Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
With the Brexit negations dominating the news flow over the last few weeks, you may forget there are other events taking place. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its decision whether to increase, decrease or maintain the interest rates. The decision is scheduled to be announced at 12:45 PM UK time.
Why Is The Announcement Important? The European Central Bank is the central bank for the Eurozone, the countries which have adopted the Euro, including Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. ECB’s decision to increase, decrease or maintain the interest rate has a significant impact on the financial markets because changes in interest rates affect the exchange rate of the Euro, so it is one of the must-watch economic events in the calendar.
Expectations The European Central Bank has not changed its interest rates since March 2016 and analysts are forecasting that the rates will also remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting. All eyes will be on the European Central Banks President, Mario Draghi’s speech shortly after making the announcement. Hot topics will involve the Italian and the Brexit process, which has developed into complete chaos.
The French budget is another issue to address for the ECB after the French President Emmanuel Macron gave in to the recent anti-government protests by the ''yellow vest'' movement which will cause France to exceed the European Union’s budget deficit ceiling next year. Other ECB data releases to keep an eye out: ECB Marginal Lending Facility (12:45 PM London time) Previous: 0.25% Forecast: 0.25% ECB Deposit Facility Rate (12:45 PM London time) Previous: -0.40% Forecast: -0.40% This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper
One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday 29th May at 15:00 PM London time. Why Is The Announcement Important?
A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks. The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target.
Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets. Expectations The last time the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rates was back in October of last year and it is expected that the rates will remain unchanged at 1.75%, according to the analysts. ''Recent economic data suggest that growth will be stronger than the Bank was expecting in the first quarter, providing a reason to not cut rates.'' ''At the same time, growth will remain below potential, providing no reason to lift rates. The Bank of Canada will, therefore, remain in a holding pattern for now and make any necessary adjustments to that stance based on incoming economic data'', Principal economist Alicia MacDonald said at the Conference Board of Canada last week.
Even though a rate decision is not expected, traders will be keeping a close eye to the upcoming meeting and the comments after the rate decision has been announced. To keep up to date with other upcoming economic events click here for our Economic Calendar. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: DataWrapper, Bank of Canada
On Monday, UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond announced its latest budget, which did not have a massive impact on Pound Sterling. Now that is out of the way; it’s time to focus on another critical economic event – the Bank of England rate decision. The decision is set to be announced at 12:00 PM London time on Thursday.
About Interest Rates Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which is made of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks' Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Bank of England has an inflation target of 2% (currently 2.4%), which is set by the Government and the Bank of England’s monetary policy is set to achieve the Government’s target. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is more than 3% or less 1%, the Governor must write a letter to the Chancellor to explain why and outline how they will get the inflation to the target of 2%.
Expectations We have seen two rate hikes from the Bank of England in the last year, one in November 2017 and August of this year. The current interest rate stands at 0.75%, and according to the latest forecast, we will not see the Bank of England raising the rates in its upcoming meeting. After the announcement, all eyes will be on the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney press conference with his latest outlook on the British economy and Brexit.
The Governor recently mentioned that a limited and gradual series of interest rate hikes are required to keep the inflation in check. The markets are expecting a potential hike in May 2019, after the United Kingdom formally leaves the European Union. Other UK data to keep an eye on: • Bank of England Asset Purchase Rate (12:00 London time) Previous: £435 billion Forecast: £435 billion • Bank of England Inflation Report (12:00 London time) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper
On the back of what has been a pretty punishing month for Oil, now trading below $70 a barrel for WTI crude, we’re going to take a look at Oil, the fundamental drivers behind the price swings and what the future could hold for the Oil markets. For the sake of clarity, this article will be looking exclusively at WTI Crude. So what drove the close to 11% decline in Oil?
What has stalled fund managers and market voices calling for oil to revisit $100 a barrel? Well, mostly it is a confluence of reasons, some rooted in basic economics and one fear-based reaction on the back of the “stock market rout” as it has been dubbed. Now although we are going to be focusing on some of the reasons for this decline, these are not specific to this sell-off alone, these are fundamental drivers in the price of Oil markets.
WTI Crude December Contract - October sell of from $76.72 to low of $68.53 One of the reasons for the sell-off is that of a supply jump. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 22.3 million barrels, which is the most substantial increase since 2015. This factor comes down to basic economics.
