Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) reported the latest results for the fourth-quarter ending October 29, 2023 and full fiscal 2023 before the market opens in the US on Wednesday. The American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment beat Wall Street estimates for the fourth-quarter but fell short on future outlook expecations. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C.
May (Chairman, CEO & President) The results The company reported revenue of $15,412 billion (down by 1% year-over-year) vs. $13.641 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $8.26 (up by 11.02% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $7.462 per share. Full-year revenue reached $61,251 billion, up by 16.49% vs. 2022.
Deere expects revenue of between $7.75 to $8.25 billion for full-year 2024, below $9.31 billion expected. CEO commentary "Deere’s fourth-quarter and full-year results can be attributed to the successful execution of our Smart Industrial Operating Model and the value that customers recognize in our industry-leading products and solutions," John C. May, CEO of Deere said in a statement. "We must also recognize and credit our dedicated employees, dealers, and suppliers, whose hard work and focus have been instrumental to our overall success," May added.
Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% on Wednesday despite beating analyst estimates for the previous quarter due to future outlook. Stock performance 1 month: -0.80% 3 months: -6.43% Year-to-date: -13.95% 1 year: -15.67% Deere & Company stock price targets Canaccord Genuity: $400 Evercore ISI Group: $424 HSBC: $486 Deutsche Bank: $407 Stifel: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 UBS: $408 Credit Suisse: $551 JP Morgan: $380 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital: $425 Deere & Company is the 126th largest company in the world with a market cap of $106.07 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
The world’s largest supermarket chain Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) released third quarter earnings results before the market opened in the US on Thursday. Walmart beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United States Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) The results Walmart reported revenue of $160.804 billion for the quarter (up by 5.2% year-over-year) vs. $159.651 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.53 per share (up by 2% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.522 per share. Walmart raised its full-year net sales growth forecast from between 4%-4.5% to between 5%-5.5%. Adjusted EPS expected to reach between $6.40-$6.48 per share vs. analyst estimate of $6.48 per share.
CEO commentary "We had strong revenue growth across segments for the quarter, and we’re excited to get an early start to the holiday season. From a Thanksgiving meal that costs less than last year, to great prices on fashion, toys, electronics, and seasonal decorations, we’re here to help families from around the world make this a special time. Looking ahead, our inventory is in good shape, the teams are focused, and our associates are ready to serve our customers and members whenever and however they want to be served,'' CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction" [insert chart image attached to the email] Shares of Walmart fell by around 7% on Thursday on future outlook despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock performance 1 month: -2.37% 3 months: +0.82% Year-to-date: +10.70% 1 year: +6.05% Walmart stock price targets Jefferies: $195 Stifel: $171 Stephens & Co.: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 HSBC: $200 Evercore ISI Group: $177 Citigroup: $180 TD Cowen: $185 Walmart is the 16th largest company in the world with a market cap of $421.71 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Financial Times
Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production figures have traders re-adjusting for a less hawkish Fed and bringing their timing forward for the pricing in of rate cuts. Why this is important to serious FX traders is because rates and FX have a high correlation, even more in the post pandemic period of cuts, hikes and peak rates and maybe cuts again, big FX traders look for yield and that can be used as important information for smaller players to position themselves to take advantage of that.
An example of this relationship can be seen on the weekly chart of the US Dollar index below. The US dollar Index has fallen 2.5% so far in November, a move first started with the big miss in NFP which saw support at the 23.6 Fib level broken, then accelerating this week on a Cooler CPI which saw it take out the 38.2 Fib level support which the price is currently hovering around at 104.41. This along with the situation in yields will be the level to watch in the short term, if yield and dollar bulls take charge a break and support hold could see USDollar first test the lower trend line resistance, with the next stop from a technical point of view being the 23.6 Fib level resistance at 105.545.
To the downside if yields continue their fall the next technical support will be the 50% fib level, paired with the 200-day moving average. Next week there are a few important data points with FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and manufacturing figures all scheduled. For FX traders they will be worth watching for any further clues as to yields and where traders think they will go as they work to front run the Fed.
Australian employment change for October was released today and showed a decent beat of +55k jobs added vs an expected 22.8k while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in line with expectation. AUDUSD reaction was muted, with markets still convinced that we have seen the peak in the RBA rate cycle with futures barely moving the needle on rate hike odds for the RBA December meeting. We did see a small pike higher of around 12 pips on the release, but it seems the resistance above 0.6500 for this pair is going to be tough to crack and the cross rate quickly retraced to a level below when the reading was released.
Looking at the AUDUSD 4-hour chart a double top of testing the major resistance level is forming with both tops entering the extreme RSI overbought level. A repeat of the AUDUSD sell-off back to the range mid-price of 0.6400 is looking a possibility for this pair unless we see another sell-off of the US Dollar. The sole tier 1 news release out of the US for the remainder of this week is weekly unemployment claims, so that will be the one to watch.
USD was mildly bid on Monday ahead of a very busy calendar starting with US CPI later today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a high of 104.26, testing its trendline resistance before paring back to finish the session modestly in the green. DXY continuing to trade in the tight range between its 200-Day MA to the downside and resistance at around 104.25 to the upside.
USD traders have a busy week ahead, along with CPI today, PPI and the FOMC rate announcement are ahead tomorrow. The Japanese Yen dumped after a Bloomberg report citing BoJ sources that said the BoJ sees little need to end negative rates in their December meeting. This saw rates markets rapidly reprice what was a 20% chance of a rate hike, down to just 5%.
This translated to a short squeeze on USDJPY as carry traders flooded back in and saw the pair rally to a high of 146.46. Gold saw another large decline, with XAUUSD dropping almost $30 USD an ounce, breaking through the psychological 2000 level and hitting 3-week lows. XAUUSD now sitting on its 50% Fib retracement support, with the next support lower around the 1950-52 level at the 200-day MA and 61.8 fib level.
Ahead today, the real data starts, headlining will be US CPI where the Y/Y figure is expected to moderate to 3.1% vs 3.2% previous.
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) released Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The US retail giant beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the previous quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Target reported revenue of $25.398 billion for Q3 (down by 4.2% from the same period in 2022) vs. $25.285 billion estimate, according to TradingView.
EPS reported at $2.10 per share (up by 35.9% year-over-year), exceeding analyst estimate of $1.474 per share. CEO commentary "In the third quarter, our team continued to successfully navigate our business through a very challenging external environment. While third quarter sales were consistent with our expectations, earnings per share came in far ahead of our forecast.
This profit performance benefited from our team's commitment to efficiency and disciplined inventory management, and I'd like to thank them for their tireless efforts. Looking ahead, we're continuing to make investments throughout our business -- in our assortment, our team and the services we offer -- to provide the newness, affordability and convenience our guests want during the holiday season and beyond," company CEO, Brian Cornell commented on the latest results and future plans. The stock was up by over 16% after posting better-than-expected results.
Shares were trading at around $129.55 – the highest level since 18/8/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +17.13% 3 months: +0.26% Year-to-date: -13.39% 1 year: -16.97% Target price targets Jefferies: $135 Telsey Advisory Group: $145 Tigress Financial: $180 Evercore ISI Group: $130 B of A Securities: $135 Truist Securities: $116 Stifel: $130 HSBC: $140 Morgan Stanley: $140 Target Corporation is the 270th largest company in the world with a market cap of $59.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia