Market jumps on the back of weak USD and better then expected earnings
GO Markets
29/8/2022
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The US stock market saw one of its best days in months, as speculation swirled that the 'bottom' may be in. The indices gained their momentum from better-than-expected earnings and a weakening of the USD, with the USDX dropping to $106.58. With more earnings still to come better than expected results may see the S&P500 and markets break out of their current downtrend.
The Nasdaq ended the trading session up 3.38%, the Dow Jones rose 2.43% and the S&P500 moved 2.78% higher. This should lead to a positive start on the ASX with the XJO futures up 83.2 points or 1.25% at 9:01, Australian Eastern Standard time. The commodity markets saw a solid rebound with Gold and Oil both pushing back from recent losses.
Brent is now back over $100.00 a barrel whilst Gold is hovering above $1700. The news in the foreign exchange market was the drop in the USD, which also saw strength coming into the AUD. The AUDUSD was able to test its recent resistance point at $0.6860 and is now testing the $0.6900 level.
The EUR moved similarly to the AUD also moving up against the USD. There is growing sentiment that ECB members could discuss a 25 or 50 basis point hike at their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, the EU has indicated it will soften sanctions on Russia, and Russian gas giant Gazprom will resume its gas provision to the EU on July 21.
Later today, the market can expect updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Lowe speaks and UK CPI figures for the year will be announced as well. Cryptocurrencies saw a nice breakout with the Bitcoin pushing above 24,000 USD as the market pushed the money back into risk assets. The cryptocurrency broke out of a month-long consolidation in a show of strength.
Ethereum followed suit rising almost 6%.
By
GO Markets
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain our Disclosure Statement (DS) and other legal documents available on our website for that product before making any decisions.
Start with what actually happened to FX markets in the lead-up to April: there was a geopolitical shock and oil supply out of the Middle East came under pressure. The immediate reaction across currency markets was the one traders have seen before: money moved toward safety, toward yield, and away from anything that looked exposed to the disruption.
Safe-haven flows meet yield divergence
The US dollar benefited from both of those forces at once. It is a safe haven and it also carries a yield advantage that most of its peers cannot match right now. The Swiss franc picked up some of the overflow from European risk aversion. The yen, which used to attract safe-haven flows almost automatically, is stuck in a different situation altogether where the yield gap against the dollar is now so wide that safe-haven logic has been overridden by carry logic.
The currencies that had the toughest month were the ones caught in the middle: risk-sensitive, commodity-linked, or running policy rates that simply cannot compete. The New Zealand dollar is the clearest example while the Australian dollar is a messier story. Sitting underneath all of it is a repricing of 2026 rate cut expectations that central banks in multiple countries are now reassessing.
DXY context
Regained 100 on geopolitical risk
Strongest currency
USD — safe haven plus yield
Weakest currency
NZD — yield gap plus energy
Main central bank theme
Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths
Main catalyst ahead
Fed and BOJ policy meetings
Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers
01USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak
Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)
The US dollar spent most of 2025 gradually losing ground as the Fed cut rates and the rest of the world played catch-up. That story stalled hard in late March. The Iran conflict changed the calculus, and the dollar reasserted itself in a way that reflects something real about its structural position in global markets.
The US exports oil and when energy prices rise, that is a terms-of-trade improvement, not a terms-of-trade shock. Most of the dollar's major peers sit on the other side of that equation. Add a policy rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% that now looks locked in for longer, and the dollar's advantage is both cyclical and structural at the same time. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has regained the 100 level but tThe question heading into April is whether it holds there or pushes further.
Key drivers
Safe-haven demand:
The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
Yield advantage:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
Energy insulation:
The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
Rate cut repricing:
Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.
What markets are watching next
The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.
The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.
Weakest mover: New Zealand dollar (NZD)
If you wanted to design a currency that would struggle in the current environment, the NZD fits the brief almost perfectly. It is risk-sensitive. It is commodity-linked. It runs a policy rate of 2.25%, which sits below the Fed and now below the RBA as well. New Zealand is also an energy importer, so rising oil prices hit the trade balance and the domestic inflation outlook at the same time.
None of those things are new but the combination of all of them hitting at once, against a backdrop of a surging dollar and broad risk-off sentiment, has compressed the NZD in a way that is hard to ignore. The carry trade that once made NZD attractive has reversed as capital has been moving out, not in.
Key drivers
Energy import exposure:
Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
Yield gap:
The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
Risk-off positioning:
As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
Trade uncertainty:
Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.
Risks and constraints
Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is the pair that most clearly illustrates what happens when a currency's safe-haven status gets overridden by carry logic. The yen used to be the first port of call for traders looking for protection during geopolitical stress. That dynamic has been suppressed, and the reason is straightforward: you give up too much yield to hold yen right now.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy rate sits at 0.75% while the Fed's sits at 3.50% to 3.75% and that gap does not encourage safe-haven flows. It encourages borrowing in yen and deploying elsewhere. So while the dollar rose on geopolitical risk, the yen fell on the same event. That is not how it is supposed to work, but it is how the maths works out when yield differentials are this wide.
USD/JPY is sitting near 159, which leaves it not far from the 160 level that Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently flagged as a line requiring attention. The BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April is now a genuinely live event.
Key events to watch
Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT):
March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST):
Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
Intervention watch:
Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.
What could shift the outlook
A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.
For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.
Data to watch next
Four events stand out as the clearest potential FX catalysts in the weeks ahead. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations, and rate expectations are driving much of the move in FX right now.
Key dates and FX sensitivity
30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT
A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.
3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT
A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.
10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST
The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.
27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST
The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.
Key levels and signals
These are the reference points that traders and policymakers are watching most closely. Each one represents a potential trigger for a shift in positioning or an official response.
◆
DXY 100.00
A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.
◆
Brent crude US$120
A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.
One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.
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ASX defence stocks are back on more watchlists and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending reached approximately US$2.718 trillion in 2024, up 9.4% in real terms.
Australia’s current defence settings are set out in the 2024 National Defence Strategy and related investment planning documents, which outline long-term capability funding priorities. Furthermore, Canberra has pointed to A$330 billion of capability investment through 2034, including added funding for surface combatants, preparedness, long-range strike and autonomous systems.
Here is the part most people miss: not all ASX defence stocks are the same trade. Some sit close to naval shipbuilding. Some are counter-drone names and some are smaller, higher-risk operators where one contract may matter much more than the market assumes.
These five names are not a buy list, rather they are a practical watchlist for investors trying to understand where procurement momentum may actually show up on the ASX.
1) Austal (ASX: ASB)
Austal is one of the ASX-listed companies most directly exposed to Australia’s naval shipbuilding pipeline, although contract execution, margins and delivery timing remain important variables.
They aren't just winning random contracts; they have signed a massive legal agreement (the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement) that makes them the official partner for building Australia's next generation of mid-sized military ships in Western Australia.
In February 2026, the government gave Austal the green light on a $4 billion project. This isn't for just one ship, it’s for 8 "Landing Craft Heavy" vessels. These are huge transport ships (about 100 metres long) designed to carry heavy tanks and equipment directly onto a beach. But here is the part most people miss, shipbuilding is a marathon, not a sprint.
As you can see in the delivery timeline, while construction starts in 2026, the final ship won't be delivered until 2038. For an investor, this means Austal has a "guaranteed" stream of income for the next 12 years, but they have to be very good at managing their costs over that long period to actually make a profit.
2) DroneShield (ASX: DRO)
If you have seen footage of small drones disrupting modern battlefields, DroneShield is building part of the "off switch". Its focus is counter-drone technology, including systems that detect, disrupt or defeat drones using electronic warfare, sensors and software-led tools, rather than relying only on traditional munitions.
By early 2026, DroneShield had moved beyond the label of a promising start-up and into a much larger commercial phase. It reported FY2025 revenue of A$216.5 million, up 276% from FY2024, and said it started FY2026 with A$103.5 million in committed revenue.
One point the market may overlook is the software layer in the model. DroneShield reported A$11.6 million in Software as a Service (SaaS) revenue in FY2025 and said it is working towards SaaS making up 30% of revenue within five years. Its subscription model includes software updates for deployed systems, which adds a growing stream of recurring revenue alongside hardware sales.
Among ASX defence stocks, DroneShield is one of the most direct ways to follow the counter-UAS theme. It is also one of the names where sentiment can swing quickly, because growth stories can rerate both up and down when order timing changes.
