OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold remains under near-term pressure after briefly slipping below 4250 before rebounding modestly. Higher oil prices, firm US data and hawkish Fed comments have reinforced rate-hike expectations and supported the US Dollar, while further gains in yields could keep the bearish bias intact; conversely, softer energy prices or a weaker Dollar may help Gold stabilise, with 4300–4354 seen as the key near-term resistance zone.
Rates backdrop keeps Gold heavy
"Gold slipped further to below 4250 briefly before rebounding slightly overnight. Higher oil after renewed Middle East tensions, alongside firm US data and hawkish Fed comments, kept Fed hike expectations elevated (implied probability of Oct hike rose to >70%) while the USD firmed."
"Looking ahead, oil and the rates response remain the main swing factors. Some easing in energy prices or the USD could help gold stabilise, while a further rise in yields would keep the near-term bias under pressure."
"Gold last seen at 4275 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is flat."
"Range-bound trade not ruled out but watch price action, if gold manages to reclaim above key short-term levels. Immediate area of resistance at 4300 – 4354 (21, 50, 100 DMAs)."
"Persistent price pressure below this area may see bearish pressure reexert. Next support at 4200, 4000 levels. Resistance at 4400, 4460 levels."
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