Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.
Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.
The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.
Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.
Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) announced Q4 and full-year earnings results on Wednesday. World’s second largest sporting goods company reported revenue of $2.772 billion for the quarter (up by 30% year-over-year or 33% on a constant currency basis) vs. $2.701 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst expectations at $4.40 per share (up by 30.5% year-over-year) vs. $4.259 per share expected.
Full-year revenue reported at $8.1 billion (up by 30% vs. 2021), EPS at $10.07 per share. Lululemon expects revenue of $1.890 billion to $1.930 billion for Q1. EPS expected to be between $1.93 to $2.00 for the quarter.
CEO and CFO commentary "In the fourth quarter and full year 2022, we delivered strong results across the business driven by our innovative products, powerful guest experiences, and strategic market expansion. Our continued high level of performance is a reflection of the hard work and agility of our incredible teams and the deep connections they create with our guests and communities around the world. As we enter 2023, we look forward to another year of strong momentum across the globe and delivering on our Power of Three ×2 growth plan," Calvin McDonald, CEO of the company said in a press release.
Meghan Frank, CFO of Lululemon also commented on the latest results and delivering for its shareholders: "We are pleased with our performance in the fourth quarter, which remained balanced across product category, channel, and regions. Our ability to exceed our annual revenue target in a dynamic operating environment is a testament to the enduring strength of the lululemon brand. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic regarding our ability to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for all our stakeholders." The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price.
Shares were up by +12.72% at the end the trading session on Wednesday at $360.87 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.66% 3 months: +16.86% Year-to-date: +12.69% 1 year: -4.21% Lululemon price targets TD Cowen: $500 Baird: $425 B of A Securities: $410 BMO Capital: $340 Credit Suisse: $420 Stifel: $460 Wells Fargo: $425 Guggenheim: $440 Citigroup: $440 Telsey Advisory Group: $425 Keybanc: $390 Barclays: $368 JP Morgan: $430 Lululemon athletica inc. is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $46.03 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Lululemon athletica inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US on Friday. The largest bank in the US beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the first quarter of 2023, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $38.349 billion vs. forecast of $36.125 billion.
EPS reported at $4.10 per share vs. $3.414 per share expected. CEO commentary ''Our lines of business saw continued momentum in the quarter. In Consumer & Community Banking, consumer spending remained healthy with combined debit and credit card sales up 10% and card loans up 21%.
In the Corporate & Investment Bank, Markets revenue fell 4% versus a very strong prior year, and we focused on supporting clients as they navigated volatile market conditions. Global Investment Banking fees remained challenged for the industry, although we significantly outperformed the overall wallet. In Commercial Banking, we earned record revenue, with exceptionally strong Payments revenue, up 98%.
Finally, Asset & Wealth Management performed well with strong long-term inflows of $47 billion across products,'' JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also touched on the state of the US and global economy: ''The U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings —consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape. However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks.
The banking situation is distinct from 2008 as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending. We also continue to monitor for potentially higher inflation for longer (and thus higher interest rates), the inflationary impact of continued fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented quantitative tightening, and geopolitical tensions including relations with China and the unpredictable war in Ukraine. While we hope these clouds will dissipate, the Firm is prepared for a broad range of outcomes, and we are confident that we can serve the needs of our customers and clients in all environments.'' ''Finally, I want to recognize our outstanding employees across the globe.
Thanks to their efforts, we extended credit and raised $588 billion in capital in the quarter for small and large businesses, governments, and U.S. consumers, as well as efficiently onboarded a significant amount of new clients across many of our businesses,'' Dimon concluded. The stock rose after beating Wall Street expectations. Shares were up by 7.55% at the end of the trading day on Friday at $138.71 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.27% 3 months: -2.99% Year-to-date: +3.45% 1 year: +10.00% JP Morgan Chase & Co. price targets Barclays: $179 Evercore ISI Group: $146 Morgan Stanley: $153 RBC Capital: $132 Oppenheimer: $157 Wells Fargo: $155 Morgan Stanley: $173 Piper Sandler: $157 Deutsche Bank: $145 Barclays: $189 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $406.68 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a popular tool used by forex traders to assess the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other major currencies. The DXY is calculated using the weighted average of six major currencies: the euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. To use the DXY to trade forex, you can follow these steps: 1.
Monitor the DXY: Keep an eye on the movements of the DXY to get a sense of the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar. You can use technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or trend lines, to identify the direction of the trend. 2. Analyse currency pairs Look for forex pairs that are inversely correlated to the DXY.
This means that when the DXY goes up, the currency pair goes down, and vice versa. For example, the EUR/USD pair is negatively correlated to the DXY, which means that as the DXY goes up, the EUR/USD pair goes down. Plan your trades Once you have identified a currency pair that is inversely correlated to the DXY, you can plan your trades accordingly.
For example, if the DXY is showing signs of weakness, you may want to consider going long on a negatively correlated currency pair, such as the EUR/USD. Manage your risk As with any trading strategy, it's important to manage your risk when using the DXY to trade forex. Make sure to use stop-loss orders to limit your losses in case the market moves against you.
Currency pairs may be influenced by other factors besides the DXY, which may not be a perfect indicator of the US dollar's value. To make informed trading decisions, it is important to combine the DXY with other technical and fundamental analysis tools.
Gold had been trading strongly to the upside since the beginning of March, rising from the 1810 price area to reach the 2000 price area which was last tested in April 2022. However, after reaching the resistance area, Gold retraced lower to test the 1937.50 support area which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline. Currently, Gold is forming a double top chart pattern as the price again retraces from the resistance level at 2000.
With the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator signaling a potential bearish reversal, a confirmation of further downside potential could be signaled if Gold breaks below the bullish trendline. This could see the price trade lower to test the 1917 level, and beyond that, the 1887 support level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Significant moves to the downside on Gold is likely to be driven by a recovery in the strength of the DXY, due to its inverse correlation with the reserve commodity.
Alternatively, if the market uncertainty increases, arising from further developments in the banking crisis or increased concern over possible global inflation, Gold could trade higher beyond the 2000 resistance level, which would invalidate the double-top formation. A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold trade toward the next resistance level of 2070, which was last reached in March 2022.