With a boost in supply and the more something is readily available; naturally, the associated value will be lower, and this is what is weighing here. However, the story doesn't end there. It can also provide an insight into how the general populous is leaning as an increase in stockpiles means that the current supply level is too much for current demand.
For example, it could potentially be an indicator in sentiment, companies shifting to renewables, and more and more people moving to electric vehicles, etc. All of these factors would impact the appetite for oil which then leads to an oversupply, subsequently causing a tumble in price as we've seen of late. One of the other factors for Crude also stems from this balancing act of supply and demand.
With Crude spiking to highs not long seen, it sparked some fear that the high prices would weigh on demand for the asset, causing investors to be more cautious and to close out long positions. Since then both OPEC and the International Energy Agency have both revised down the oil growth forecasts. WTI December Contract and S&P Overlay - During the "stock rout" The so-called “stock market rout” also took its toll on the Oil price, with investors dumping risk assets and moving into safe-haven assets, i.e., bonds, gold, etc. this helped to perpetuate Crude’s slide and saw it shed a further 5% of its value.
So, with WTI Crude oil currently, at the time or writing sitting at lows of $66.70 a barrel, what lies ahead for Oil? With continued sell-offs seen in equities markets and steadily more risk-off sentiment throughout the market, we could continue to see Oil slide. However, as markets tend to jump between risk-on & risk-off on a daily, sometimes more frequent basis, we can expect to see plenty of activity in the Oil market, and this will undoubtedly be one of our watchlist staples.
For more information or any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives, including Oil Commodity trading, carries a high level of risk.
The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for September. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today versus the forecast of 185,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 3.7% in September better than the forecast of 3.8%.
Worth pointing out that the latest unemployment rate is the lowest level for 49 years. The number of unemployed people decreased by 270,000 to 6 million. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated.
The reaction Initially we saw some weakness in the US dollar as the latest figures were released, however, since then the Dollar has recovered some losses. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated. USD/JPY Hourly Chart GBP/USD Hourly Chart EUR/USD Hourly Chart This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Bloomberg, Go Markets MT4
Markets Eager To Resume As the Easter holidays fade, we quickly saw a market resurgence of traders looking to resume normality. Perhaps one of the more stand-out movers during today's London session was none other than the Pound Aussie cross (GBPAUD). Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement to hold interest rates at 0.1%, the recently stronger Pound took a tumble, and we'll be looking at where the price may end up.
A Sizeable Move Since early hours, the price of GBPAUD declined by 1.05% or roughly 200 pips. Considering the Average True Range (ATR) tends to sit around 100-120 pips, it's not something to ignore. Is this just a one-off move, or is something larger happening here?
RBA Rates On Hold Until 2025 Perhaps the overriding factor that spiked AUD demand today is the dovish comments made by the RBA that suggest they'll aim to keep the current rates on hold until 2025. In an uncertain environment mainly consisting of negative rates worldwide, the ability to offer stability, however small, speaks volumes. But is it enough to stave off economic risks associated with the pandemic?
Probably not. Risky Business The Australian currency will remain risk-sensitive, and with Covid-19 cases continuing to rise throughout Europe and America, demand for the 'Aussie' will potentially struggle to find enough demand. By contrast, the Pound looks to build on vaccine success and hopefully reignite the economy in June/July by further easing lockdowns.
The potential for GBPAUD to turn bullish longer-term looks more probable at this stage. The idea that the pair could resume an upward trajectory is backed up by some relatively strong technical signals on both the hourly and daily Ichimoku charts listed below. Ichimoku Hourly Chart Analysis Beginning with the hourly, we can see today's bearish price action is heading towards the previous weekly pivot point of 1.8010 before finding some support.
Despite the decisive move to the downside, now that the pair found some short-term support, we'd generally expect some corrective price behavior during the upcoming sessions. Notice the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) is also in heavily oversold territory, further fueling speculation to the upside. The current weekly pivot point of 1.8145 makes an attractive potential target or a consideration for resistance.
Ichimoku Daily Chart Analysis The daily Ichimoku chart helps put today's price moves into perspective, further highlighting the bullish indicators in play. Note, the current price action is still trading well above the cloud, as is the lagging span (purple line). The thickness of the cloud also suggests plenty of support above 1.80 levels.
Remaining Tentatively Bullish So despite the sudden bearish activity seen today, the outlook for GBPAUD remains bullish across multiple timeframes, not accounting for any new Covid-19 issues that may emerge. Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg