Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
The long-awaited July FOMC meeting is finally upon us where rates markets are pricing in a sure thing for a 25bp hike (even a small chance of a 50bp), the question that traders will be looking for to be answered is “is this it?”. With a growing number of economists calling this the top in rates, butting up against the FOMC June statement and unwavering Fed speak since, giving guidance that there will be two more this year (including July if it happens). This sets traders up with an intriguing FOMC meeting, with the accompanying statement and Powell Presser sure to see some volatility as traders look for clues as to what’s to come.
With the background of recently cooling inflation, any language around the previously released June dot plots and whether they are still a reasonable estimate of future rate movements will likely be key. Fed Futures odds: Source: CME Fedwatch tool Tis seta traders up with some unique opportunities as the battle between the Market and the Fed should see some real volatility in both direction as market participants digest the statement and then Powell’s presser, which in the past, has contradicted somewhat traders perception of the statement. Charts to watch: DXY – The US Dollar Index It’s been straight up since mid-July after DXY bounced from extreme oversold levels, breaking through and holding the key S/R (and psychological) 101 level, which has held as support in the last couple of sessions.
Despite this recent rally DXY is still in the oversold half of it’s daily RSI, a hawkish Fed pushing back against the market today would likely see DXY push to test the next major S/R level at 102. A dovish Fed could see the recently established support at 101 seriously tested. In my opinion there is more chance of an upside surprise, given the market seems to be leaning towards pricing in a Powell capitulation.
US 10-year government bonds Government bonds are an asset. I think a lot of CFD traders are missing great opportunities in, in the current climate of rates and inflation taking center stage they are one of my favourite markets to trade with some great range trading opportunities. Looking at the chart of the US 10-year with the yields superimposed to see the negative correlation between the two (when you trade bonds, you trade the price, not yield) Over the last twelve months the yield on the 10-year has tested and subsequently struggled to stay above 4%, this turn lower in yields at this level gives a bond trader an opportunity by buying the bond price.
Todays FOMC should see some volatility in yields, I recommend keeping an eye on these over the coming days for some good trading opportunities as yields hit pivotal levels. Today’s FOMC decision is due out at 18:30 GMT
After surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EURUSD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released today. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Year forecast of 5.50%, which is below May’s figure of 6.1%.
If the inflation data comes in above forecasts, we may see a further increase in the EUR as investors move towards the potentially higher yields. On the technical front, the tightening of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is something to watch. The lack of movement in the EURUSD pair throughout this week has led to exceptionally tight Bollinger Bands, with levels not observed on this timeframe since 2021.
When Bollinger Bands contract significantly, it typically signifies a period of low volatility and suggests that a breakout or significant price movement may be on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in overbought territory on multiple timeframes, including the daily. This might suggest there is room for a cool-off before a further continuation higher.
However, with the European inflation data due today, the fundamental data might cancel out any technical signals.
After reaching the high of 1.1250, last tested in 2022, the EURUSD has been trading steadily lower and currently sits along the 1.0850 support level, formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing low from early July. Looking at the technical aspects, the Ichimoku cloud indicates continued bearish pressures, with the top of the channel providing dynamic resistance, highlighting further downside potential for the EURUSD. The current downtrend on the EURUSD has been driven by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) comments in July that there was no clear bias in favour of hiking or holding rates for the upcoming meeting in September.
Coupled with the increasing likelihood of another rate hike to come from the US FOMC in September, as the Fed continues to fight inflation, strength in the DXY has led to the EURUSD trading lower. While a brief retracement could be likely to retest the upper bound of the channel, look for the EURUSD to maintain within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 1.0850, this could signal a confirmation of further downside, with the next key support level at the previous swing low, along the 1.0650 price level.
The EURUSD pair has been navigating challenging waters in recent weeks, experiencing a decline of more than 5% since mid-July. This decline has primarily been due to the USD's strength, as the Federal Reserve remains firm in its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer to bring down inflation. Last week marked a critical turning point for EURUSD as it breached a crucial trend level.
The ascending channel that had been in place since early 2023 was broken, resulting in a swift price decline to around 1.07. Presently, the pair is sitting precariously on an important horizontal support level. The significance of this support level cannot be overstated.
Failure to hold at this level could lead to further downward movement, with the next support zone around the 1.05 mark. This impending test of support comes at a pivotal moment as the market eagerly await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week. The upcoming CPI data will be the main event for USD traders this week.
A decline in inflation could potentially soften the USD, suggesting that the Fed might consider an earlier-than-expected rate cut. On the other hand, if inflation exceeds analyst estimates, it may bolster the USD's strength, potentially causing the EURUSD pair to breach its current support level and head towards lower levels. As we approach the release of the CPI data, all eyes are on this key economic indicator.
Its outcome will undoubtedly serve as a pivotal driver of direction for the EURUSD pair this week.
EU and UK indices are looking to open slightly stronger despite a weak lead from the Asian session. Aussie and Asian indices finish in the red after US-China tech-related frictions and disappointing Japanese GDP revisions weighed on risk sentiment. Asian session wrap - FX Markets The USD was softer with DXY retreating from extreme RSI overbought levels to push below the key 105.00 level.
Dovish commentary from the Fed’s Logan ahead of the Fed blackout window and strength in the Dollars major counterparts outweighing the sour risk sentiment which would normally see the Dollar benefit from haven flows. EUR bounced back after a sell-off on Yesterday’s dismal German data. EURUSD pushing back above the 1.0700 level after finding support at the June lows.
USDJPY was choppy with early drop due to the risk-off mood and MoF jawboning saw the pair test the S/R level at 146.63 before bouncing back as the Asian session progressed. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki stating in comments that rapid FX moves are undesirable and warned the Japanese MoF won't rule out any options (intervention?) AUDUSD rallied to test the key 0.6400 S/R level, despite the risk-off tone and recent commodity pressure. A weaker USD and some technical support from the daily trendline seeming to be the key drivers.
Looking ahead, the main risk events data wise will be Canadian jobs figures later today and Chinese CPI released on Saturday.
The DAX cooled off in yesterday’s session off the back of higher-than-expected German inflation data. With analysis expecting the Year-on-Year rate to fall to 6%, the actual number was higher at 6.2%. This has raised some concerns over the fight against inflation in Germany, putting an end to the three-day green streak for the DAX.
Technically, price bounced nicely off the support zone around 15,500-15,600. This level has acted as both a key area of resistance and support in the past 6 months. Since the first breakout above that zone in March, price has been ranging sideways ever since.
Multiple attempts to break and hold above the January 2022 high have failed, and the recent sell-off coincided nicely at the mid-range level. From a purely support and resistance technical view, there are two scenarios that could occur. The first would be a fall back down to the key support level around 15,600.
The second could be a positive catalyst news even that kicks price through the mid-range resistance level and back up towards the January 2022 high for a 4th attempt at breaking through. Since the recent low 2 weeks ago, the price action formed a more bullish market structure on the lower timeframes. We’ve seen a clean higher high and higher low.
While this bullish structure holds, bulls could remain in control.