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Além da Nvidia: 5 ações de IA para observar em 2026
GO Markets
19/3/2026
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Então, o problema é o seguinte...

Se você acompanhou a história da tecnologia na última década, foi treinado para analisar um terreno muito específico e muito pequeno no norte da Califórnia. Mas enquanto estamos aqui no início de 2026, o momento de “conectar os pontos” para os investidores é o seguinte: o comércio de IA deixou de ser sobre demonstrações brilhantes de software em Palo Alto e passou a ser sobre a industrialização física da computação.

Quer saber mais? Leia nosso manual de IA para 2026

O que mudou e por que isso é importante

Entramos no “Ano da Prova”. Prevê-se que as maiores empresas do mundo, as hiperescaladoras, gastem incríveis 650 bilhões de dólares em despesas de capital este ano. Mas aqui está a parte que a maioria das pessoas não percebe: esse dinheiro não fica no Vale do Silício. Está chegando aos jogadores de “picaretas e pás” em Idaho, Washington, Colorado e até mesmo no exterior.

Se você quiser entender onde o retorno real do investimento (ROI) pode estar chegando nesta temporada de lucros, é necessário procurar fora do código de área 650. A mudança do hype da IA para a industrialização da IA está mudando o mapa.

The full AI stack: from capex to consulting — GO Markets

Five companies · AI infrastructure play · 2026

The full AI stack: from capex to consulting

Infrastructure builders compared to the implementation bridge across the AI value chain

Note: Hyperscalers shown as 2026 CapEx spend. Accenture shown as cumulative advanced AI bookings ($11.5B through Q1 FY2026), reflecting its role as the adoption layer rather than the infrastructure layer.
Infrastructure (2026 CapEx projected) Implementation bridge (cumulative AI bookings)

Hyperscaler CapEx: Early 2026 analyst estimates, midpoint of ranges. Amazon approx. 100% YoY, Alphabet approx. 100%, Meta approx. 87%, Microsoft approx. 50%.
Accenture: Cumulative advanced AI bookings $11.5B through Q1 FY2026. Q1 AI bookings $2.2B (up 76% YoY), AI revenue $1.1B (up 120% YoY) across 1,300+ clients.

Cinco empresas moldando a próxima fase da IA

Tecnologia Micron (MU), Boise, Idaho

Micron é a “espinha dorsal da memória” do ciclo atual. Enquanto todos observavam os designers de chips, muitos ignoraram o fato de que os chips de IA são muito menos úteis sem a memória de alta largura de banda (HBM). Atualmente, a Micron é vista por alguns analistas como uma compra forte porque sua capacidade está supostamente esgotada até o final de 2026. Os analistas também estão de olho em um salto de 457% no lucro por ação (EPS) à medida que o ciclo de memória atinge o que alguns descrevem como um pico robusto.

Microsoft (MSFT), Redmond, Washington

A Microsoft é a espinha dorsal corporativa dessa transição. Ela foi além dos simples chatbots e agora está construindo o que os analistas chamam de “Fábricas de Inteligência”. Embora as ações tenham enfrentado pressão recentemente sobre as restrições de capacidade, a demanda subjacente pela IA do Azure ainda está supostamente acima da capacidade. O argumento mais amplo é que a Microsoft está migrando para a “IA agente”, sistemas que não apenas conversam com os usuários, mas também podem executar fluxos de trabalho de negócios em várias etapas.

Quais empresas asiáticas estão apostando alto na inteligência artificial?

Amazon (AMZN), Seattle, Washington

A Amazon está jogando um jogo de integração vertical de longo prazo. Para reduzir sua dependência de hardware caro de terceiros, ela está construindo seus próprios chips de IA internamente. A Amazon Web Services (AWS) continua sendo o principal impulsionador da lucratividade, e a empresa está usando seus dados de varejo para treinar modelos especializados que muitas startups do Vale do Silício podem ter dificuldade em replicar.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Denver, Colorado

Se a Micron fornecer a memória e a Microsoft a plataforma, a Palantir fornecerá o “sistema operacional” para a moderna fábrica de IA. A empresa registrou um forte impulso, com as vendas comerciais nos EUA crescendo recentemente 93% ano após ano. Muitas vezes, é enquadrado como uma ponte entre dados brutos e lucratividade corporativa, que continua sendo o foco principal dos investidores em 2026.

Accenture (ACN), Dublin, Irlanda

Você não pode simplesmente “conectar” a IA. As empresas geralmente precisam redesenhar processos em torno disso, e é aí que entra a Accenture.

A empresa é vista como uma ponte de implementação, com um analista argumentando que “a GenAI precisa da Accenture” para passar dos programas piloto para a produção, embora o ângulo cauteloso seja que a história da IA ainda não entusiasmou totalmente os investidores aqui, porque a receita de consultoria pode levar mais tempo para aparecer do que as vendas de chips.

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O que poderia acontecer a seguir?

O gráfico mapeia os três horizontes temporais que provavelmente moldarão a próxima fase do comércio de industrialização da IA.

No curto prazo, os mercados ainda estão reagindo aos lucros, às orientações e a quaisquer sinais de pressão na capacidade dos fabricantes de chips. No próximo mês, a atenção se volta para os insumos reais por trás do crescimento da IA, especialmente energia, financiamento e infraestrutura. Na janela de 60 dias, a questão-chave é se os gastos com IA estão se ampliando para uma reavaliação mais ampla do mercado ou se estão à frente dos retornos de curto prazo.

Em todos os três períodos, o foco é o mesmo: a prova. Os investidores estão procurando sinais de que os gastos de capital com IA estão se traduzindo em demanda real por energia, terra e capacidade industrial. É por isso que as atualizações de empresas ligadas à energia e à construção de data centers são mais importantes do que nunca.

What could happen next — GO Markets

Scenario planning · March 2026

What could happen next

Three time horizons, three scenarios to watch across the AI industrialisation cycle

Next 2 weeks

Chipmaker reports

Possible

Market volatility continues as traders digest the latest reports from chipmakers like Micron

Upside scenario

"Bulletproof" guidance from remaining infrastructure names triggers a sector-wide relief rally

Watch for

Any mention of "capacity constraints" or "supply bottlenecks" in earnings calls

Next 30 days

Energy and rates

Possible

Focus shifts to "real economy" energy players like NextEra that power the data centres

Downside scenario

Rising oil prices from Middle East conflict act as a tax on tech margins, rotating into defensives

Action point

Monitor Fed language on rates. Higher for longer makes $650B capex bills far more expensive to finance

Next 60 days

The great dispersion

Possible

Market rewards companies with real AI revenue and punishes those still stuck in experimentation

Upside scenario

NextEra Energy (NEE) data centre announcements in late April/May trigger a utility renaissance rally

Downside scenario

An "air pocket" in profits occurs where debt-funded investment outpaces revenue gains

Watch

May reports from Texas Pacific Land (TPL) — is data centre land demand still "red hot"?

Action point

Review your portfolio for geographic diversity. The AI story is now a global power race

A armadilha psicológica‍

A armadilha emocional em que muitos traders caem agora é o viés recente. Você viu a NVIDIA e o “Magnificent 7" vencerem por tanto tempo que parece que eles são a única maneira de jogar isso. Mas a negociação “óbvia” geralmente é aquela que já foi cotada. Antes de agir, pergunte a si mesmo: “Estou comprando essa ação porque entendo seu papel na cadeia de suprimentos física de IA ou porque tenho medo de perder a próxima etapa de uma alta que começou há dois anos?”

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Pronto para negociar além das principais empresas?
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Isenção de responsabilidade: Este conteúdo é apenas informação geral e não deve ser usado como aconselhamento financeiro pessoal ou recomendação para comprar, vender ou manter qualquer produto financeiro. As referências a empresas ou temas, incluindo ações relacionadas à IA, são meramente ilustrativas. Os mercados de ações e derivativos podem se mover bruscamente, e setores concentrados, como IA e tecnologia, podem apresentar volatilidade elevada, risco de avaliação e risco de liquidez. Se você negociar derivativos, como CFDs, a alavancagem pode aumentar os ganhos e as perdas. O desempenho passado não é um indicador confiável do desempenho futuro.

‍

By
GO Markets

The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs.

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US Earnings
AI
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Defesa, disrupção e grandes finanças: 3 nomes que valem a pena assistir nesta temporada de resultados

Então é o seguinte: a temporada de resultados de abril nos EUA está chegando a um mercado que ainda parece tudo menos normal. Como a GO Markets explica em O manual global de ganhos dos EUA: o guia essencial para comerciantes, esse período de relatório está chegando após uma mudança real no que interessa aos mercados. Não se trata mais apenas de buscar o crescimento a qualquer custo. É sobre o que os números estão dizendo abaixo da superfície.

E em 2026, esses sinais estão colidindo com um cenário de alto atrito:

  1. Conflito geopolítico: Tensão contínua no Oriente Médio
  2. Choque no fornecimento de óleo: Brent bruto acima de USD 100
  3. O Fed: Um banco central ainda preso à inflação persistente

O pivô de durabilidade

Sim, a IA ainda é a história principal do mercado, mas ainda é o mecanismo chamativo que está recebendo a maior parte da atenção. Mas, por baixo disso, há um movimento mais silencioso em direção a empresas que parecem criadas para se manter melhor quando as condições ficam mais difíceis.

Quando as taxas são incertas e os mercados de energia estão sob pressão, nomes como JPMorgan Chase e os principais empreiteiros de defesa começam a ter mais peso. Eles não estão substituindo a narrativa da IA, mas sim se tornando parte da forma como os traders leem o apetite pelo risco, a durabilidade dos lucros e, em última análise, onde o mercado está procurando algo mais sólido em que se agarrar.

! Important: Reporting schedules can change without notice. Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are from third-party market consensus sources, as of 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are from the latest company filings or results presentations unless stated otherwise. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
$JPM | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

NYSE | Financial Services | 14 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$5.42
Consensus Revenue
US$47.88bn
AU/ASIA 14 Apr | 8:45 pm
US/LATAM 14 Apr | 6:45 am
Market Intelligence: $JPM

Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
NII guidance
~US$103 billion
Full year | US$95 billionn ex:markets
ROTCE target
17%
Possible return on tangible common equity
Analyst range
US$5.02-5.70
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$5.02 AVG US$5.39 HIGH US$5.70

The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result above consensus but below the high end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A result above US$5.70 may shift the discussion.

Key swing factors for the result

Net interest income (NII)
The clearest macro lever. It reflects the gap between lending rates and deposit costs.
Guidance: US$103 billion for the full year
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)
A scale check. It indicates whether JPM is converting scale into efficiency. 17% is the benchmark.
Target: 17% ROTCE
Trading and investment banking
Strong Q1 growth was expected in fees and markets revenue. These lines can offset softness in lending, and stronger-than-expected performance here may shift the narrative away from rate sensitivity.
Watch: investment banking (IB) fees versus the prior quarter
Expense discipline
A bank can beat the EPS estimate and still sell off if expense growth is running too hot. Pairing the EPS result with the expense trajectory gives a fuller read on whether the beat is durable.
Watch: Expense outlook commentary
Trade Execution: $JPM

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$5.70, NII on track | ROTCE at or above 17%
The result comes in above the top of the analyst range. NII guidance holds or is revised higher. IB fees and markets revenue show strong Q1 growth. Expense commentary is constructive.
Possible reaction: momentum and repositioning
Base case
EPS between US$5.39 and US$5.70, NII in line | ROTCE near target
The result beats consensus but stays within the expected range. NII tracks guidance. The tone of the conference call may matter more than the headline number. The first move may fade if guidance is unchanged.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$5.39 | NII misses | Expense growth surprises
The result comes in at or below the consensus midpoint. NII guidance is cut or qualified. Expense growth comes in above market expectations. IB or markets revenue disappoints.
Possible reaction: earnings multiple repricing

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase

Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum

AI-linked offset, beat supported by NII and ROTCE

Stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related industrial lending may offset softer mortgage activity. Management maintains guidance as NII remains resilient in higher-for-longer conditions. IB fees and markets revenue may provide additional support. ROTCE at or above 17% would suggest the bank is converting scale into earnings efficiently.
EPS Outcome
Above US$5.70
NII Signal
On track
ROTCE
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Momentum may build

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

From credit to defence

If JPMorgan gives the market an early read on the consumer, credit quality and business activity, the defence names may be telling a different story. This is the point where the focus may start to shift from the credit cycle to government-backed demand.

In a market still shaped by geopolitical risk, that matters. Long-dated programs can help support revenue visibility, even when the broader outlook looks less certain. That is one reason the sector remains on the watchlist.

$LMT | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Lockheed Martin Corp.

NYSE | Aerospace | Defense | 22 Apr 2026
Estimated

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.50
Consensus Revenue
US$16.32bn
AU | ASIA 22 Apr | 9:20 pm
US | LATAM 22 Apr | 7:20 am
Market Intelligence: $LMT

Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Order backlog
US$194 billionn
Record visibility
Book-to-bill
1.2x
Orders outpacing sales
Analyst range
US$6.90-7.10
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.94 HIGH US$7.10+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That positioning may leave room for upside if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines support execution. A print near the high end, above US$7.10, may extend the move, although the reaction would still depend on guidance and margins.

Key swing factors for the result

Backlog visibility
Primary evidence of demand. Book-to-bill above 1.2x would support full-year guidance and the production ramp.
Backlog: US$194 billion record
Free cash flow (FCF)
Defence stocks are often assessed on cash conversion. The market may look for confirmation of the US$6.5 billion floor.
Guide: US$6.5 billion - $6.8 billion
Missile segment growth
PrSM and THAAD deliveries remain key watchpoints. Strong space margins may help offset softness in aeronautics.
Watch: Fire Control margins
Margin pressure
Pension charges and production inflation remain risks. An earnings beat may fade if operating margins contract.
Watch: segment operating margin
Trade Execution: $LMT

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.70, backlog visibility confirmed | FCF guide holds
The result clears the upper half of the analyst range. Management reaffirms or raises the full-year FCF outlook. Strong Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) margins help offset any aeronautics supply chain lag.
Possible reaction: momentum may build and positioning may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.30 and US$6.70 | Backlog steady at about US$194 billion
The result aligns with the US$6.38 consensus. F-35 delivery pace remains on track but offers no meaningful upside surprise. The market may wait for more specific segment guidance on the conference call.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$6.30 | FCF guide qualified, margin contraction
The result falls towards the bottom of the analyst spread. Management cites further software delays or program losses. The FCF trajectory narrows towards the lower end of previous expectations.
Possible reaction: the share price may come under pressure

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin

Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Select earnings outcome
Backlog confirmed

Backlog and FCF confirmation may support continuation

EPS clears the top of the analyst range. Backlog holds at or above US$194 billion and book-to-bill stays above 1.2, which would suggest orders are replenishing faster than revenue is being recognised. FCF guidance holds within the stated range.
EPS outcome
Above US$7.00
Backlog signal
Above US$194 billion
FCF guide
Holds or improves
Likely reaction
Continuation may follow

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Not all defence names are the same

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may sit in the same defence bucket, but the market does not always read them the same way. Lockheed is more closely tied to the F-35 and current air combat demand. Northrop is more closely linked to next-generation programs such as the B-21 Raider and Sentinel.

That gives this section its contrast. One is often read through the lens of current defence demand. The other is more closely tied to longer-cycle strategic modernisation.

$NOC | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Northrop Grumman Corp.

NYSE | Defense | Space Systems | 23 Apr 2026
Estimated

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.12
Consensus Revenue
US$10.24 bn
AU | ASIA 23 Apr | 10:30 pm
US | LATAM 23 Apr | 8:30 am
Market Intelligence: $NOC

Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Consensus EPS
US$6.96
Quarterly analyst average
Order Backlog
US$95.7 billion
Record revenue visibility
FY 2026 EPS guide
US$27.40-US$27.90
Full-year 2026 outlook
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.96 HIGH US$7.20+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That offers a quick visual for whether the result is merely in line or strong enough to ease the guidance concerns that weighed on the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 may shift the conversation more materially.

Key swing factors for the result

Book-to-bill ratio
Currently at 1.10, suggesting orders are still running ahead of revenue recognition. This remains an important signal for multi-year growth visibility in defence.
Watch: 1.10 target
Guidance reset risk
Management’s guidance previously came in below market expectations. The market may be sensitive to any further softening in the 2026 outlook.
Watch: guidance commentary
Program concentration
The B-21 Raider and Sentinel carry outsized execution sensitivity. Updates on production ramp and funding may be the clearest drivers of sentiment for the stock.
Watch: B-21 and Sentinel updates
Capacity investment
Higher capital expenditure (capex) supports the industrial base over the longer term, but it may pressure near-term margins. Watch for signs that current investment is weighing on earnings power.
Watch: operating margins
Trade Execution: $NOC

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.30, backlog expansion above US$96 billion | Free cash flow (FCF) guidance raised
The result comes in above the cited threshold. Management says B-21 Raider production is ahead of schedule, with improving margins. Sentinel program restructuring costs remain below baseline expectations. International awards lift the book-to-bill ratio above 1.15.
Possible reaction: momentum may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.00 and US$6.20, backlog steady at about US$95.7 billion
The result is broadly in line with the cited range. FCF targets for 2026 are reaffirmed but not expanded. Market focus shifts to organic sales growth metrics and segment operating margins. The initial reaction may depend on the timing of B-21 milestone payments.
Possible reaction: little reaction
Bear case
EPS below US$5.95 | margin pressure, guidance narrowed
The result lands near the low end of the analyst spread. Management flags higher infrastructure costs for Sentinel or delays in restricted space segment awards. Margin pressure in Aeronautics persists, and the 2026 revenue guide narrows towards the US$43.5 billion floor.
Possible reaction: shares may weaken

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman

Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Select earnings outcome
Stealth momentum

B-21 momentum, stronger execution and FCF support

EPS clears US$6.15. Management confirms a production capacity agreement for the B-21 Raider. Sentinel restructuring reaches Milestone B on schedule. Record backlog visibility and higher FCF guidance towards US$3.5 billion may support broader repositioning.
EPS outcome
Above US$6.15
B-21 Signal
Acceleration
FCF guide
$3.5 billionn range
Likely reaction
Momentum rally

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Bottom line

In a market shaped by geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations, companies with visible demand and longer-cycle revenue may continue to attract attention. But sentiment can still turn quickly if valuations are stretched, rate expectations shift again, or tensions in the Middle East ease.

That is why the story still needs to be tested against the numbers, not just the narrative. GO Markets will be analysing more companies throughout this earnings season. For more updates, visit our earnings page, follow our social media channels, or check the weekly newsletters.

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

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GO Markets
•
April 7, 2026
US Earnings
Shares
AI
The global US earnings playbook: The essential guide for traders

If you have been watching markets over the past year, you will have noticed that the "growth at any cost" era has effectively hit a wall. The April 2026 earnings cycle arrives at a moment when the market's focus has undergone a structural reorientation. It is not just about profit and loss statements anymore. It is about the signals sitting behind them.

With interest rate uncertainty lingering and geopolitical shocks pushing oil above US$100, the playbook has shifted from AI hype toward institutional resilience and the industrialisation of compute. For traders in Australia, Asia and Latin America, these results may act as a mood ring for global risk appetite and the emerging security supercycle.

Important - Dates, Times and Figures

All earnings dates marked as confirmed or estimated should be verified against current company investor relations calendars before you act on them. Reporting schedules can change without notice due to corporate decisions, regulatory requirements or exchange timetable adjustments.

The mechanics: How the timing works across time zones

The US earnings season does not arrive as a smooth drip. It arrives in waves. For non-US traders, the primary challenge is the overnight gap: major results land while you are away from your desk and can move index CFDs before your local market opens. Before market open (BMO) and after market close (AMC) matter just as much as the numbers themselves. The timing changes how quickly markets react, when liquidity is available and whether the first move has already happened before your session begins.

Why BMO and AMC matter

A BMO result hits before the US cash market opens, so price discovery happens in pre-market trading where liquidity is thinner and moves can be exaggerated. An AMC result hits after close, meaning the reaction is compressed into a short pre-market window the following morning. Understanding which window your company reports in is as important as understanding what it reports.

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The key themes for Q1

For this cycle, the market is no longer rewarding AI mentions alone. It is looking for return on investment (ROI) proof. The four thematic snapshots below help explain where attention is likely to sit as results come through. Each theme has its own section with company cards that can be updated each quarter.

T1
Theme 1 — Institutional anchors

Defence against volatility

These companies are often watched as relative defensives during energy shocks and inflation spikes, although they remain exposed to normal share-price risk. When macro uncertainty rises, money has historically rotated toward businesses with contracted revenue, government-linked demand or pricing power that is not dependent on the consumer cycle — but past rotation patterns do not guarantee future performance.

JPM
JPMorgan Chase
Tuesday, 14 April Confirmed
Watch For

Net interest margin (NIM) under higher for longer rates, and whether AI spending remains cost neutral.

LMT
Lockheed Martin
Wednesday, 22 April Estimated
Watch For

F-35 delivery schedules and the company's ability to absorb tariff related costs on supply chain inputs.

NOC
Northrop Grumman
Monday, 27 April Confirmed
Watch For

B-21 Raider production progress and the conversion of its reported US$95.7 billion backlog into recognised revenue.

T2
Theme 2 — Tangible capital

EVs and energy

As parts of tech slow, investors have been rotating toward tangible, capital-intensive businesses. The energy transition and the infrastructure required to support AI data centre power demand have put utilities and energy companies in an unusual position: they are now growth stocks with defensive characteristics — though all remain subject to ordinary equity and sector risk.

TSLA
Tesla
Thursday, 23 April Confirmed
Watch For

The strategic shift from EV margins toward robotaxi and energy storage as the new growth narrative.

NEE
NextEra Energy
Friday, 24 April Estimated
Watch For

Data centre power demand and progress on its reported 30 GW contracted backlog as utilities face new infrastructure pressure.

XOM
Exxon Mobil
Wednesday, 29 April Estimated
Watch For

Permian and Guyana volume growth, and cash flow resilience during the Hormuz supply disruption.

T3
Theme 3 — The hardware invoice phase

AI infrastructure

This is the engine room of the S&P 500 and the part of the market most tied to whether AI capital expenditure is generating measurable returns. The question the market is now asking is not whether these companies are spending on AI. It is whether the spending is translating into capacity utilisation and revenue that justifies the multiple.

MSFT / GOOGL
Microsoft and Alphabet
Monday, 27 April Estimated
Watch For

Azure and Cloud capacity constraints against heavy AI capital expenditure. The gap between spending and utilisation is the market's primary concern.

NVDA
NVIDIA
Wednesday, 27 May Estimated
Watch For

Blackwell GPU demand and gross margin sustainability as the product cycle matures and competition intensifies.

T4
Theme 4 — K-shaped recovery

Consumer platforms and devices

This theme tests the K-shaped consumer recovery: higher-income cohorts remain more resilient while lower-income cohorts face continued pressure from elevated borrowing costs and energy prices. Ad revenue and device upgrade cycles are the clearest indicators of where on the K-curve the consumer sits.

META / AMZN
Meta and Amazon
28 to 29 April Estimated
Watch For

AI-driven ad click improvements against Reality Labs spending and retail logistics costs as the profitability test for non-core investment.

AAPL
Apple
Thursday, 30 April Estimated
Watch For

iPhone upgrade cycle momentum and the Apple Intelligence rollout in China as the first real-world test of AI-driven hardware demand.

Analysis checklist: how to read each result

Use this structure for every company on your watchlist. A headline beat is common. The bigger market move often comes from how the market translates the details sitting behind the number.

1
Projected consensus

This is the bar for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Small beats may already be priced in. The market often sets a whisper number above the published consensus, so a technically positive result can still disappoint.

2
The call focus

Identify the single variable analysts are most focused on this cycle: capital expenditure versus margins, inventory turnover, customer growth rate, or contract backlog conversion.

3
The translation

A beat, meet or miss each carries a different market dynamic.

Beat Matters most when forward guidance is credible. Without it, the initial move may reverse.
Meet Often shifts focus to the tone of the call, particularly language around capacity or outlook.
Miss Can be treated as the start of a trend and trigger a sharp repricing of valuation multiples.

The recency bias problem

The emotional trap many traders fall into is recency bias. Because the Magnificent 7 have led markets for so long, it can feel as though they are still the only trade that matters. That assumption deserves to be tested.

It's worth asking: Is the obvious trade already priced for perfection?

2026 is shaping up as a year of proof. Companies that spent heavily on AI over the past two years are now being asked to show the return. The market is no longer rewarding the announcement of AI investment. It is rewarding the evidence of AI-driven revenue outcomes.

A better framing question for each result is this: are you reacting to a headline, or are you assessing the company's role in the physical AI supply chain or as a potential volatility hedge? Those are very different analytical tasks, and they tend to produce very different positioning decisions.

What to watch next

Three time horizons, three distinct signals. Update these each cycle with the most relevant near-term catalyst, the sector rotation to watch, and the longer-horizon dispersion theme.

Next Two Weeks
Consumer health barometer

Watch the 31 March Nike report as a lead indicator for consumer discretionary health. Footwear and apparel demand signals tend to front-run broader retail sentiment.

Next 30 Days
Bank lending and industrial demand

Focus shifts to the major banks. If loan demand tied to industrial and infrastructure projects remains firm, the earnings cycle may have support beyond the tech sector.

Next 60 Days
Wider dispersion between winners and losers

Watch for dispersion to widen. The companies converting heavy capital expenditure into measurable revenue outcomes may separate clearly from those that cannot.

Client & Education Portal

Follow the US Reporting Season

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
March 31, 2026
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
AI
Observação do Fed em abril de 2026: Explicação do petróleo, da inflação e do FOMC

Aqui está a situação no início de abril. Uma guerra está afetando um dos pontos de estrangulamento petrolíferos mais importantes do mundo. O petróleo Brent está sendo negociado acima de USD 100. E o Federal Reserve (Fed), que passou grande parte de 2025 planejando uma aterrissagem suave, agora enfrenta uma ameaça de inflação impulsionada menos por salários, serviços ou economia doméstica e mais pela energia. Está assistindo a um choque de óleo.

A taxa de fundos do Fed está em 3,50% a 3,75%. A próxima reunião do Comitê Federal de Mercado Aberto (FOMC) será em 28 e 29 de abril e a questão-chave para os mercados não é se o Fed cortará, é se o Fed pode cortar ou se o choque energético pode ter fechado essa porta durante grande parte de 2026.

Uma grande quantidade de grandes lançamentos de dados chega em abril. O índice de preços ao consumidor (IPC) de março, as folhas de pagamento não agrícolas (NFP) e a estimativa antecipada do produto interno bruto (PIB) do primeiro trimestre são os três que mais importam. Mas a declaração do FOMC em 29 de abril pode ser o lançamento que define o tom para o resto do ano.

Fed Funds Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Next FOMC

28–29 April 2026

Brent crude

Above US$100

Key data events

12 major releases

Crescimento: atividade e demanda de negócios

Pense em como seria a economia dos EUA neste ano: as despesas de capital (capex) impulsionadas pela IA foram uma parte importante da narrativa de crescimento, as intenções de investimento corporativo pareciam firmes e a Lei One, Big, Beautiful Bill já estava na mistura. No papel, a história de crescimento parecia sólida.

Então, a situação do Estreito de Ormuz mudou o cálculo. Não porque os EUA sejam importadores líquidos de energia, não são e porque o isolamento estrutural é importante. Mas o que é bom para os produtores de energia dos EUA ainda pode reduzir as margens em outros lugares e pesar na demanda global. A estimativa antecipada do produto interno bruto (PIB) do primeiro trimestre de 30 de abril agora deve ser lida através de duas lentes: quão forte era a economia antes do choque e o que ela pode sinalizar sobre os próximos trimestres.

Key dates (AEST)

2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
  • Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
  • Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Equities
Stronger than expected growth ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer Risk off if stagflation narrative builds

Trabalho: Folhas de pagamento e emprego

O relatório de empregos de fevereiro foi, dependendo de como você o leu, um sinal de alerta ou um sinal de alerta. As folhas de pagamento não agrícolas (NFP) caíram em 92.000, o desemprego subiu para 4,4% e a linha oficial era de que o clima desempenhou um papel. Isso pode ser verdade, mas aqui está o que também aconteceu. De repente, o mercado de trabalho pareceu um pouco menos convincente como principal argumento para manter as taxas elevadas.

O relatório de emprego de 3 de abril de março é agora genuinamente importante. Uma recuperação do crescimento positivo da folha de pagamento provavelmente acalmaria os nervos e uma segunda impressão digital consecutiva, particularmente em um cenário de preços mais altos de energia, começaria a construir uma narrativa muito desconfortável para o Fed. Estaria considerando um crescimento mais lento do emprego e uma ameaça de inflação ao mesmo tempo. Esse não é um lugar confortável para se estar.

Key dates (AEST)

3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
  • Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
  • Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
  • Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising

Inflação: CPI, PPI e PCE

Aqui está a verdade incômoda sobre a situação da inflação no momento. As principais despesas de consumo pessoal (PCE), o indicador preferido do Fed, já estavam em 3,1% ano a ano em janeiro, antes que qualquer choque do petróleo tivesse ocorrido. O Fed não resolveu totalmente seu problema de inflação, mas o desacelerou. Isso é uma coisa diferente.

E agora, além de um problema de inflação ainda não resolvido, os preços do petróleo subiram drasticamente. Os preços da energia podem contribuir para o índice de preços ao consumidor (IPC) de forma relativamente rápida, por meio de custos de gasolina, transporte e logística que podem eventualmente aparecer no preço de quase tudo. A impressão do IPC de 10 de abril de março é provavelmente a divulgação de dados única mais importante do mês; é a que pode nos dizer se o choque energético já está aparecendo nos números observados pelo Fed.

Key dates (AEST)

10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
  • PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
  • PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
  • Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Gold
Cooling core inflation ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer ↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer ↓ Headwind

Política, comércio e ganhos

Abril também é o início da temporada de lucros nos EUA, e os resultados deste trimestre têm um peso incomum. Os investidores estão investindo capital na infraestrutura de IA com base no fato de que os retornos estão chegando. A questão é quando. Com a volatilidade geopolítica afastando a tecnologia voltada para o crescimento em direção à energia e defesa, os lucros de 14 de abril do JPMorgan Chase serão interpretados tanto pelo que a administração diz sobre o macroambiente quanto pelos números em si.

Depois, há a reunião do FOMC em 28 e 29 de abril. Após a coleta de dados do início de abril, incluindo NFP, CPI e índice de preços ao produtor (PPI), o Fed terá informações mais do que suficientes para atualizar seu idioma. Se isso sinaliza que os cortes nas taxas podem permanecer suspensos até 2026, ou se deixa a porta ligeiramente entreaberta, pode ser a comunicação mais importante do trimestre.

A volatilidade geopolítica já levou os investidores a reavaliar o posicionamento de alto crescimento. A construção da infraestrutura de IA estimada em 650 bilhões de dólares também está sob maior escrutínio sobre o retorno do investimento. Se a temporada de resultados decepcionar nessa frente, e se o FOMC sinalizar uma suspensão prolongada, a combinação poderá testar o apetite pelo risco até maio.

Monitor this month (AEST)

  • ◆
    14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

    The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.

  • ◆
    15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings

    A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.

  • ◆
    28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement

    The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic

    A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions

    Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.

The Bigger Picture

Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.

‍

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GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
See all News & Insights

Recent Articles

US Earnings
AI
Announcments
Shares
Defesa, disrupção e grandes finanças: 3 nomes que valem a pena assistir nesta temporada de resultados

Então é o seguinte: a temporada de resultados de abril nos EUA está chegando a um mercado que ainda parece tudo menos normal. Como a GO Markets explica em O manual global de ganhos dos EUA: o guia essencial para comerciantes, esse período de relatório está chegando após uma mudança real no que interessa aos mercados. Não se trata mais apenas de buscar o crescimento a qualquer custo. É sobre o que os números estão dizendo abaixo da superfície.

E em 2026, esses sinais estão colidindo com um cenário de alto atrito:

  1. Conflito geopolítico: Tensão contínua no Oriente Médio
  2. Choque no fornecimento de óleo: Brent bruto acima de USD 100
  3. O Fed: Um banco central ainda preso à inflação persistente

O pivô de durabilidade

Sim, a IA ainda é a história principal do mercado, mas ainda é o mecanismo chamativo que está recebendo a maior parte da atenção. Mas, por baixo disso, há um movimento mais silencioso em direção a empresas que parecem criadas para se manter melhor quando as condições ficam mais difíceis.

Quando as taxas são incertas e os mercados de energia estão sob pressão, nomes como JPMorgan Chase e os principais empreiteiros de defesa começam a ter mais peso. Eles não estão substituindo a narrativa da IA, mas sim se tornando parte da forma como os traders leem o apetite pelo risco, a durabilidade dos lucros e, em última análise, onde o mercado está procurando algo mais sólido em que se agarrar.

! Important: Reporting schedules can change without notice. Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are from third-party market consensus sources, as of 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are from the latest company filings or results presentations unless stated otherwise. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
$JPM | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

NYSE | Financial Services | 14 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$5.42
Consensus Revenue
US$47.88bn
AU/ASIA 14 Apr | 8:45 pm
US/LATAM 14 Apr | 6:45 am
Market Intelligence: $JPM

Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
NII guidance
~US$103 billion
Full year | US$95 billionn ex:markets
ROTCE target
17%
Possible return on tangible common equity
Analyst range
US$5.02-5.70
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$5.02 AVG US$5.39 HIGH US$5.70

The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result above consensus but below the high end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A result above US$5.70 may shift the discussion.

Key swing factors for the result

Net interest income (NII)
The clearest macro lever. It reflects the gap between lending rates and deposit costs.
Guidance: US$103 billion for the full year
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)
A scale check. It indicates whether JPM is converting scale into efficiency. 17% is the benchmark.
Target: 17% ROTCE
Trading and investment banking
Strong Q1 growth was expected in fees and markets revenue. These lines can offset softness in lending, and stronger-than-expected performance here may shift the narrative away from rate sensitivity.
Watch: investment banking (IB) fees versus the prior quarter
Expense discipline
A bank can beat the EPS estimate and still sell off if expense growth is running too hot. Pairing the EPS result with the expense trajectory gives a fuller read on whether the beat is durable.
Watch: Expense outlook commentary
Trade Execution: $JPM

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$5.70, NII on track | ROTCE at or above 17%
The result comes in above the top of the analyst range. NII guidance holds or is revised higher. IB fees and markets revenue show strong Q1 growth. Expense commentary is constructive.
Possible reaction: momentum and repositioning
Base case
EPS between US$5.39 and US$5.70, NII in line | ROTCE near target
The result beats consensus but stays within the expected range. NII tracks guidance. The tone of the conference call may matter more than the headline number. The first move may fade if guidance is unchanged.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$5.39 | NII misses | Expense growth surprises
The result comes in at or below the consensus midpoint. NII guidance is cut or qualified. Expense growth comes in above market expectations. IB or markets revenue disappoints.
Possible reaction: earnings multiple repricing

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase

Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum

AI-linked offset, beat supported by NII and ROTCE

Stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related industrial lending may offset softer mortgage activity. Management maintains guidance as NII remains resilient in higher-for-longer conditions. IB fees and markets revenue may provide additional support. ROTCE at or above 17% would suggest the bank is converting scale into earnings efficiently.
EPS Outcome
Above US$5.70
NII Signal
On track
ROTCE
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Momentum may build

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

From credit to defence

If JPMorgan gives the market an early read on the consumer, credit quality and business activity, the defence names may be telling a different story. This is the point where the focus may start to shift from the credit cycle to government-backed demand.

In a market still shaped by geopolitical risk, that matters. Long-dated programs can help support revenue visibility, even when the broader outlook looks less certain. That is one reason the sector remains on the watchlist.

$LMT | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Lockheed Martin Corp.

NYSE | Aerospace | Defense | 22 Apr 2026
Estimated

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.50
Consensus Revenue
US$16.32bn
AU | ASIA 22 Apr | 9:20 pm
US | LATAM 22 Apr | 7:20 am
Market Intelligence: $LMT

Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Order backlog
US$194 billionn
Record visibility
Book-to-bill
1.2x
Orders outpacing sales
Analyst range
US$6.90-7.10
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.94 HIGH US$7.10+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That positioning may leave room for upside if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines support execution. A print near the high end, above US$7.10, may extend the move, although the reaction would still depend on guidance and margins.

Key swing factors for the result

Backlog visibility
Primary evidence of demand. Book-to-bill above 1.2x would support full-year guidance and the production ramp.
Backlog: US$194 billion record
Free cash flow (FCF)
Defence stocks are often assessed on cash conversion. The market may look for confirmation of the US$6.5 billion floor.
Guide: US$6.5 billion - $6.8 billion
Missile segment growth
PrSM and THAAD deliveries remain key watchpoints. Strong space margins may help offset softness in aeronautics.
Watch: Fire Control margins
Margin pressure
Pension charges and production inflation remain risks. An earnings beat may fade if operating margins contract.
Watch: segment operating margin
Trade Execution: $LMT

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.70, backlog visibility confirmed | FCF guide holds
The result clears the upper half of the analyst range. Management reaffirms or raises the full-year FCF outlook. Strong Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) margins help offset any aeronautics supply chain lag.
Possible reaction: momentum may build and positioning may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.30 and US$6.70 | Backlog steady at about US$194 billion
The result aligns with the US$6.38 consensus. F-35 delivery pace remains on track but offers no meaningful upside surprise. The market may wait for more specific segment guidance on the conference call.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$6.30 | FCF guide qualified, margin contraction
The result falls towards the bottom of the analyst spread. Management cites further software delays or program losses. The FCF trajectory narrows towards the lower end of previous expectations.
Possible reaction: the share price may come under pressure

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin

Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Select earnings outcome
Backlog confirmed

Backlog and FCF confirmation may support continuation

EPS clears the top of the analyst range. Backlog holds at or above US$194 billion and book-to-bill stays above 1.2, which would suggest orders are replenishing faster than revenue is being recognised. FCF guidance holds within the stated range.
EPS outcome
Above US$7.00
Backlog signal
Above US$194 billion
FCF guide
Holds or improves
Likely reaction
Continuation may follow

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Not all defence names are the same

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may sit in the same defence bucket, but the market does not always read them the same way. Lockheed is more closely tied to the F-35 and current air combat demand. Northrop is more closely linked to next-generation programs such as the B-21 Raider and Sentinel.

That gives this section its contrast. One is often read through the lens of current defence demand. The other is more closely tied to longer-cycle strategic modernisation.

$NOC | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Northrop Grumman Corp.

NYSE | Defense | Space Systems | 23 Apr 2026
Estimated

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.12
Consensus Revenue
US$10.24 bn
AU | ASIA 23 Apr | 10:30 pm
US | LATAM 23 Apr | 8:30 am
Market Intelligence: $NOC

Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Consensus EPS
US$6.96
Quarterly analyst average
Order Backlog
US$95.7 billion
Record revenue visibility
FY 2026 EPS guide
US$27.40-US$27.90
Full-year 2026 outlook
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.96 HIGH US$7.20+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That offers a quick visual for whether the result is merely in line or strong enough to ease the guidance concerns that weighed on the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 may shift the conversation more materially.

Key swing factors for the result

Book-to-bill ratio
Currently at 1.10, suggesting orders are still running ahead of revenue recognition. This remains an important signal for multi-year growth visibility in defence.
Watch: 1.10 target
Guidance reset risk
Management’s guidance previously came in below market expectations. The market may be sensitive to any further softening in the 2026 outlook.
Watch: guidance commentary
Program concentration
The B-21 Raider and Sentinel carry outsized execution sensitivity. Updates on production ramp and funding may be the clearest drivers of sentiment for the stock.
Watch: B-21 and Sentinel updates
Capacity investment
Higher capital expenditure (capex) supports the industrial base over the longer term, but it may pressure near-term margins. Watch for signs that current investment is weighing on earnings power.
Watch: operating margins
Trade Execution: $NOC

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.30, backlog expansion above US$96 billion | Free cash flow (FCF) guidance raised
The result comes in above the cited threshold. Management says B-21 Raider production is ahead of schedule, with improving margins. Sentinel program restructuring costs remain below baseline expectations. International awards lift the book-to-bill ratio above 1.15.
Possible reaction: momentum may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.00 and US$6.20, backlog steady at about US$95.7 billion
The result is broadly in line with the cited range. FCF targets for 2026 are reaffirmed but not expanded. Market focus shifts to organic sales growth metrics and segment operating margins. The initial reaction may depend on the timing of B-21 milestone payments.
Possible reaction: little reaction
Bear case
EPS below US$5.95 | margin pressure, guidance narrowed
The result lands near the low end of the analyst spread. Management flags higher infrastructure costs for Sentinel or delays in restricted space segment awards. Margin pressure in Aeronautics persists, and the 2026 revenue guide narrows towards the US$43.5 billion floor.
Possible reaction: shares may weaken

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman

Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Select earnings outcome
Stealth momentum

B-21 momentum, stronger execution and FCF support

EPS clears US$6.15. Management confirms a production capacity agreement for the B-21 Raider. Sentinel restructuring reaches Milestone B on schedule. Record backlog visibility and higher FCF guidance towards US$3.5 billion may support broader repositioning.
EPS outcome
Above US$6.15
B-21 Signal
Acceleration
FCF guide
$3.5 billionn range
Likely reaction
Momentum rally

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Bottom line

In a market shaped by geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations, companies with visible demand and longer-cycle revenue may continue to attract attention. But sentiment can still turn quickly if valuations are stretched, rate expectations shift again, or tensions in the Middle East ease.

