Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
American customer relationship management company Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) released the latest financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednedsay. Salesforce achieved revenue of $9.287 billio for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 vs. $9.223 billion expected. Revenue increased by 11% from the same period the year before.
Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimates at $2.29 vs. $2.27 per share estimate. EPS grew by 36.30% year-over-year. Full fiscal 2024 revenue grew by 11% to $34.9 billion.
The company expects revenue of between $37.7 to $38 billion for current fiscal year, which is below analyst estimate of $38.61 billion. Company overview Founded: February 3, 1999 Headquarters: Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 79,390 (2023) Industry: Cloud computing, Enterprise software, Consulting Key people: Marc Benioff (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce had this to say to shareholders following the latest earning call: "It's been a phenomenal year of transformation for Salesforce with strong performance across all our key metrics, including record cash flow and margin growth. Our total remaining performance obligation ended the fourth quarter at $56.9 billion, an increase of 17% year-over-year.
We’re also thrilled to initiate our first-ever Salesforce dividend and increase our share buyback plan by $10 billion." "With our trusted, unified Einstein 1 Platform, we’re incredibly well positioned to build on our success and capitalize on the massive surge in tech spending expected over the coming years, delivering an unprecedented level of intelligence to our customers as AI transforms every company and industry," Benioff concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, ending the day at $299.77 a share. Shares fell by around 4% in after-hours trading despite earnings beat on future guidance.
Stock performance 5 day: +5.45% 1 month: +6.37% 3 months: +29.80% Year-to-date: +13.63% 1 year: +78.66% Salesforce stock price targets Piper Sandler: $285 Citigroup: $325 Stifel Nicolaus: $330 Wells Fargo & Company: $290 UBS Group: $310 Oppenheimer: $325 Robert W. Baird: $310 JMP Securities: $293 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wolfe Research: $315 Argus: $290 Bank of America: $300 Salesforce Inc. is the 33 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $289.58 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) announced the latest financial results for Q3 of fiscal 2024 after the market close on Monday. The US software and hardware manufacturer did not disappoint investors as both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) topped estimates. The company achieved revenue of $13.3 billion for the previous quarter vs. $13.286 billion expected.
Revenue grew by 7% year-over-year. EPS reached $1.41 vs. $1.377 per share expected. EPS was up by 16% vs. the same period the year before.
Oracle announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 a share. Company overview Founded: 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) CEO commentary Safra Catz, CEO of Oracle had this to say to investors following the latest results: “Large new cloud infrastructure contracts signed in Q3 drove Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to over $80 billion—an all-time record.” “We expect to continue receiving large contracts reserving cloud infrastructure capacity because the demand for our Gen2 AI infrastructure substantially exceeds supply—despite the fact we are opening new and expanding existing cloud datacenters very, very rapidly. We expect that 43% of our current $80 billion of Remaining Performance Obligations will be recognized as revenue over the next four quarters, and that our Gen2 Cloud Infrastructure business will remain in a hypergrowth phase—up 53% in Q3—for the foreseeable future,” Catz concluded.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.52% at the end of trading session on Monday at $114.13 a share. The stock rose by over 9% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.06% 1 month: -1.48% 3 months: -0.87% Year-to-date: +8.25% 1 year: +34.38% Oracle stock price targets Piper Sandler: $122 BMO Capital Markets: $126 UBS Group: $125 Wolfe Research: $130 Evercore ISI: $130 Morgan Stanley: $105 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 DZ Bank: $125 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $100 DA Davidson: $104 Barclays: $147 Oracle Corporation is the 31 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $313.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to “Trading” then select “Share CFDs”. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has had a terrible start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by over 35% year-to-date. On 23/2/24, JP Morgan Chase & Co. downgraded its price target for NIO from $8.50 to $5 a share, citing "weakness to the company's slow sales in January and investor concern on the company's sales and earnings momentum in 2024." On Friday, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer released the latest delivery data for February. The company delivered a total of 8,132 cars last month, down from 12,157 deliveries in February 2022.
NIO has delivered 467,781 vehicles in total as of 29/2/24. The EV maker will announce the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the US market open on 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.52% at the end of Friday’s session at $5.78 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +7.69% 1 month: +4.96% 3 months: -18.67% Year-to-date: -35.89% 1 year: -39.24% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1395 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.09 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Last week, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) released its latest delivery numbers for February. On Tuesday, it was time for the company to announce Q4 2023 and full-year financial results. Let’s take a closer look at how the company performed.
