Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported its latest financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended October 31, after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The US software company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Intuit reported revenue of $2.597 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.497 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.66 per share (an increase of 8% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.194 per share. ''We had a strong first quarter as we innovated and delivered on our strategy to be the global AI-driven expert platform powering prosperity for consumers and small businesses,'' Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We continue to see proof that the benefits of our financial technology platform are more mission-critical than ever to our customers in an uncertain macro environment,'' Goodarzi added. The stock was down by 1.54% on Tuesday at $378.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.68% 3 month: -11.31% Year-to-date: -40.27% 1 year: -41.10% Intuit price targets Keybanc: $450 Morgan Stanley: $520 Credit Suisse: $500 BMO Capital: $467 Barclays: $490 Wells Fargo: $525 Stifel: $475 Citigroup: $538 Deutsche Bank: $560 Intuit is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $108.70 billion.
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The Chinese e-commerce platform Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) announced its unaudited Q3 financial results on Monday. The company beat revenue estimates for the quarter, but fell short of earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $4.991 billion (an increase of 65% year-over-year) vs. $4.315 billion estimate.
EPS at $0.302 per share vs. analyst estimate of $0.673 per share. ''We continued to deepen our value creation in the third quarter,'' Lei Chen, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We will increase our R&D investment to further enhance the supply chain efficiency and agricultural digital inclusion,'' Chen added. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price. Shares of Pinduoduo were up by around 14% on Monday, trading $74.97 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +36.93% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +78% 1 year: +34% Pinduoduo price targets Citigroup: $79 Barclays: $70 B of A Securities: $89 HSBC: $93 JP Morgan: $23 DBS Bank: $96 Macquarie: $104 Pinduoduo is the 136 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $94.92 billion. You can trade Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pinduoduo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Phillip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has issued an apology to the Australian public in his most recent statement. Lowe specifically apologised for providing guidance in 2020 and 2021 that the official cash would only rise in 2024. Instead, rate rises began earlier this year and rises have occurred in 7 straight months.
During that time many Australians took out home with the understanding of frozen rates at least until 2024. With inflation set to worsen and rise beyond 8% by the end of the year and the 30-day Interbank Cash rate futures pointing to a maximum cash rate of 3.865% by October next year it is not expected to get easier for Australian households. Furthermore, with the cost of living increasing, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Australians to afford their mortgages.
The apology from Lowe, whilst sincere does little to alleviate the short-term pain that will be felt by many families who have taken out home loans in the prior 12-18 months. The importance of the statements made by Lowe today are that the RBA will now adjust its messaging to the public to regain trust. Lowe attempted to justify the communication strategy at the time by outlining the exceptionality of the Pandemic and the circumstances that it brought, stating that, “It was dire times, and we decided that we would do everything we could.” Currently, the Australian dollar is $0.66 after bottoming at $0.62. as the USD has weakened and the Federals Reserve has become more open to lowering rates the AUD has recovered and regained some momentum.
The question remains, can the RBA build up trust with the public as it pushes forward in its fight against inflation or has faith in the Country’s central bank been diminished.
The USDCHF has just reached a significant support zone providing a potential entry for a low-risk high return trade. In recent weeks the USD has an aggressive pulled back on the back of weaker then expected inflation figures. This has benefited the CHF and most other non-USD currencies as expectations of a potential pivot grow and money moves away from the Greenback.
From a technical perspective the price of the USDCHF has fallen to its lowest price since August 2022. The price has also largely been in a ranging pattern since 2010 between 1.03436 0.8741. In addition, besides the Covid years, the price has been in a tighter range between 0.94 and 1.03.
The current price zone has been a really important area of support and in the most recent test of this area, in August the price bounced quite strongly. Interestingly, during times of higher market volatility the price extends its lower bound of the range from 0.94 to 0.87. For example, the prices extended its range during the GFC and the Covid pandemic.
However, generally, the pair trades in the tighter range. Therefore, as it is arguable if the current market conditions represent volatility as sinister as the GFC or the Pandemic this current price action lends itself to a potential bounce over a further sell off. The bounce is also supported by the RSI which is not just oversold but showing the potential for a divergence.
With the price at an ideal entry point, it allows for a high potential risk reward trade. The trade’s target is 1.0075 as seen on the price chart.
Shares of Deere rise as financial results exceed expectations Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced financial results on Wednesday for the fourth quarter that ended on October 30, 2022. The US manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment reported revenue of $15.536 billion for the quarter, which was above analyst forecast of $13.443 billion. Earnings per share reported at $7.44 per share vs. $7.112 per share expected. ''Deere’s strong performance for both the fourth quarter and full year is a tribute to our dedicated team of employees, dealers, and suppliers throughout the world,'' John C.
May, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We’re proud of their extraordinary efforts to overcome supply-chain constraints, increase factory production, and deliver products to our customers,'' he added. The stock was up by around 5% on Wednesday, trading at $441.33. Stock performance 1 month: +12.79% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +67% 1 year: +94% Deere & Company price targets Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Argus Research: $420 Citigroup: $425 Morgan Stanley: $424 Credit Suisse: $447 Wells Fargo: $423 Oppenheimer: $365 Jefferies: $400 JP Morgan: $325 Deere & Company is the 84 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $132.90 billion.
You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Medtronic posts mixed results Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) reported latest financial results for its second quarter of fiscal year 2023, which ended October 28, 2022 on Tuesday. The medical technology company posted mixed results for the quarter. Revenue reported at $7.585 billion (down 3% year-over-year) vs. $7.698 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $1.30 per share (down by 2% year-over-year) vs. $1.277 per share estimate. "Slower than predicted procedure and supply recovery drove revenue below our expectations this quarter. We continue to take decisive actions to improve the overall performance of the company, including streamlining our organizational structure, strengthening our supply chain, driving a performance culture, and strategically allocating capital to support our best growth opportunities with the investments they deserve," Geoff Martha, CEO of the company said in press release. "We're seeing the benefit of these changes – along with new incentives and strong execution – in certain businesses, and we're focused on ensuring these efforts translate into improved performance across the company. Looking ahead, we're confident we have a clear path to delivering durable growth and increased shareholder value," Martha concluded.
The stock was down by around 5% on Tuesday at $77.74 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.62% 3 month: -8.79% Year-to-date: -20.45% 1 year: -27.42% Medtronic price targets Barclays: $90 Truist Securities: $89 Mizuho: $100 Jefferies: $87 Morgan Stanley: $97 RBC Capital: $110 Wells Fargo: $96 Stifel: $105 Medtronic is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $109.37 billion. You can trade Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Medtronic Plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap