市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


Walmart tops expectations for Q2 – the stock is up Walmart Inc. (WMT) announced its Q2 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain reported results that exceeded analyst expectations, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $152.859 billion (up by 8.4% year-over-year) vs. $150.994 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $1.77 per share for the quarter vs. $1.62 per share estimate. Doug McMillon, President and CEO of Walmart commented on the latest results: ''We’re pleased to see more customers choosing Walmart during this inflationary period, and we’re working hard to support them as they prioritize their spending. The actions we’ve taken to improve inventory levels in the U.S., along with a heavier mix of sales in grocery put pressure on profit margin for Q2 and our outlook for the year.
We made good progress throughout the quarter operationally to improve costs in our supply chain, and that work is ongoing. We continue to build on our strategy to expand our digital businesses, including the continued strength we see in our international markets.'' Walmart Inc. (WMT) chart The stock was up by over 6% on Tuesday, trading at $140.233 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +8.62% 3 Month +7.14% Year-to-date -2.74% 1 Year -6.62% Walmart price targets Deutsche Bank $142 Raymond James $140 BMO Capital $160 Cowen & Co. $150 Morgan Stanley $145 UBS $152 Credit Suisse $133 Wells Fargo $130 Walmart is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $383.98 billion.
You can trade Walmart Inc. (WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The USDJPY has been in an extremely strong upward trend since September 2021. This pair's recent price action has also been charactarised by relatively weak retracements as it has trended higher. Inflationary pressures have acted as a strong catalyst for the USD against most other currencies further aided by the Federal Reserve taking a strong stance against inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes.
At the same time, the JPY has remained weak as the Central Bank of Japan has refused to intervene and shift from its dovish stance. The most recent retracement shows the potential for a good risk/reward Long trade. On the chart, it can be seen that the price has pulled back to the 23.60% Fibonacci level, which is at 132/133JPY.
This area also doubles as a support zone with the prior resistance level becoming a level of support which is another sign that the trend may continue. On the weekly chart, the characteristics of the candlesticks near the support zone also support the premise that the price may bounce. The candles have long wicks touching the support area indicating that the buyers are soaking up the supply.
They have also closed near their opening price again showing how buyers are soaking up the supply. The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation of the price forming a triangle, with the potential to break out to the upside. This may provide an alternative entry signal for the same overall strategy.
An important aspect to remember when trading this strategy is to ensure that price occurs with relatively high volume. Large volume indicates that buyers are regaining control over the price, and that sellers have become exhausted. Potential risks There are some risks with this trade.
Firstly, the pair is already quite overextended with the price at multi-decade highs. In addition, with US inflation fears potentially easing and interest rate hikes priced in already, the current price may be near its peak.


USDJPY ready to bounce or retrace further. The USDJPY has been recently provided great buying opportunities for traders. However, in recent days it has posted its largest drop since beginning the current upward at the beginning of January 2021.
The question remains, is this just a standard retracement or is it a symbol of a much bigger reversal. In the last few months, the USD has risen sharply as the market has responded to inflation fears and geopolitical events. With inflation levels at record levels across much of the developed world many Central Banks have shifted to a hawkish stance regarding their monetary policy with the USA being a prime example of this.
On the contrary, the Central Bank of Japan has remained dovish almost acting as a lone solider compared to other countries in this regard. Despite this, as bond yields have begun to settle down and the market has begun to price in recession fears and inflation, the YEN has become attractive again. Technical Analysis Looking at the technical elements of the chart, the price is down from the multi decade highs of 139 that it reached in the middle of July.
Importantly the price has also dropped below the most recent support level. In addition, the price has also breached the 50-day moving average. The question that remains is whether this is a simple retracement or the signs of a reversal occurring.
There are two characteristics of this price action that support the potential bounce back to the upside for this currency pair. Firstly, on the daily, chart, although the price did break through the initial first level of support it is currently holding the next stronger level down at 131/132. In addition, looking at the weekly chart, the price is showing a relatively strong bounce off the same 131/132 zone.
This multi timeframe analysis, further supports the continuation of the upward trend of the pair. The midterm buy target may be a retest of the 140 level. There is a large risk with this trade.
If the ‘Top’ is indeed ‘in’ and the pair does start to falter, then there is risk of massive selling. This is because the pair is already so overextended to the buy side. In addition, a rush to close Yen short positions may further accelerate the move back downward.
If this does occur and the 130 level breaks it may see the price fall to the 125 level. The short-term future of the pair will still likely be determined by short term economic news and activity within both Japan and the USA.


US economic data revealed last night shows that the country’s GDP has shrunk by 0.9%, although some are remaining positive that a recession may still be avoided. Despite the worrying figures, Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, outlined his belief that due to low unemployment figures of 3.6% and a strong market for jobs with 11 million job openings that there may be a 'soft landing'. Joe Biden commented, “It’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation.” More US CPI data is expected to be announced tonight.
In response to the GDP figure, the US indices had another green day with the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq, and the S&P500 all rising 1.03%, 1.08%, and 1.21% respectively. In terms of share price movement, Meta’s stock price dipped 5.22% as it posted its first-ever quarterly drop in revenue, signaling how interest rate hikes have been impacting growth companies. The data also followed through to the Australian market with the yield on 3-year government bonds falling to 3.1%.
The ASX200 also continued its momentum for the week as it pushed higher again on Thursday. Brent Crude Oil had a mixed day ending the day flat at $107.58. Gold continued to bounce off its support zone and climbed up 1.25% and Natural Gas fell 4.66% as it continues to pull back from its recent highs dropping 4.66%.
FOREX and Cryptocurrency The USD dropped sharply as the GDP figures were announced. It recovered briefly, before selling back down, closing towards the lowest price of the day, a total drop of 0.28%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also gained momentum as money continued to flow back into risk assets, with the latter jumping to its highest level since the middle of July.
ETHUSD closed at $1726 and Bitcoin at $23,860.


Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its fourth-quarter earnings results after the closing bell over Wall Street today – surpassing analyst expectations. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.326 billion (an increase of 26% year-over-year) vs. $7.242 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.84 a share vs. $0.75 a share expected. ''We had another phenomenal quarter and full-year of financial results,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''As we continue to see tremendous demand from customers, we’re raising our FY23 re venue guidance to $32.1 billion at the high-end of range, with non-GAAP operating margin of 20%, and operating cash flow growth of 22% year-over-year,'' Benioff continued.
Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce, also commented on the strong financial results: ''With our customers’ success driving our financial success, we’re generating disciplined, profitable growth at scale quarter after quarter.'' ''Our Customer 360 platform has never been more strategic or relevant in driving the growth and resilience of our customers around the world.'' Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) Share price of Salesforce was little changed at the end of the trading day on Wall Street Tuesday, down by 0.78% at $208.36 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -10.01% 3 Month: -26.69% Year-to-date: -17.80% 1 Year: -2.15% Salesforce.com Inc. is the 51 st largest company in the world with total market cap of $205.75 billion. You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Salesforce the worlds #1 customer relationship management (CRM) platform has just announced record fourth quarter and full fiscal 2022 results exceeding expectations. The pandemic-led shift to hybrid work has kept up a strong demand for its cloud-based software. Total fourth quarter revenue was $7.33 billion, an increase of 26% year over year, and 27% in constant currency.
Salesforce’s subscription and support revenue for the fourth quarter also rose 24.7% to $6.83 Billion. “We had another phenomenal quarter and full-year of financial results,” said Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce. With our customers’ success driving our financial success, we’re generating disciplined, profitable growth at scale quarter after quarter,” said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. “Our Customer 360 platform has never been more strategic or relevant in driving the growth and resilience of our customers around the world.” Salesforce has also been working to integrate Slack after its $27.7 billion purchase of the instant messaging platform, as well as adding products in a bid to sell more tools to existing customers. Analysts see a lot of room to increase sales of the company’s flagship software that lets businesses manage and interact with customers.
Salesforce believes the software market can grow double digits over the next several years, as companies across the globe continue to have conversations about facilitating hybrid and remote work models. Salesforce has not slowed down Slack’s roadmap, with the platform launching Slack Huddles and Clips in the second half of 2021. Salesforce said it expects $1.5 billion in sales form Slack in its fiscal year 2023.
Salesforce’s stock price has been on a downhill ride in the past several months, falling more than 30% from it’s November record high of over $310. Shares have recently increased over 4% and are currently trading at $209.65. Salesforce (CRM) Salesforce.com Inc. is the 51 st largest company in the world with total market cap of $205.75 billion Gavin Patterson the Chief Revenue Office said the global sanctions against Russia arising out of the war with Ukraine will have “minimal impact” on Salesforce’s business and haven’t forced the company to take any actions.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance, itnews