NIO achieved revenue of $2.409 billion for the last three months of 2023, which fell below Wall Street estimate of $2.558 billion. Revenue was up by 6.5% year-over-year. The company reported loss per share of -$0.396, which was more than -$0.337 loss per share expected.
Full year revenue reached $7.833 billion in 2023, up from 7.143 billion the year prior. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, NIO set a new delivery record of 160,038 vehicles, ranking first in China’s premium BEV market with an average transaction price over RMB 300,000. At NIO Day 2023, we unveiled ET9, our smart electric executive flagship, showcasing a suite of our latest technologies, including our self-developed AD chip, full-domain 900V architecture, advanced intelligent chassis system and various other industry-leading innovations, " CEO of NIO, William Li said in a statement to shareholders. "We will soon start deliveries of 2024 NIO products equipped with the highest computing power among production vehicles and constantly enhance users' driving and digital experience.
Meanwhile, we plan to release Navigate on Pilot Plus (NOP+) for urban roads to all NT2.0 users in the second quarter. Our continuous investments in technologies, battery swapping network and user community will bolster our competitive advantages as we navigate the future competition," Li finished his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by around 2% on Tuesday, trading at $5.44.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.28% 1 month: -9.20% 3 months: -26.31% Year-to-date: -39.64% 1 year: -38.96% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1369 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.38 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) with the stock down by over 14%. On Wednesday, the Chinese e-commerce company announced the latest financial results, which sent the stock higher. Beijing based company achieved revenue of $43.111 billion vs. $42.216 billion expected.
Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimate of $0.661 at $0.747 per share. EPS was up by 10.18% from the same period the year before.
Full year revenue was up by 3.7% from 2022 at $152.8 billion. Full year EPS reached $3.12, up by 25.04% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1998 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 450,680 (2022) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Sandy Xu (CEO) CEO commentary "We were pleased to finish 2023 on a strong note, with upticks in both revenues and profitability for the fourth quarter," Sandy Xu, CEO of JD said in a statement to investors. "JD’s proactive actions have begun to produce results as our decisive focus on user experience, price competitiveness and platform ecosystem drives deeper and more frequent user engagement and healthier user growth momentum.
With the two priorities of user experience improvement and market share expansion, we look forward to creating more value for our users, business partners and shareholders in 2024," Xu concluded his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by over 16% during Wednesday’s session, trading at $25.07 a share – the highest level since 11/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: +8.31% 1 month: +7.18% 3 months: -7.12% Year-to-date: -14.49% 1 year: -47.41% JD.com stock price targets Barclays: $35 Citigroup: $42 Mizuho: $35 Susquehanna: $30 Benchmark: $67 UBS Group: $39 The Goldman Sachs Group: $53 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $31 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $31 Morgan Stanley: $33 Bank of America: $51 HSBC: $70 JD.com Inc. is the 506 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $39.04 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) released earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. The American information technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion for the three months ending on 31/1/24 vs. $7.089 billion estimate. Revenue was down by 14% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.48 vs. $0.449 per share expected. EPS decreased by 24% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Spring, Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,000 (2023) Industry: Information technology Key people: Patricia Russo (Chairwoman), Antonio Neri (President and CEO) CEO commentary "HPE exceeded our profitability expectations and drove near-record year-over-year growth in our recurring revenue in the face of market headwinds, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy," CEO of the company, Antonio Neri said in a press release. "Despite a mixed quarter, I remain very confident that our focus on customer-centric innovation and our track record of operational discipline will allow us to capitalize on the significant market opportunities in AI as well as across edge and hybrid cloud and to deliver value to our shareholders," Neri ended his statement to investors.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.49% at the end of Thursday’s session before the latest results were announced, trading at $15.23 a share. The stock dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.76% 1 month: -1.14% 3 months: -10.20% Year-to-date: -10.57% 1 year: -2.03% Hewlett Packard stock price targets Sandford C.
Bernstein: $17 Barclays: $15 Morgan Stanley: $16 Raymond James: $20 Bank of America: $19 Wells Fargo & Company: $21 Credit Suisse Group: $20 Citigroup: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 The Goldman Sachs Group: $15 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is the 924 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $19.65 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap