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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
You might have heard about Hong Kong in the news, recently they celebrated twenty years of “return to the motherland”. Before we discuss the HK50 index, it’s let’s briefly review the historical and political situation. You might be asking yourself, is Hong Kong a separate country or part of China? [caption id="attachment_57013" align="alignright" width="450"] Source: https://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/static/revamp/contents/en/dl_centre/factsheets/FS_HSIe.pdf [/caption] In the strictest sense, Hong Kong is part of China, her official name being Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China.
Confusingly, Hong Kong has her own immigration policy, money, stock exchange, postage stamps, flag, etc. This peculiar arrangement is due to the fact that Hong Kong was a British colony from 1841 to 1997. The treaty on “return” stipulated that Hong Kong would continue to operate in a different fashion than most of China, known as “One country, two systems”.
The Hang Seng 50 (HK50 on the GoTrader MT4) has a market capitalization-weighted index of 50 of the largest companies that trade on the Hong Kong Exchange. These companies cover approximately 65% of its total market capitalization. Finance represents almost half of the index.
An additional quarter is weighted in information technology, properties, and telecommunications. As you can see in the weekly view below, HK50 recently broke the 25,000 point mark for the first time in nearly two years. From an all-time high in April 2015, it was last over 25,000 in July 2015.
Continuing a rally from January 2016 which saw the index drop to a five year low. [caption id="attachment_57014" align="alignleft" width="600"] Source: Go Trader MT4 HK50[/caption] Despite the fact that the index’s constituent companies are listed in Hong Kong, 55% of the companies are based in China. A meteoric rise from 5% in 1997, 25% in 2003 and an all-time high of 59% in 2009. HK50 is tied at the hip to the Chinese economy.
How tied is HK50 to mainland Chinese companies you ask? On Tuesday July 4 th shares suffered their worst day in 2017, falling 1.5%, representing the biggest one-day percentage fall since December 15 th. Tencent, one of the ten most valuable companies in the world, headquartered in nearby Shenzhen and making up nearly 11% of the composite.
Tumbled 4% relating to recent negative comments around its popular one-line game products, we should continue to see growth as China's first-quarter GDP growth hit 6.9%, the highest level since the fall. By: Samuel Hertz GO Markets
Trading Forex - USD/CNH The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has doubled its share of global currency trading from 2013 to 2016, advancing from the ninth place to the sixth-most traded currency pair, according to the triennial survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements last year. This highlights the growing importance of the Chinese Yuan as a global currency. CNH (Chinese offshore yuan) and CNY (Chinese onshore yuan) A crucial difference between the two is that CNY is strictly controlled by the People’s Bank of China and only traded domestically while CNH is allowed to trade outside the mainland – mostly in Hong Kong.
The PBOC set the CNY rate every weekday and it can move within a 2% range during the day. Although the CNH rate is mostly determined by market forces, it tends to stay within close range of the CNY as per the chart below. A Fundamental look – Spot USDCNH U.S. and Chinese Industrial Production Latest figures show that U.S. industrial production was unchanged in February following a 0.1% drop in January, with 0.5% rise of manufacturing output for its sixth consecutive monthly increase.
Meanwhile, Chinese industrial production rose by 0.3% since January following a 0.2% decrease at the beginning of 2017. As coincident indicators of overall economic activity and GDP, these industrial production figures seem to influence positively on CNH more than USD before release of next month numbers. U.S. and Chinese CPI Chinese CPI weakened from 2.5% to 0.8% in March, 1.1% lower than market anticipation while U.S.
CPI declined from 0.6% to 0.1% in the same month and was higher than market forecast. This change of U.S. CPI was in line with the prediction and even 0.1% higher, contributing to achieving target inflation and further revising up U.S. dollars.
A declining CPI may be viewed as a positive on an already inflated Chinese economy. With the lowest three-month implied volatility among emerging market’s currencies, Chinese yuan is stated by Chinese policy makers as “stable” with no surprise now. An increase in M2 money supply despite Chinese restrictions on capital outflows may put more pressure of the CNY.
U.S. and Chinese Trade Balance 7 th March 2017 - $-60B, Chinese trade balance was much lower than forecast ($170B) and broke its long-term trend of trade surplus, levying a heavy burden on the depreciation of Chinese yuan. U.S. actual balance ($-48.5B) was slightly lower than anticipated ($-47B) leaving the USD unchanged. U.S.
Interest Rate Hike As per market expectation, the Federal Reserve voted to raise benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point, to a range of 0.75% to 1%, on the early morning of March 16 th (2pm, 15 th March, New York time). An inflation target of 2%, full-employment and stable prices are starting to come together indicating further hikes this year, giving momentum to increased investor confidence about an improving US economy. The Fed statement still projected two more interest-rate hikes this year, offering a strong bullish sentiment for U.S. dollars in the medium to long term.
Source: GO Markets MT4 Platform According to daily USD/CNH graph, it shows a clear-cut primary upward trend composed of increasing peaks and toughs since 2016, despite 3 retracements happened at the beginning of 2016, in July 2016 and at the end of last year. In 2017, a reversal has been pushed back since 2 nd Feb suggesting a consolidation around ¥6.8720. Further upside of USD/CNH looks likely and this uptrend seems likely to continue in the long run.
For short-term speculators, keeping an eye on relevant policies and events as well as doing more detailed technical analysis are both required. The Key Things Worth Nothing for Month Ahead New York Time 10am, 28th March U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 8.30am, 30th March U.S.
First Quarter GDP 8.30am, 4th April U.S. Trade Balance 2pm, 5th April U.S. FOMC meeting 8.30am, 7th April U.S.
Unemployment Rate 10pm, 12th April China Trade Balance, industrial Production and First Quarter GDP 8.30am, 14th April U.S. CPI 23rd April - 7th May First Round of French Presidential Election By Irene Wang, GO Markets For more resource on Forex trading check out our Forex Trading For Beginners introduction, Forex Trading Courses, open a Forex Demo Account or open a live Forex Trading Account.
There has been quite a lot of talk about oil in the news recently with some analysts suggesting the price could reach $100 per barrel, which would be the highest since 2014. Whether that will happen, that is another story. In this article, we take a look at world’s largest crude oil exporters.
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest crude oil exporter with $133,6 billion worth of oil exports in 2017 which was around 15,9% of the total crude oil exports in the world. The middle eastern country is highly reliant on its oil exports and it has the 2nd largest proven oil reserves in the world. In recent years, we have seen the Kingdom announce ''Saudi Vision 2030'' which outlines plans to diversify its economy to reduce its dependence on oil.
One of the most notable plans is the new city called Neom, you can find out more about the ambitious city plan by clicking here. Capital: Riyadh Official language: Arabic Population: 33,000,000 Gross Domestic Product: $683 billion Currency: Saudi riyal (SAR) Russia Russia is world’s second largest crude oil exporter at with $93,3 billion (11,1% of the total) worth of oil exports last year. Russia is the biggest country in the world and has the 11th largest economy in the world at $1,5 trillion, according to the World Bank.
It’s biggest export partners are the European Union, China and neighbour Belarus. Russia is 8th on the list of world’s largest proven oil reserves. Capital: Moscow Official language: Russian Population: 144,526,636 Gross Domestic Product: $1,5 trillion Currency: Russian ruble (RUB) Iraq Iraq is third on the list with $61,5 billion worth of oil exports in 2017, 7,3% of the total.
Iraq was one of the founding member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela when it was established back in 1960. Iraq’s economy is highly depended on oil with oil production accounting for 2/3 of the country’s GDP. Capital: Baghdad Official language: Arabic and Kurdish Population: 37,202,671 Gross Domestic Product: $202 billion Currency: Iraqi dinar (IQD) Canada The North American country is the fourth largest crude oil exporter in 2017 with $54 billion worth of crude oil exports (6,4% of the total).
Canada has the 3rd largest proven oil reserves with 95% of these reserves are in the oil sands deposits in the western province of Alberta. Capital: Ottawa Official language: English and French Population: 37,067,011 Gross Domestic Product: $1,6 trillion Currency: Canadian dollar (CAD) United Arab Emirates The United Arab Emirates, the third largest economy in the Middle East is the 5th largest crude oil exporter with $49,3 billion worth of oil exports in 2017 (5.9% of the total). Even though United Arab Emirates has the most diversified economy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional intergovernmental political and economic union which is made up of all Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, it is still highly dependent on oil.
Capital: Abu Dhabi Official language: Arabic Population: 9,575,729 Gross Domestic Product: $382 billion Currency: UAE dirham (AED) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Click here for more information on trading oil commodities.
Time Ticking for Brexit By Klavs Valters In just over a year – on 29 th March 2019 to be exact – Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union. It has been nearly a year since Theresa May triggered Article 50 and began the two-year process to negotiate an exit deal. As we know, the negotiations so far can’t be classed as successful.
Even though a breakthrough on the key issues of the deal (the Irish border, divorce bill, citizens’ rights and the European Court of Justice) was made back in December last year, there hasn’t been a great deal of clarity on how the relationship will look moving forward. A No-Deal Scenario A no deal would be bad news for both parties involved and could potentially cost £58 billion a year, with Britain’s financial sector taking the largest hit, according to a new research. The additional direct “red-tape cost” of tariff and non-tariff barriers would be £27 billion to UK firms and £31 billion to their EU counterparts, a report from global management consulting firm Oliver Wyman and law firm Clifford Chance estimates. “These increased costs and uncertainty threaten to reduce profitability and pose existential threats to some businesses ” the report stated.
Britain’s relationship with the EU would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules if no deal is in place by the end of a transitional period. This is set to start after the official Brexit deadline in March 2019 – a scenario which both sides would like to avoid. Five sectors – finance, automotive, agriculture, food and drink, and consumer goods would bear 70% of the burden of additional costs resulting from this scenario, according to the report.
The financial services industry would be hit the hardest and we are seeing some of the largest financial firms making plans of relocating their staff to other European Union countries. Last week, UBS and Goldman Sachs announced they had begun to transfer jobs to Frankfurt in preparation for Brexit. The Bank of England has also warned that around 10,000 jobs from the financial sector might leave by the end of next year because of Brexit.
Financial Markets GBP/USD Source: GO Markets MT4 At the end of January, we saw the Pound strengthen to its highest level since the Brexit referendum was announced. Since then we have seen the Pound weaken slightly against the US Dollar and currently trading at around 1.38 level (as of 13/3/18). EUR/GBP Source: GO Markets MT4 There hasn’t been too much movement against the Euro in recent months, however further developments in the talks will certainly have an impact moving forward.
The Euro currently trading at around 0.88 level against the Pound (as of 13/3/18). FTSE100 Source: GO Markets MT4 Since reaching its lowest level since the end of 2016 of around 6916, the FTSE100 has somewhat recovered the losses and currently trading at 7213 level (as of 13/3/18). Theresa May has repeatedly said that she wants a “strong and special relationship” and “Canada style trade deal” with the European Union and in every speech since the process began.
This hasn’t however given the public much clarity or confidence in what will happen. With the exit date just around the corner, can the “strong and stable” leader deliver the Brexit people of the UK voted for?
Last year the total sales of gold exports reached $310 billion mark. The top 5 countries made up a large portion of the total gold exports last year with shipments accounting to more than $177 billion, which was 57.30% of the world total. In 2011 we saw the price of gold reach record highs at over $1,900.
Since then we have seen the price fall and currently trading at around $1,219 level. In this article, we will take a look at the top 5 biggest gold exporters in the world. XAU/USD Monthly Chart Switzerland Switzerland was the largest gold exporter of gold in 2017 with $67.9 billion worth of exports which was around 21.9% of the total.
European Union is Switzerland ’s largest trading partner with 46.6% of all Swiss exports by value being delivered to the EU. Switzerland has the 20th largest economy in the world at $678 billion and 3rd in the world per capita at $80,189. Capital: Bern Official languages: German, French and Italian Population: 8,508,898 Gross Domestic Product: $678 billion Currency: Swiss Franc (CHF) Hong Kong Hong Kong, officially known as Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China is the second largest exporter in the world with exports worth up to $52.2 billion, 16.8% of the total in 2017.
Hong Kong has the 33rd largest economy in the world at $341 billion and 16th per capita at $46,193. Hong Kong is the 2nd largest foreign exchange market in Asia and 4th largest in the world in 2016 with a daily average turnover of forex transaction reaching $437 billion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Official languages: Chinese and English Population: 7,448,900 Gross Domestic Product: $341 billion Currency: Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) United Arab Emirates The United Arab Emirates is the third largest exporter of gold with $20.7 billion or 6.7% of the total world exports in 2017.
The United Arab Emirates has world’s 19th largest economy at $638 billion, and it’s the third largest in the Middle East, behind Saudi Arabia and Iran. Capital: Abu Dhabi Official language: Arabic Population: 9,575,729 Gross Domestic Product: $383 billion Currency: UAE dirham (AED) United States With exports worth $19.8 billion, United States is the fourth on the list of the largest exporters of gold which is about 6.4% of the world total. As you probably may know, the US has the largest economy in the world at a whopping $19 trillion.
Even though the US has the largest economy in the world, it also tops the list for the country with the largest total debt at over $18 trillion. Capital: Washington D.C. Official language: English Population: 325,719,178 Gross Domestic Product: $19 trillion Currency: United States Dollar (USD) United Kingdom The United Kingdom is fifth on the list of the largest gold exporters in the world at $17 billion worth of exports in 2017, which is 5.5% of the world total.
Same as on this list, it is also the fifth largest economy in the world at $2.6 trillion total Gross Domestic Product. United Kingdom is the home of the world’s second largest financial center in London, according to the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI) report. Capital: London Official language: English Population: 66,040,229 Gross Domestic Product: $2.6 trillion Currency: Pound Sterling (GBP) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper
By Deepta Bolaky Trade and geopolitical risks were at the forefront of the meltdown that rattled the markets on Friday. Turkey’s currency crisis prompted a massive sell-off across the markets hitting the European banking sectors the hardest. Fears began to mount as investors freted its rippling effects on the global markets.
The current risks and a hawkish Fed are giving rise to the “Strong Dollar Story” which are putting pressure on developed and emerging economies. Emerging markets are mostly being hit by rising protectionist measures and US sanctions. There was growing interest in the Earning Markets and the overall outlook was promising until rising protectionist measures started kicking-in.
Contagion Effect A diplomatic row between the US and Turkey sparked a contagion fear globally, resulting into new “lows” in the Forex markets at a time where major currencies were already facing a strong US dollar. EURUSD – Banking contagion The Turkish lira lost more than 13% against the dollar on Friday. The weakness in the Lira has elevated Turkey’s debt burden and the ECB expressed its concerns about the exposure of the European banks with Turkey.
The shared currency slipped on Friday and EURUSD fell to one- year low. Even though the contagion might have some lingering effects in the eurozone banking sector in the short-term, we note that bank supervisors might be able to pull tools at their disposal to contain the damage in the long-run. The key risk for the Euro might therefore be the policy divergence.
On the technical side, the pair has formed a descending triangle which indicates a bearish formation whereas the RSI value is currently at 28.916 indicating oversold conditions. The overall situation may suggest that EURUSD could bounce off before incurring deeper losses. NZDUSD – NZ-US interest rate advantage The New Zealand dollar was dragged down by subdued fundamentals at a time where the NZ-US interest rate advantage has been eroded.
The Kiwi was battered by the dovish statement by the RBNZ and the contagion fears following the currency crisis in Turkey. A sour risk tone in the markets is hauling the NZD pairs from a” negative” to a “bearish” outlook. The NZDUSD pair dropped to two-year low.
The pair has made a minor bounce back. Any move passed last week’s lowest level would most likely indicate the presence of sellers and can potentially drag the pair pass the 0.6400 level. Any sustained move above 0.6570 level will signal presence of buyers.
This can also be the profit-taking or counter-trend buying. AUDUSD The Australian Dollar is also feeling the heat of the geopolitical risks and a dovish RBA. The week kicked off on a sour note and AUDUSD fell below an important trendline at 0.7350.
The slide can continue if the contagion fears escalate in the Eurozone and risk aversion persists. AUDUSD bounced back after gapping lower on Monday. It is currently trading in the one-year low range.
Technically, the pair is also in a descending triangle suggesting a bearish trend but traders should keep an eye on the RSI which is moving towards the oversold conditions. This situation can also be driven by some short-covering rallies. GBPUSD- Brexit saga The pair is trapped at the 12-month lows as the volatility of a “no-deal” Brexit has increased.
The Sterling was already on the backfoot with the Brexit tensions and a full-blown return of risk aversion could open up further downside opportunities for the Cable. GBP bulls will have to rely on a series of data scheduled over the week for fresh impetus. Moving on to the emerging markets, contagion is the “buzzword of the week” and appears to be flowing through the emerging markets.
Emerging currencies are sliding under the influence of a stronger US dollar and currency crisis in Turkey. The rising contagion fears has even caused a flash crash in the South African Rand. As of this writing, Turkey’s central bank has announced intervention measures which is bringing some relief and toning down the bearish outlook in the Forex and equity markets.