EOS builds both the "brain" and the "muscle" for military platforms. It is best known for remote weapon systems, which allow operators to control armed turrets from inside protected vehicles, and for high-energy laser systems aimed at counter-drone defence. EOS has said its unconditional backlog reached about A$459.1 million in early 2026, following a series of contract wins through 2025. That points to a much larger base of secured work, although delivery timing and revenue conversion still matter.
EOS signed a €71.4 million, about A$125 million, contract with a European customer for a 100-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon system. EOS says the system is designed for a low cost per shot and can engage up to 20 drones a minute. The Australian Government has set aside A$1.3 billion over 10 years for counter-drone capability acquisition, and EOS has disclosed that it was part of a successful LAND 156 bid team. That does not guarantee future revenue, but it does support medium-term visibility in a market the company is already targeting.
EOS reads as a rebound story, but one that still depends on execution. The company has reoriented around remote weapon systems, counter-drone systems and lasers, all areas tied to stronger defence spending. The key question is whether it can keep converting backlog and pipeline into delivered revenue while maintaining balance-sheet discipline.
4) Codan (ASX: CDA)
Codan is sometimes left out of casual defence stock lists because it is more diversified. That may be an oversight. In its H1 FY26 results, Codan said its Communications business designs mission-critical communications for global military and public safety markets. Communications revenue rose 19% to A$221.8 million. The company also said DTC delivered strong growth from defence and unmanned systems demand, with unmanned systems revenue up 68% to A$73 million. Codan said about half of that unmanned revenue was linked to operational defence applications in conflict zones.
This is where the story becomes more nuanced. In a basket of ASX defence stocks, Codan may offer a different profile, with less pure headline sensitivity, broader operating diversification and meaningful exposure to military communications and unmanned systems without being a single-theme name. That diversification may also mean the stock does not always trade like a pure-play defence name.
HighCom sits at the speculative end of this list, and it should be labelled that way. The company says its two continuing businesses are HighCom Armor, which supplies ballistic protection, and HighCom Technology, which supplies and maintains small and medium uncrewed aerial systems, counter-uncrewed aerial systems, and related engineering, integration, maintenance and logistics support for the ADF and other aligned regional militaries.
In H1 FY26, revenue from continuing operations fell 59% to A$10.9 million, while EBITDA moved to a A$5.4 million loss from a A$1.9 million profit a year earlier. HighCom also disclosed A$5.1 million in HighCom Technology revenue, including A$3.5 million from small uncrewed aerial systems (SUAS) spare parts and A$1.6 million from sustainment services provided to the Australian Department of Defence.
So yes, HighCom is one of the more financially sensitive ASX defence stocks on the board. But it is also the kind of smaller name that can show how procurement filters down into support, sustainment and specialist protection gear.
Key market observations
Track program milestones, not just political headlines. Contract awards, manufacturing starts, delivery schedules and sustainment work often matter more than a single announcement day.
Separate pure-play exposure from diversified exposure. DroneShield and EOS are closer to concentrated defence technology themes, while Codan brings communications exposure within a broader business mix.
Watch sovereign capability themes in Australia. Austal and EOS are tied to local manufacturing, integration and Australian supply chains, which supports the broader sovereign capability theme in this group.
Pay attention to balance sheets and cash conversion. Procurement momentum can be real even when timing gets messy. HighCom's latest half is a reminder of that.
Defence headlines can look immediate. Earnings usually are not. Austal's major naval work stretches into the next decade. EOS contracts are delivered over multiple years. DroneShield's order flow appears strong, but the company still separates committed revenue from broader pipeline opportunity. HighCom shows the other side of the coin. Exposure to procurement does not automatically translate into smooth financial execution.
References to ASX-listed defence stocks are general information only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or CFD. These stocks can be highly volatile and are sensitive to contract timing, government policy, geopolitics, execution risk and market conditions. Backlog, pipeline and revenue expectations are not guarantees of future performance.
So here is the thing: April’s US earnings season is arriving in a market that still feels anything but normal. As GO Markets explains in The global US earnings playbook: The essential guide for traders, this reporting period is landing after a real shift in what markets care about. It is no longer just about chasing growth at any cost. It is about what the numbers are saying beneath the surface.
And in 2026, those signals are colliding with a high-friction backdrop:
Geopolitical conflict: Ongoing tension in the Middle East
Oil supply shock: Brent crude above US$100
The Fed: A central bank still boxed in by sticky inflation
The durability pivot
Yes, AI is still the market’s main story but it's still the flashy engine getting most of the attention. But underneath that, there is a quieter move towards companies that look built to hold up better when conditions get harder.
When rates are uncertain and energy markets are under pressure, names like JPMorgan Chase and the major defence contractors start to carry more weight. They are not replacing the AI narrative, rather, they are becoming part of the way traders read risk appetite, earnings durability and, ultimately, where the market is looking for something more solid to hold on to.
!
Important: Reporting schedules can change without notice. Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are from third-party market consensus sources, as of 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are from the latest company filings or results presentations unless stated otherwise. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
$JPM| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
NYSE | Financial Services | 14 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$5.42
Consensus Revenue
US$47.88bn
AU/ASIA14 Apr | 8:45 pm
US/LATAM14 Apr | 6:45 am
Market Intelligence: $JPM
Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
NII guidance
~US$103 billion
Full year | US$95 billionn ex:markets
ROTCE target
17%
Possible return on tangible common equity
Analyst range
US$5.02-5.70
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$5.02AVG US$5.39HIGH US$5.70
The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result above consensus but below the high end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A result above US$5.70 may shift the discussion.
Key swing factors for the result
Net interest income (NII)
The clearest macro lever. It reflects the gap between lending rates and deposit costs.
Guidance: US$103 billion for the full year
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)
A scale check. It indicates whether JPM is converting scale into efficiency. 17% is the benchmark.
Target: 17% ROTCE
Trading and investment banking
Strong Q1 growth was expected in fees and markets revenue. These lines can offset softness in lending, and stronger-than-expected performance here may shift the narrative away from rate sensitivity.
Watch: investment banking (IB) fees versus the prior quarter
Expense discipline
A bank can beat the EPS estimate and still sell off if expense growth is running too hot. Pairing the EPS result with the expense trajectory gives a fuller read on whether the beat is durable.
Watch: Expense outlook commentary
Trade Execution: $JPM
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$5.70, NII on track | ROTCE at or above 17%
The result comes in above the top of the analyst range. NII guidance holds or is revised higher. IB fees and markets revenue show strong Q1 growth. Expense commentary is constructive.
Possible reaction: momentum and repositioning
Base case
EPS between US$5.39 and US$5.70, NII in line | ROTCE near target
The result beats consensus but stays within the expected range. NII tracks guidance. The tone of the conference call may matter more than the headline number. The first move may fade if guidance is unchanged.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$5.39 | NII misses | Expense growth surprises
The result comes in at or below the consensus midpoint. NII guidance is cut or qualified. Expense growth comes in above market expectations. IB or markets revenue disappoints.
Possible reaction: earnings multiple repricing
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase
Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum
AI-linked offset, beat supported by NII and ROTCE
Stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related industrial lending may offset softer mortgage activity. Management maintains guidance as NII remains resilient in higher-for-longer conditions. IB fees and markets revenue may provide additional support. ROTCE at or above 17% would suggest the bank is converting scale into earnings efficiently.
EPS Outcome
Above US$5.70
NII Signal
On track
ROTCE
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Momentum may build
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From credit to defence
If JPMorgan gives the market an early read on the consumer, credit quality and business activity, the defence names may be telling a different story. This is the point where the focus may start to shift from the credit cycle to government-backed demand.
In a market still shaped by geopolitical risk, that matters. Long-dated programs can help support revenue visibility, even when the broader outlook looks less certain. That is one reason the sector remains on the watchlist.
$LMT| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Lockheed Martin Corp.
NYSE | Aerospace | Defense | 22 Apr 2026
Estimated
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.50
Consensus Revenue
US$16.32bn
AU | ASIA22 Apr | 9:20 pm
US | LATAM22 Apr | 7:20 am
Market Intelligence: $LMT
Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Order backlog
US$194 billionn
Record visibility
Book-to-bill
1.2x
Orders outpacing sales
Analyst range
US$6.90-7.10
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90AVG ~US$6.94HIGH US$7.10+
The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That positioning may leave room for upside if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines support execution. A print near the high end, above US$7.10, may extend the move, although the reaction would still depend on guidance and margins.
Key swing factors for the result
Backlog visibility
Primary evidence of demand. Book-to-bill above 1.2x would support full-year guidance and the production ramp.
Backlog: US$194 billion record
Free cash flow (FCF)
Defence stocks are often assessed on cash conversion. The market may look for confirmation of the US$6.5 billion floor.
Guide: US$6.5 billion - $6.8 billion
Missile segment growth
PrSM and THAAD deliveries remain key watchpoints. Strong space margins may help offset softness in aeronautics.
Watch: Fire Control margins
Margin pressure
Pension charges and production inflation remain risks. An earnings beat may fade if operating margins contract.
The result clears the upper half of the analyst range. Management reaffirms or raises the full-year FCF outlook. Strong Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) margins help offset any aeronautics supply chain lag.
Possible reaction: momentum may build and positioning may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.30 and US$6.70 | Backlog steady at about US$194 billion
The result aligns with the US$6.38 consensus. F-35 delivery pace remains on track but offers no meaningful upside surprise. The market may wait for more specific segment guidance on the conference call.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
The result falls towards the bottom of the analyst spread. Management cites further software delays or program losses. The FCF trajectory narrows towards the lower end of previous expectations.
Possible reaction: the share price may come under pressure
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin
Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Select earnings outcome
Backlog confirmed
Backlog and FCF confirmation may support continuation
EPS clears the top of the analyst range. Backlog holds at or above US$194 billion and book-to-bill stays above 1.2, which would suggest orders are replenishing faster than revenue is being recognised. FCF guidance holds within the stated range.
EPS outcome
Above US$7.00
Backlog signal
Above US$194 billion
FCF guide
Holds or improves
Likely reaction
Continuation may follow
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Not all defence names are the same
Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may sit in the same defence bucket, but the market does not always read them the same way. Lockheed is more closely tied to the F-35 and current air combat demand. Northrop is more closely linked to next-generation programs such as the B-21 Raider and Sentinel.
That gives this section its contrast. One is often read through the lens of current defence demand. The other is more closely tied to longer-cycle strategic modernisation.
$NOC| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Northrop Grumman Corp.
NYSE | Defense | Space Systems | 23 Apr 2026
Estimated
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.12
Consensus Revenue
US$10.24 billion
AU | ASIA23 Apr | 10:30 pm
US | LATAM23 Apr | 8:30 am
Market Intelligence: $NOC
Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Consensus EPS
US$6.96
Quarterly analyst average
Order Backlog
US$95.7 billion
Record revenue visibility
FY 2026 EPS guide
US$27.40-US$27.90
Full-year 2026 outlook
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90AVG ~US$6.96HIGH US$7.20+
The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That offers a quick visual for whether the result is merely in line or strong enough to ease the guidance concerns that weighed on the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 may shift the conversation more materially.
Key swing factors for the result
Book-to-bill ratio
Currently at 1.10, suggesting orders are still running ahead of revenue recognition. This remains an important signal for multi-year growth visibility in defence.
Watch: 1.10 target
Guidance reset risk
Management’s guidance previously came in below market expectations. The market may be sensitive to any further softening in the 2026 outlook.
Watch: guidance commentary
Program concentration
The B-21 Raider and Sentinel carry outsized execution sensitivity. Updates on production ramp and funding may be the clearest drivers of sentiment for the stock.
Watch: B-21 and Sentinel updates
Capacity investment
Higher capital expenditure (capex) supports the industrial base over the longer term, but it may pressure near-term margins. Watch for signs that current investment is weighing on earnings power.
The result comes in above the cited threshold. Management says B-21 Raider production is ahead of schedule, with improving margins. Sentinel program restructuring costs remain below baseline expectations. International awards lift the book-to-bill ratio above 1.15.
Possible reaction: momentum may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.00 and US$6.20, backlog steady at about US$95.7 billion
The result is broadly in line with the cited range. FCF targets for 2026 are reaffirmed but not expanded. Market focus shifts to organic sales growth metrics and segment operating margins. The initial reaction may depend on the timing of B-21 milestone payments.
The result lands near the low end of the analyst spread. Management flags higher infrastructure costs for Sentinel or delays in restricted space segment awards. Margin pressure in Aeronautics persists, and the 2026 revenue guide narrows towards the US$43.5 billion floor.
Possible reaction: shares may weaken
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman
Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Select earnings outcome
Stealth momentum
B-21 momentum, stronger execution and FCF support
EPS clears US$6.15. Management confirms a production capacity agreement for the B-21 Raider. Sentinel restructuring reaches Milestone B on schedule. Record backlog visibility and higher FCF guidance towards US$3.5 billion may support broader repositioning.