That is why the story still needs to be tested against the numbers, not just the narrative. GO Markets will be analysing more companies throughout this earnings season. For more updates, visit our earnings page, follow our social media channels, or check the weekly newsletters.

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
April 7, 2026
US Earnings
Shares
AI
The global US earnings playbook: The essential guide for traders

If you have been watching markets over the past year, you will have noticed that the "growth at any cost" era has effectively hit a wall. The April 2026 earnings cycle arrives at a moment when the market's focus has undergone a structural reorientation. It is not just about profit and loss statements anymore. It is about the signals sitting behind them.

With interest rate uncertainty lingering and geopolitical shocks pushing oil above US$100, the playbook has shifted from AI hype toward institutional resilience and the industrialisation of compute. For traders in Australia, Asia and Latin America, these results may act as a mood ring for global risk appetite and the emerging security supercycle.

Important - Dates, Times and Figures

All earnings dates marked as confirmed or estimated should be verified against current company investor relations calendars before you act on them. Reporting schedules can change without notice due to corporate decisions, regulatory requirements or exchange timetable adjustments.

The mechanics: How the timing works across time zones

The US earnings season does not arrive as a smooth drip. It arrives in waves. For non-US traders, the primary challenge is the overnight gap: major results land while you are away from your desk and can move index CFDs before your local market opens. Before market open (BMO) and after market close (AMC) matter just as much as the numbers themselves. The timing changes how quickly markets react, when liquidity is available and whether the first move has already happened before your session begins.

Why BMO and AMC matter

A BMO result hits before the US cash market opens, so price discovery happens in pre-market trading where liquidity is thinner and moves can be exaggerated. An AMC result hits after close, meaning the reaction is compressed into a short pre-market window the following morning. Understanding which window your company reports in is as important as understanding what it reports.

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The key themes for Q1

For this cycle, the market is no longer rewarding AI mentions alone. It is looking for return on investment (ROI) proof. The four thematic snapshots below help explain where attention is likely to sit as results come through. Each theme has its own section with company cards that can be updated each quarter.

T1
Theme 1 — Institutional anchors

Defence against volatility

These companies are often watched as relative defensives during energy shocks and inflation spikes, although they remain exposed to normal share-price risk. When macro uncertainty rises, money has historically rotated toward businesses with contracted revenue, government-linked demand or pricing power that is not dependent on the consumer cycle — but past rotation patterns do not guarantee future performance.

JPM
JPMorgan Chase
Tuesday, 14 April Confirmed
Watch For

Net interest margin (NIM) under higher for longer rates, and whether AI spending remains cost neutral.

LMT
Lockheed Martin
Wednesday, 22 April Estimated
Watch For

F-35 delivery schedules and the company's ability to absorb tariff related costs on supply chain inputs.

NOC
Northrop Grumman
Monday, 27 April Confirmed
Watch For

B-21 Raider production progress and the conversion of its reported US$95.7 billion backlog into recognised revenue.

T2
Theme 2 — Tangible capital

EVs and energy

As parts of tech slow, investors have been rotating toward tangible, capital-intensive businesses. The energy transition and the infrastructure required to support AI data centre power demand have put utilities and energy companies in an unusual position: they are now growth stocks with defensive characteristics — though all remain subject to ordinary equity and sector risk.

TSLA
Tesla
Thursday, 23 April Confirmed
Watch For

The strategic shift from EV margins toward robotaxi and energy storage as the new growth narrative.

NEE
NextEra Energy
Friday, 24 April Estimated
Watch For

Data centre power demand and progress on its reported 30 GW contracted backlog as utilities face new infrastructure pressure.

XOM
Exxon Mobil
Wednesday, 29 April Estimated
Watch For

Permian and Guyana volume growth, and cash flow resilience during the Hormuz supply disruption.

T3
Theme 3 — The hardware invoice phase

AI infrastructure

This is the engine room of the S&P 500 and the part of the market most tied to whether AI capital expenditure is generating measurable returns. The question the market is now asking is not whether these companies are spending on AI. It is whether the spending is translating into capacity utilisation and revenue that justifies the multiple.

MSFT / GOOGL
Microsoft and Alphabet
Monday, 27 April Estimated
Watch For

Azure and Cloud capacity constraints against heavy AI capital expenditure. The gap between spending and utilisation is the market's primary concern.

NVDA
NVIDIA
Wednesday, 27 May Estimated
Watch For

Blackwell GPU demand and gross margin sustainability as the product cycle matures and competition intensifies.

T4
Theme 4 — K-shaped recovery

Consumer platforms and devices

This theme tests the K-shaped consumer recovery: higher-income cohorts remain more resilient while lower-income cohorts face continued pressure from elevated borrowing costs and energy prices. Ad revenue and device upgrade cycles are the clearest indicators of where on the K-curve the consumer sits.

META / AMZN
Meta and Amazon
28 to 29 April Estimated
Watch For

AI-driven ad click improvements against Reality Labs spending and retail logistics costs as the profitability test for non-core investment.

AAPL
Apple
Thursday, 30 April Estimated
Watch For

iPhone upgrade cycle momentum and the Apple Intelligence rollout in China as the first real-world test of AI-driven hardware demand.

Analysis checklist: how to read each result

Use this structure for every company on your watchlist. A headline beat is common. The bigger market move often comes from how the market translates the details sitting behind the number.

1
Projected consensus

This is the bar for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Small beats may already be priced in. The market often sets a whisper number above the published consensus, so a technically positive result can still disappoint.

2
The call focus

Identify the single variable analysts are most focused on this cycle: capital expenditure versus margins, inventory turnover, customer growth rate, or contract backlog conversion.

3
The translation

A beat, meet or miss each carries a different market dynamic.

Beat Matters most when forward guidance is credible. Without it, the initial move may reverse.
Meet Often shifts focus to the tone of the call, particularly language around capacity or outlook.
Miss Can be treated as the start of a trend and trigger a sharp repricing of valuation multiples.

The recency bias problem

The emotional trap many traders fall into is recency bias. Because the Magnificent 7 have led markets for so long, it can feel as though they are still the only trade that matters. That assumption deserves to be tested.

It's worth asking: Is the obvious trade already priced for perfection?

2026 is shaping up as a year of proof. Companies that spent heavily on AI over the past two years are now being asked to show the return. The market is no longer rewarding the announcement of AI investment. It is rewarding the evidence of AI-driven revenue outcomes.

A better framing question for each result is this: are you reacting to a headline, or are you assessing the company's role in the physical AI supply chain or as a potential volatility hedge? Those are very different analytical tasks, and they tend to produce very different positioning decisions.

What to watch next

Three time horizons, three distinct signals. Update these each cycle with the most relevant near-term catalyst, the sector rotation to watch, and the longer-horizon dispersion theme.

Next Two Weeks
Consumer health barometer

Watch the 31 March Nike report as a lead indicator for consumer discretionary health. Footwear and apparel demand signals tend to front-run broader retail sentiment.

Next 30 Days
Bank lending and industrial demand

Focus shifts to the major banks. If loan demand tied to industrial and infrastructure projects remains firm, the earnings cycle may have support beyond the tech sector.

Next 60 Days
Wider dispersion between winners and losers

Watch for dispersion to widen. The companies converting heavy capital expenditure into measurable revenue outcomes may separate clearly from those that cannot.

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GO Markets
•
March 31, 2026
Mudanças cambiais em abril de 2026, força do dólar americano, USD/JPY 160, fraqueza do dólar neozelandês, DXY 100, reunião do BOJ de abril, CPI dos EUA em abril de 2026, CPI de Tóquio, moedas seguras, divergência de rendimento, câmbio bruto Brent, perspectiva cambial
Forex
Central Banks
Quais pares de câmbio poderiam se mover mais em abril de 2026 e por quê?

Comece com o que realmente aconteceu com os mercados de câmbio antes de abril: houve um choque geopolítico e o fornecimento de petróleo do Oriente Médio ficou sob pressão. A reação imediata nos mercados cambiais foi a que os traders já viram antes: o dinheiro se moveu em direção à segurança, em direção ao rendimento e se afastou de qualquer coisa que parecesse exposta à interrupção.

Fluxos de refúgio seguro atendem à divergência de rendimento

O dólar americano se beneficiou dessas duas forças ao mesmo tempo. É um refúgio seguro e também traz uma vantagem de rendimento que a maioria de seus pares não consegue igualar no momento. O franco suíço recuperou parte do excesso de aversão europeia ao risco. O iene, que costumava atrair fluxos de refúgio seguro quase automaticamente, está preso em uma situação totalmente diferente, em que a diferença de rendimento em relação ao dólar agora é tão grande que a lógica de refúgio seguro foi substituída pela lógica de transporte.

As moedas que tiveram o mês mais difícil foram as que ficaram no meio: taxas de política sensíveis ao risco, vinculadas a commodities ou que simplesmente não conseguem competir. O dólar neozelandês é o exemplo mais claro, enquanto o dólar australiano é uma história mais confusa. Por baixo de tudo isso está uma reavaliação das expectativas de redução das taxas de 2026 que os bancos centrais de vários países estão reavaliando agora.

DXY context

Regained 100 on geopolitical risk

Strongest currency

USD — safe haven plus yield

Weakest currency

NZD — yield gap plus energy

Main central bank theme

Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths

Main catalyst ahead

Fed and BOJ policy meetings

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03 JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05 NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak

Motor mais forte: dólar americano (USD)

O dólar americano passou a maior parte de 2025 gradualmente perdendo terreno à medida que o Fed cortou as taxas e o resto do mundo se recuperou. Essa história estagnou fortemente no final de março. O conflito com o Irã mudou o cálculo e o dólar se reafirmou de uma forma que reflete algo real sobre sua posição estrutural nos mercados globais.

Os EUA exportam petróleo e quando os preços da energia sobem, isso é uma melhoria nos termos de troca, não um choque nos termos de troca. A maioria dos principais pares do dólar está do outro lado dessa equação. Adicione uma faixa de taxa de política de 3,50% a 3,75% que agora parece bloqueada por mais tempo, e a vantagem do dólar é cíclica e estrutural ao mesmo tempo. O Índice do Dólar Americano (DXY) recuperou o nível 100, mas a questão de abril é se ele se mantém lá ou vai ainda mais.

Key drivers

  • Safe-haven demand: The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
  • Yield advantage: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
  • Energy insulation: The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
  • Rate cut repricing: Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.

What markets are watching next

The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.

The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.

Motor mais fraco: dólar neozelandês (NZD)

Se você quisesse criar uma moeda que tivesse dificuldades no ambiente atual, o NZD se encaixa quase perfeitamente no objetivo. É sensível ao risco. É vinculado a mercadorias. Ele tem uma taxa de política de 2,25%, que fica abaixo do Fed e agora também abaixo do RBA. A Nova Zelândia também é importadora de energia, então o aumento dos preços do petróleo atingiu a balança comercial e a perspectiva de inflação doméstica ao mesmo tempo.

Nenhuma dessas coisas é nova, mas a combinação de todas elas batendo ao mesmo tempo, em um cenário de alta do dólar e amplo sentimento de risco, comprimiu o NZD de uma forma difícil de ignorar. O carry trade que antes tornava o NZD atraente foi revertido à medida que o capital estava saindo, não entrando.

Key drivers

  • Energy import exposure: Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
  • Yield gap: The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
  • Risk-off positioning: As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
  • Trade uncertainty: Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.

Risks and constraints

Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY é o par que ilustra mais claramente o que acontece quando o status de porto seguro de uma moeda é substituído pela lógica de transporte. O iene costumava ser o primeiro porto de escala para comerciantes que buscavam proteção durante o estresse geopolítico. Essa dinâmica foi suprimida e o motivo é simples: você abre mão de muito rendimento para manter o iene no momento.

A taxa de política do Banco do Japão (BOJ) está em 0,75%, enquanto a do Fed está em 3,50% a 3,75% e essa diferença não incentiva fluxos de refúgios seguros. Ele incentiva o empréstimo em ienes e a implantação em outros lugares. Portanto, enquanto o dólar subiu devido ao risco geopolítico, o iene caiu no mesmo evento. Não é assim que deveria funcionar, mas é assim que a matemática funciona quando os diferenciais de rendimento são tão amplos.

O USD/JPY está perto de 159, o que o deixa não muito longe do nível 160 que o Ministério das Finanças do Japão sempre sinalizou como uma linha que exige atenção. A reunião do BOJ em 27 e 28 de abril agora é um evento genuinamente ao vivo.

Key events to watch

  • Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT): March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
  • BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST): Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
  • Intervention watch: Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.

What could shift the outlook

A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.

For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.

Dados a serem observados a seguir

Quatro eventos se destacam como os catalisadores de câmbio em potencial mais claros nas próximas semanas. Cada um tem um canal de transmissão direto das expectativas de taxas, e as expectativas de taxa estão impulsionando grande parte da mudança no câmbio no momento.

Key dates and FX sensitivity

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT

A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.

3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT

A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.

10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST

The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.

27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST

The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.

Principais níveis e sinais

Esses são os pontos de referência que os comerciantes e os formuladores de políticas estão observando mais de perto. Cada um representa um gatilho potencial para uma mudança de posicionamento ou uma resposta oficial.

  • ◆
    DXY 100.00

    A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$120

    A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.

One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.

‍

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GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
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