Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Tuesdays FX session is turning out to be a mirror image on Monday’s session Where the USD was battered against its major peers. Today, seeing almost a full retrace of those moves as USD is once again king. The Dollar Index (DXY) respected the upward trendline support that has led DXY higher since July (with the exception of a brief break in early September).
A less aggressive CNH fix by the PBoC and sour risk sentiment also helping the Dollar. DXY rebounding strongly in Tuesday’s session so far, the 105 level will be key. DXY has found increasing resistance above this level for the last 12 months and with an empty news calendar in the US a push higher through the key 105 level in today’s session would be tough going.
GBPUSD had an initial and very brief spike higher on a hot headline UK average earnings figure, but quickly retraced from a high of 1.2530, losing the psychological 1.2500 as other jobs data painted a grim picture, with the unemployment rate a 200k+ drop in the employment and downward revisions on previous data weighing on Sterling. USDJPY continued to march higher, looking to fill the gap after the Monday open gap down on Japanese jawboning over the weekend. USDJPY did breach the psychological 147 level earlier in the session but has found some resistance there and at the 23.6 Fibonacci level (147.06) going into the US session.
AUDUSD gave back some of the big gains in Mondays session, but a rebound in the price of iron ore and a relatively firm CNH helped the Aussie stem it’s losses against the USD and certainly out performed its Antipodean rival the NZD. AUDUSD holding the key 0.6400 level trading within 0.6417-40, AUDNZD trading near the top of its recent range, getting to a high of 1.0885 in the Asian session. NZD undermined by downgrades to NZ fiscal projections in a pre-election report.
The US economic calendar is empty of key risk events in Tuesday’s session, all eyes will be on tomorrows pivotal CPI report though.
Comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda over the week saw USDJPY gap significantly lower at the Asian session open. The pair now trading well under 147 from eight-month highs at Fridays close. Ueda commented that the BoJ cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates, this brings the timeline forward of Japanese normalization, previously not signaled to begin until 2024.
US-JPY rate differentials compressed on the news, with the predictable move in USDJPY to the downside. USDJPY found some support at the 4H trendline and has retraced some of its losses in the EU session, hovering just below the key resistance level of 146.63, a resistance level that capped gains in the pair during August. Key UK wage and jobs data released on Tuesday, is looking to show some cooling in the UK jobs market but probably not enough to avoid a September BoE rate hike.
GBPUSD holding the major support at 1.2450 and continuing to rise, reclaiming the psychological 1.2500 level, and piercing trendline resistance to the upside. Tomorrows figure, if a big miss or big beat, should see some action in GBP as rate hike/hold odds adjust. The Aussie dollar has surged today, AUDUSD breaking out of its tight September range and reclaiming the major S/R level at 0.6400.
AUD gaining alongside the CNH after the PBoC set the strongest fix signal on record. Chinese data released over the weekend also showing the worlds second largest economy bouncing back from deflation.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) released its latest earnings results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. Let’s see how it performed in Q3. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation, food delivery Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $9.292 billion for the quarter (up by 11% year-over-year), missing analyst estimate of $9.539 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported above estimates at $0.10 per share vs. $0.071 per share expected. Uber completed 2.4 billion trips during the quarter, up by 25% during the same period last year. Monthly active platform consumers reached 142 million in Q3, up by 15% year-over-year.
CEO and CFO commentary "Our relentless focus on improving the product experience for both consumers and drivers continued to power profitable growth, with trip growth accelerating to 25%," Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi said in a statement. "Uber’s core business is stronger than ever as we enter the busiest period of the year," Khosrowshahi added. "Strong topline trends and record profitability demonstrate the durability of our growth and the significant earnings power underlying our platform," Nelson Chai, CFO of the company said about the latest results. "We continue to make disciplined investments in growth opportunities to support long-term value creation for all stakeholders," Chai concluded. The stock was up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at the highest level since 11th September at $48.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.49% 3 months: +8.92% Year-to-date: +98.91% 1 year: +79.26% Uber price targets Keybanc: $50 Seaport Global: $51 Needham: $60 RBC Capital: $58 Wells Fargo: $59 Loop Capital: $58 JP Morgan: $56 Truist Securities: $60 Morgan Stanley: $60 Uber is the 131st largest company in the world with a market cap of $100.92 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) announced its latest financial results after ther market close in the US on Thursday. Marc Zuckerburg’s company crushed analyst estimates for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how the company and the stock has performed.
The results Meta reported revenue of $34.146 billion for Q3 (up by 23% year-over-year) vs. $33.579 billion expected. EPS reported at $4.39 per share (up by 168% year-over-year) vs. $3.643 per share estimate. The company expects revenue of around $36.5 to $40 billion in Q4.
CEO commentary "We had a good quarter for our community and business," Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms said in a statement to investors. "I'm proud of the work our teams have done to advance AI and mixed reality with the launch of Quest 3, Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, and our AI studio," Zuckerberg added. The stock The stock was down by 3.73% at $288.35 a shon Thursday before the latest earnings were announced. However, the stock has experienced a tremendous year so far and is up by over 130% year-to-date.
Stock performance 1 month: -3.95% 3 months: -11.41% Year-to-date: +139.61% 1 year: +190.68% Mate Platforms stock price targets Truist Securities: $405 RCB Capital: $400 Piper Sandler: $355 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $380 Barclays: $400 Rosenblatt: $411 Keybanc: $380 JP Morgan: $400 Meta Platforms is the 7th largest company in the world with a market cap of $741.01 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs, including Meta Platforms.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Meta Platforms Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Nvidia has been the star of the US markets since the AI hype kicked off late 2022. The trillion-dollar chip manufacturer’s shares have almost tripled in 2023 alone, with the price increasing every month so far this year. In May, Nvidia surprised the markets by posting earnings and revenue figures well above analysts’ expectations.
This sent price rocketing and adding almost $184B USD to the market cap during the following daily session. Nvidia is set to release their Q2 results on Wednesday, so the markets will be watching to see if they have been able to maintain the strong momentum over the past quarter. Markets are estimating earnings of $2.076B and revenue of $11.14B.
Technically, the price has been ranging sideways between $400-$480 since around June 2023. There is a strong support level around $400 that held multiple times in the past few months, so this will be a key level to hold if the earnings on Wednesday are below expectations. If earnings beat expectations, the price could head back north towards the resistance zone at about $470.
Traders will be watching this level to see if there is enough momentum to break through to all- time highs again. With the AI hype cooling off slightly over the past few months, it will be interesting to see how Nvidia performed over the past quarter and if the momentum was sustainable.
In 2022, it was believed that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened three times, in September when the USDJPY was at 145.80, and in October and November when the USDJPY was at the 151.50 and 146.50 price levels respectively. For each of the 3 interventions, the USDJPY reversed strongly by more than 500pips. With the recent steady climb in the USDJPY in August, rising from 138 to the high of 146.50, there have been increasing comments from members of the BoJ and Japanese government regarding the need for an intervention.
The BoJ has avoided interventions, possible for the interim, by announcing increased flexibility on its yield-curve control (YCC). However, the markets viewed the action as insufficient and the stronger DXY continued to take the USDJPY higher. Continued upside on the USDJPY cannot be ruled out, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen significantly.
However, if the USDJPY continues to trade between the 145 and 146.50 price range, the possibility for an intervention from the BoJ increases. For an impactful intervention, the scale and timing of the decision would not be scheduled. A signal would be based on price volatility, in this case, if the USDJPY breaks through the bullish Ichimoku cloud and down from the 145-round number support level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
A reversal of 500 pips, similar to previous interventions, could see the USDJPY retest the trendline, along the 140 price level, with interim support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 141.60 price level.