EPS outcome
Above US$6.15
B-21 Signal
Acceleration
FCF guide
$3.5 billionn range
Likely reaction
Momentum rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Bottom line
In a market shaped by geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations, companies with visible demand and longer-cycle revenue may continue to attract attention. But sentiment can still turn quickly if valuations are stretched, rate expectations shift again, or tensions in the Middle East ease.
That is why the story still needs to be tested against the numbers, not just the narrative. GO Markets will be analysing more companies throughout this earnings season. For more updates, visit our
earnings page,
follow our social media channels, or check the weekly newsletters.
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Start with what actually happened to FX markets in the lead-up to April: there was a geopolitical shock and oil supply out of the Middle East came under pressure. The immediate reaction across currency markets was the one traders have seen before: money moved toward safety, toward yield, and away from anything that looked exposed to the disruption.
Safe-haven flows meet yield divergence
The US dollar benefited from both of those forces at once. It is a safe haven and it also carries a yield advantage that most of its peers cannot match right now. The Swiss franc picked up some of the overflow from European risk aversion. The yen, which used to attract safe-haven flows almost automatically, is stuck in a different situation altogether where the yield gap against the dollar is now so wide that safe-haven logic has been overridden by carry logic.
The currencies that had the toughest month were the ones caught in the middle: risk-sensitive, commodity-linked, or running policy rates that simply cannot compete. The New Zealand dollar is the clearest example while the Australian dollar is a messier story. Sitting underneath all of it is a repricing of 2026 rate cut expectations that central banks in multiple countries are now reassessing.
DXY context
Regained 100 on geopolitical risk
Strongest currency
USD — safe haven plus yield
Weakest currency
NZD — yield gap plus energy
Main central bank theme
Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths
Main catalyst ahead
Fed and BOJ policy meetings
Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers
01USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak
Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)
The US dollar spent most of 2025 gradually losing ground as the Fed cut rates and the rest of the world played catch-up. That story stalled hard in late March. The Iran conflict changed the calculus, and the dollar reasserted itself in a way that reflects something real about its structural position in global markets.
The US exports oil and when energy prices rise, that is a terms-of-trade improvement, not a terms-of-trade shock. Most of the dollar's major peers sit on the other side of that equation. Add a policy rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% that now looks locked in for longer, and the dollar's advantage is both cyclical and structural at the same time. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has regained the 100 level but tThe question heading into April is whether it holds there or pushes further.
Key drivers
Safe-haven demand:
The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
Yield advantage:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
Energy insulation:
The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
Rate cut repricing:
Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.
What markets are watching next
The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.
The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.
Weakest mover: New Zealand dollar (NZD)
If you wanted to design a currency that would struggle in the current environment, the NZD fits the brief almost perfectly. It is risk-sensitive. It is commodity-linked. It runs a policy rate of 2.25%, which sits below the Fed and now below the RBA as well. New Zealand is also an energy importer, so rising oil prices hit the trade balance and the domestic inflation outlook at the same time.
None of those things are new but the combination of all of them hitting at once, against a backdrop of a surging dollar and broad risk-off sentiment, has compressed the NZD in a way that is hard to ignore. The carry trade that once made NZD attractive has reversed as capital has been moving out, not in.
Key drivers
Energy import exposure:
Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
Yield gap:
The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
Risk-off positioning:
As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
Trade uncertainty:
Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.
Risks and constraints
Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is the pair that most clearly illustrates what happens when a currency's safe-haven status gets overridden by carry logic. The yen used to be the first port of call for traders looking for protection during geopolitical stress. That dynamic has been suppressed, and the reason is straightforward: you give up too much yield to hold yen right now.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy rate sits at 0.75% while the Fed's sits at 3.50% to 3.75% and that gap does not encourage safe-haven flows. It encourages borrowing in yen and deploying elsewhere. So while the dollar rose on geopolitical risk, the yen fell on the same event. That is not how it is supposed to work, but it is how the maths works out when yield differentials are this wide.
USD/JPY is sitting near 159, which leaves it not far from the 160 level that Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently flagged as a line requiring attention. The BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April is now a genuinely live event.
Key events to watch
Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT):
March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST):
Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
Intervention watch:
Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.
What could shift the outlook
A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.
For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.
Data to watch next
Four events stand out as the clearest potential FX catalysts in the weeks ahead. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations, and rate expectations are driving much of the move in FX right now.
Key dates and FX sensitivity
30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT
A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.
3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT
A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.
10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST
The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.
27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST
The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.
Key levels and signals
These are the reference points that traders and policymakers are watching most closely. Each one represents a potential trigger for a shift in positioning or an official response.
◆
DXY 100.00
A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.
◆
Brent crude US$120
A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.
One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.
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Here is the situation as April begins. A war is affecting one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Brent crude is trading above US$100. And the Federal Reserve (Fed), which spent much of 2025 engineering a soft landing, is now facing an inflation threat driven less by wages, services or the domestic economy, and more by energy. It is watching an oil shock.
The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on 28 and 29 April and the key question for markets is not whether the Fed will cut, it is whether the Fed can cut, or whether the energy shock may have shut that door for much of 2026.
A heavy run of major data releases lands in April. The March consumer price index (CPI), non-farm payrolls (NFP) and the advance estimate of Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) are the three that matter most. But the FOMC statement on 29 April may be the release that sets the tone for the rest of the year.
Fed Funds Rate
3.50%–3.75%
Next FOMC
28–29 April 2026
Brent crude
Above US$100
Key data events
12 major releases
Growth: Business activity and demand
Think about what the US economy looked like coming into this year: AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) was a major part of the growth narrative, corporate investment intentions looked firm and the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act was already in the mix. On paper, the growth story looked solid.
Then the Strait of Hormuz situation changed the calculus. Not because the US is a net energy importer, it is not, and that structural insulation matters. But what is good for US energy producers can still squeeze margins elsewhere and weigh on global demand. The 30 April advance Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate is now likely to be read through two lenses: how strong was the economy before the shock, and what it may signal about the quarters ahead.
Key dates (AEST)
2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets look for
Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors
How this data may move markets
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Equities
Stronger than expected growth
↑ Yields rise
↑ Firmer
Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
Risk off if stagflation narrative builds
Labour: Payrolls and employment
February's jobs report was, depending on how you read it, either a blip or a warning sign. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) fell by 92,000, unemployment edged up to 4.4% and the official line was that weather played a role. That may be true but here is what also happened. The labour market suddenly looked a little less convincing as the main argument for keeping rates elevated.
The 3 April employment report for March is now genuinely consequential. A bounce back to positive payroll growth would probably steady nerves and a second consecutive soft print, particularly against a backdrop of higher energy prices, would start to build a very uncomfortable narrative for the Fed. It would be looking at slower jobs growth and an inflation threat at the same time. That is not a comfortable place to be.
Key dates (AEST)
3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
Medium
What markets look for
A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising
Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE
Here is the uncomfortable truth about where inflation sits right now. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred gauge, was already running at 3.1% year on year in January, before any oil shock had fed through. The Fed had not fully solved its inflation problem, rather, it had slowed it down. That is a different thing.
And now, on top of a not-quite-solved inflation problem, oil prices have moved sharply higher. Energy prices can feed into the consumer price index (CPI) relatively quickly, through petrol, transport and logistics costs that can eventually show up in the price of nearly everything. The 10 April CPI print for March is probably the most important single data release of the month, it is the one that may tell us whether the energy shock is already showing up in the numbers the Fed watches.
Key dates (AEST)
10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets look for
Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings
How this data may move markets
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Gold
Cooling core inflation
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation
↑ Yields rise
↑ Firmer
↓ Headwind
Policy, trade and earnings
April is also the start of US earnings season, and this quarter's results carry an unusual amount of weight. Investors have been pouring capital into AI infrastructure on the basis that returns are coming. The question is when. With geopolitical volatility driving a rotation away from growth-oriented technology and towards energy and defence, JPMorgan Chase's 14 April earnings will be read as much for what management says about the macro environment as for the numbers themselves.
Then there is the FOMC meeting on 28 and 29 April. After the early-April run of data, including NFP, CPI and producer price index (PPI), the Fed will have more than enough information to update its language. Whether it signals that rate cuts could remain on hold through 2026, or whether it leaves the door slightly ajar, may be the most consequential communication of the quarter.
Geopolitical volatility has already pushed investors to reassess growth-heavy positioning. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is also coming under heavier scrutiny on return on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
Monitor this month (AEST)
◆
14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings
The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.
◆
15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings
A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.
◆
28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement
The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.
◆
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic
A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.
◆
Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions
Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.
The Bigger Picture
Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
