Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
US telecommunications giant Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) announced the latest earnings results for the fiscal Q2 ending January 28, 2023, after market close in the US on Wednesday. Cisco beat revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. The company reported revenue of $13.592 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. the $13.419 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.88 per share (up by 5% year-over-year) vs. $0.855 EPS expected. Cisco also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.39 a share. CEO commentary ''With Cisco's strong Q2 performance, our fiscal 2023 is shaping up to be a great year," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "The modern, highly secure networks we are building serve as the backbone of our customers' technology strategy.
This, combined with the success of our ongoing business transformation and operational discipline gives me confidence in our future," Robbins added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by 5.24% at market close on Thursday in the US, trading at $50.96 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.99% 3 months: +10.68% Year-to-date: +8.24% 1 year: -7.54% Cisco stock price targets Loop Capital: $66 Piper Sandler: $53 UBS: $51 Cowen & Co.: $64 JP Morgan: $55 Credit Suisse: $69 Rosenblatt: $53 Wells Fargo: $57 Raymond James: $63 Morgan Stanley: $55 Cisco is the 46 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $211.81 billion. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis A hard-fought tug-of-war between bulls and bears played out on the DXY Index after U.S. inflation data crossed the wires. A knee-jerk reaction caused the greenback to plunge, but eventually it was able to recover and move into positive territory due to higher Treasury yields (DXY +0.10% to 103.41). However, a bearish USD outlook is held by economists at Bank of America Global Research, who see a mild recession in the USA for this year as fed cuts to begin only in March 2024. “We expect a mild recession starting mid-2023 and Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024.
For 2023, the market expects a much milder recession, with the Fed still hiking rate 1-2 more times before slightly cutting rates in second half of the year.” “For now, we still hold a bearish USD view for the medium term; 2023 playing out in line with leading indicator historical precedents would increase the upside risk to our bearish USD outlook.” US Dollar Index Technical Analysis The US Dollar index has been trading in a range between $102.6 to $104 for the last 7 days. At the time of writing, Dollar Index is currently trading at $103.93, which is a major level of resistance where price has fallen significantly from in the past (Jan 2017). As seen in the photo below, it shows that price has come up to test this trend line that can be clearly seen on the daily time frame, paired with the consolidation, if this daily candlestick closes below $104 there could be a high probability of the US dollar continuing with its higher time frame downtrend.
A break above this trend line however could indicate a move to the upside.
The EURJPY has been trading under the 142.70 resistance area since the end of December 2022. With the price failing to break through over several occasions, the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen has seen the EURJPY trade beyond the resistance level, signaling the potential for a significant move to the upside. The recent weakness in the Japanese Yen comes not only because of the strength of the DXY but from the announcement of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor.
Kazuo Ueda stated that the BoJ’s current monetary policy is appropriate and that should continue. A sustained move to the upside would not only be dependent on the weakness of the Japanese Yen. A recovery in the strength of the Euro could provide the additional push, to drive the EURJPY higher.
ECB President Lagarde has continued to maintain her hawkish view by commenting that she intends to raise rates by 50bps at the next ECB meeting in March. Looking at the technical analysis, the EURJPY is likely to retrace briefly down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the resistance turned support level, before trading higher toward the key resistance at 145.60, formed by the previous swing high level. However, if the EURJPY trades significantly lower, past the previous swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, this breakout potential could be invalidated.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) released the latest financial results for Q4 2022 on Wednesday. The Canadian mining company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for a second consecutive quarter. Barrick Gold reported revenue of $2.726 billion for the quarter vs. $2.674 billion expected.
EPS reported at $0.128 per share vs. $0.111 EPS estimate. The company also announced a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q4 2022. ''Our continued success in not only replenishing but also unlocking significant value in our asset base shows the unmatched potential of our organic growth pipeline,'' CEO of Barrick, Mark Bristow said in a press release. ''A stronger Q4 operational performance, notably from Cortez and Carlin in Nevada, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and Tongon in Côte d’Ivoire, contributed to annual gold production of more than 4.1 million ounces in a year impacted by infrastructural issues at Turquoise Ridge in Nevada and the replacement of the rock winder at Kibali in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper production from Lumwana in Zambia and Jabal Sayid in Saudi Arabia was well within guidance.'' The company also announced another share buyback program: ''Barrick returned a record $1.6 billion to shareholders in 2022 through dividends and share buybacks and has announced a further share buyback program of up to $1 billion for the next twelve months.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% at the open in the US at $17.22 as share.
Stock performance 1 month: -3.10% 3 months: +12.79% Year-to-date: +3.67% 1 year: -19.88% Barrick Gold stock price targets BNP Paribas: $19 Barclays: $26 RBC Capital: $20 Goldman Sachs: $18 BMO Capital: $28 Barrick Gold is the 572 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $31.38 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) announced Q4 2022 and 2022 full year financial results after the market close in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest travel company reported revenue of $1.902 billion (up by 24% year-over-year), beating analyst estimate of $1.861 billion. The revenue reported was the highest for a Q4 in Airbnb’s history.
Earnings per share also topped analyst estimate at $0.48 per share vs. $0.256 earnings per share expected. Revenue in 2022 reported at $8.4 billion, up by 40% vs. 2021. CEO commentary ''2022 was another incredible year for Airbnb.
We made almost 100 upgrades to our core service, saw record guest demand, and ended the year with our highest-ever number of active listings globally,'' co-founder and CEO, Brian Chesky said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares of Airbnb closed at $120.49 a share on Tuesday, up by 3.28%. The stock rose by around 9% in the after-hours as Q4 results came in above estimates.
Stock performance 1 month: +19.35% 3 months: +12.95% Year-to-date: +41.37% 1 year: -32.88% Airbnb stock price targets B of A Securities: $130 Barclays: $105 UBS: $114 Wells Fargo: $130 Goldman Sachs: $87 Mizuho: $110 Morgan Stanley: $80 Baird: $100 Airbnb is the 188 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $76.53 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) announced Q4 2022 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US company posted better-than-expected results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Uber reported revenue of $8.607 billion (up by 47% year-over-year or 59% in constant currency) vs. $8.513 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.29 per share for the quarter. Analysts were expecting a loss per share of -$0.154. It’s the first time since Q4 2021 that the company has reported higher-than-expected EPS.
CEO and CFO commentary ''We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever, with robust demand and record margins,'' Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. ''Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum into 2023.'' "In 2022, we significantly exceeded our profitability outlook, with an incremental margin of 10%,'' Nelson Chai, CFO of the company added. ''Our outlook for a Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA step up in Q1 builds on that progress, and sets us up for yet another record year." Stock reaction Share price of Uber rose by around 2% on Wednesday and was trading at around $35.91 a share – the highest level since April 2022. Stock performance 1 month: +26.77% 3 months: +35.37% Year-to-date: +45.33% 1 year: -10.57% Uber stock price targets Wedbush: $38 Needham: $54 Wolfe Research: $42 Wells Fargo: $46 Piper Sandler: $33 Truist Securities: $60 Cowen & Co.: $70 Morgan Stanley: $54 Mizuho: $46 UBS: $36 Barclays: $54 Uber is the 204 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $71.61 billion. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap