced their costs. In the 2022 year their sales and production volumes dropped off.
At the same time Asian and Australian volume were down 21% and 24% respectively which do lead to some concern. With over half of its product being sold in Asia, the Asia pacific region specifically is a pause for concern. However, with the price of Wagyu beef sales increasing by 20%, the company has been able to offset the volume drop off and see revenue remain steady.
Opportunities The company has been expanding globally and this has seen a high demand for its products internationally. With a 56% increase year on year and a 21% volume increase in sales the USA represents a market that is hungry for AAC and its beef. The leadership of AAC has shown an impressive ability to minimise costs in times of low profitability and ensure the company does not operate with negative cashflow.
According to DataM Intelligence Analysis (2021) The price of Wagu Beef is expected to compound 7% annual for the rest of the decade. These figures bode well for AAC. Management has shown itself to be particularly impressive in reducing costs and improving margins particularly during difficult years during Covid 19.
It was able to improve its operating margin by 43% from the prior year showing just how effective it can be. Weaknesses With growing inflationary pressures and a global theatre that has seen many disruptions to the supply chain, the potential increase or blowout of costs related to the logistical movement of good may be cause for concern. Particularly with much of its market overseas, the potential for supply chain pressures is great for AAC.
In addition, any further border closures, or economic sanctions may prove to be problematic for the company. Technical Analysis The company’s share price has seen a significant rise in recent weeks in its price and pure volume of buying. The chart shows a significant coiling of the price as the buying volume was building and the sellers were drying up.
The price has also broken through the multi decade high of $2.13 on significant volume. The $2.13 level had added importance as it was also the midpoint of the 20-year range. In recent days the market has retested the $2.10 level but a short/medium term technical target of $3.38 is not out of the question.
In the Long term a price target based on the fundamentals of the company, the increase in price of Beef, management’s history of effective financial management and the growth pathways in the USA and Asia may see the share price rise towards $4.50.
After weeks of relentless selling the market provided a decent rally to end the week. The S&P 500 saw a nice jump rising 3.44% during Friday’s trading session. This may provide investors and traders some positive momentum for the beginning of the week.
Whilst the market is still holding a down trend, it was able to bounce of the bottom of the downward channel. Similar moves were seen on the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones as well as other global indices. In Australia, the ASX 200 was not quite as productive as the American indices in its Friday session.
The Aussie market may catch some of the gains from the Friday US session in the early part of the week. Inflationary pressures have eased somewhat with hard commodities such as Oil and Natural Gas have pulled back from their recent highs. This has also supported leading to money flowing back into growth markets.
Small Cap companies had an important day as the market rallied, lifting 3.31%. This marks the strongest day since July 2020 and some much-needed relief after a brutal sell off. As the end of the financial year approaches, tax selling should be expected on the market.
Furthermore, it is a time where funds and fixed weight portfolios rebalance their assets. Stocks in the spotlight Anteris Technologies, (AVR) The Bio/Medi Tech company saw great growth in its share price during the last week as it climbed more than 33%. The company announced a 6-month update of its first cohort of 5 patients using its DurAVR 3D Single piece aortic valve.
The results showed an 86% improvement in Haemodynamic/normal blood flows since the product was implanted into patients. The company’s share price rose to $28.30 its highest level since 2019 om the back of these results. With a relatively small float the share price can be quite volatile and have a high daily range.
BlueScope Steel (BSL) Blue Scope Steele has seen a large drop in its share price sitting just above its long-term support. The large Steele manufacturer has seen as the market reacts to an increase in costs for the manufacturing and construction sectors. The share price has been trending downward after peaking in August 2021.
Woolworths (WOW) Consumer staple Woolworth’s had a strong rally as its share price rose 7.26% to $35.46 after slipping to as low as $32.60 in the middle of June. The company’s share price has held up relatively well during the recent volatility as inflation and geopolitical pressure have seen much of the market slip.
The USA and the UK announced measures to ban Russian oil imports in order to isolate Russia from the global economy. This follows on from sanctions imposed on Russia’s top oligarchs and government officials along with its central bank in a bid to push against Russia’s war on Ukraine. The market responded to the news with a volatile trading session.
In the USA the NASDAQ finished the day down 0.28% after it had made a 2.6% during the middle of the day. The Dow Jones finished the day in a similar way finishing down 0.56% and the S&P 500 down 0.72%. The European markets were flat with the FTSE down 0.067% and the DAX down 0.024%.
The VIX index also reached 37 and is at its highest level since the start of the pandemic. Commodities On the back of the oil imports ban from Russia, Brent Crude jumped 7.7% at $132.75 before settling to $123.21. As a reference in 2021, the USA imported 8% of if its total oil imports from Russia.
Other commodities such as Nickel and Palladium continued their runs as bearish investors closed their positions causing a short squeeze. Gold was able to push through the $2000 resistance and touched its all-time high of $2075. Gold will be one to watch as the US Federal Reserve is poised to release its CPI figures on Friday.
With record levels of volume being transacted through gold, it is worth keeping watch on. 4-hour gold chart below: Bitcoin had another relatively flat day rising by.64% in the BTC/USD pair. Ethereum performed better with ETH/USD rising 3.28% although it could not finish above the previous day’s highs. The USD/AUD pair continues its grind up moving 0.63% as it moves to test resistance.
The USD/EUR looks to be consolidating although it did finish the day down 0.39%. The USD/JPY climbed for the second straight day climbing 0.32% as it continues tightening its range.
The Swiss National Bank, (SNB) has surprised the market and raised interest rates by 0.5% to combat inflation. The SNB was one of the last central banks holding firm in its dovish stance, however with growing inflation felt now was the time to intervene and raised rates from -0.75% interest to -0.25%. It was the first interest rate rise since 2007 and followed rate increases from the US Federal Reserve earlier this week.
Pressure had been building on the Swiss after recent data showed a near 14-year high rate of inflation. Similarly, the European Central Bank signalled it will kick off rate hiked in July. SNB Governor, Thomas Jordan flagged the potential for more interest rate hikes outlining that the currency was not as strong as it once was.
This leaves The Bank of Japan as the only developed central bank who not adjusted interest rates. In response to the announcement the USD tumbled 3.1% against the CHF as it saw it largest drop in almost 7 years. The EUR also dropped 1.8% against the CHF which saw it largest since January 2015.
The yields on Swiss 10 year bonds rose 18 basis points and Swiss stocks dropped by 3%. The USDCHF The EURUSD
The Dow Jones closed flat after another volatile day. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished 2.04% and 0.74% lower respectively, as tech continued its sell-off and the Nasdaq confirmed its Bear market. The European markets performed a little better as optimism that the worst of Ukraine and Russian conflict may have passed.
The FTSE moved up 0.53% and the DAX 2.21%. As the conflict settles, renewed sentiment may return. Brent crude oil dipped again by 5.5% to USD 106.53 as it continues its pullback from its recent highs.
Iron Ore was also 6.2% lower to $144.90 a tonne from the pressure from China and could impact the Australian market. Gold has continued its pullback from its recent highs falling to $1949. Natural gas prices fell across the world with the prospect of another round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, along with wilder weather conditions.
Cryptocurrency looks set to operate under increased regulations. A last-minute attempt by European lawmakers to potentially create a soft ban on Bitcoin failed overnight. The key amendment that would have banned Proof-of-Work distributed ledger technology that is responsible for a considerable amount of carbon emissions.
The parliamentary committee will now seek a compromise solution that will address the sustainability of crypto asset mining without discriminating against specific technologies by proposing to include them in the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance. This rule book seeks to classify what kind of investments can be deemed to match Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. Bitcoin has continued to hold its support level around $37,500 – 38,000 and the BTC/USD is up 2.40% at 9.50 pm GMT.
Ethereum continues to consolidate into a tight range with the ETH/USD going 1.75% lower. FOREX The AUD/USD struggled to hold above $0.73 and fell 1.40% to 0.7204%. The USD/EUR continues to consolidate as it reacts to the Ukraine and Russian conflict.
All eyes are still on the Federal Reserve which is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points later this week. The commentary associated with the rates will hopefully give some indication about how hawkish they are and their plans going forward.