Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, however this soured during the session seeing most equities finish in the red and supporting the USD with haven flows.
DXY surged through the psychological 107.00 level its highest print since November 2022 and having its biggest up day since February. EUR fell victim to USD strength despite a similar move higher in Euro Zone bond yields. EURUSD pushing below the key 1.05 support level from highs of 1.0591 earlier in the session.
EU Manufacturing and employment data were both in line with expectations, failing to offer the Euro any extra support. Some hawkish ECB talk from member de Guindos where he dismissed talks of rate cuts also not enough to lift the single currency. Technically EURUSD has no clear support from here until the next big figure at 1.04 though it has entered oversold territory on the daily RSI which may lend some temporary support.
USDJPY rose to highs of 149.90 on the surge in US treasury yields just short of the psychological 150 level where traders seem to be wary of pushing through, cautious of a BoJ intervention. Yen weakness came despite jawboning from the Japanese Finance minister and beats in manufacturing data. Yield differentials still the driving force in USDJPY as carry traders pile in, though with some caution at these levels.
AUS and NZD were sharply lower against the USD with risk sentiment souring as the session progressed, base metals also saw pressure, seeing the AUD underperform. NZD also saw notable underperformance but was not as soft as AUD, AUDNZD falling below the key 1.07 level. A big couple of days ahead for the two Antipodeans with the RBA meeting today and RBNZ tomorrow.
Today’s RBA meeting will be the first under Governor Bullock's stewardship with markets expecting the RBA to keep rates unchanged traders will be more interested in the accompanying statement where they will be eyeing any deviations that supports another hike by year-end. Todays Calendar:
US software and hardware manufacturer, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), announced results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter after the market close on Monday. Company overview Founded: June 16, 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) The results Oracle reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates of $12.941 billion (an increase of 5% year-over-year) for the quarter vs. $13.052 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.34 per share, above analyst estimate of $1.327 per share.
CEO commentary "Demand for our Cloud Infrastructure and Generative AI services is increasing at an astronomical rate. As a measure of that demand, Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to over $65 billion—exceeding annual revenue. Our cloud businesses are now at nearly a $20 billion-dollar annual revenue run rate, and cloud services demand continues to grow at unprecedented levels.
Business is good and getting better," Safra Catz, CEO of the company highlighted the growth of the company in a statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.34% at the end of trading on Monday at $115.13 a share. The stock fell in the after-hours trading by around 9% after Oracle missed revenue estimates for the previous quarter.
Stock performance 1 month: 0.86% 3 months: -9.14% Year-to-date: +40.85% 1 year: +41.65% Oracle stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $107 Evercore ISI: $135 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Piper Sandler: $130 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 JP Morgan: $100 Barclays: $147 UBS Group: $135 Citigroup: $138 Oracle Corporation is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $315.22 billion. You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Company overview Founded: February 3, 1999 Headquarters: Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 79,390 (2023) Industry: Cloud computing, Enterprise software, Consulting Key people: Marc Benioff (Chairman & CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $8.72 billion vs. $8.715 billion expected.
Revenue was up by 11% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $2.11 per share (up by 50.71% year-over-year) vs. $2.055 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We had another strong quarter of executing on our profitable growth plan we set in motion last year, delivering $8.7 billion in revenue and again raising our operating margin guidance for this fiscal year," Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce commented on the latest results. "We're now the third largest enterprise software company by revenue, the number one AI CRM and the number one enterprise apps company.
Most importantly, we're bringing CRM, data, AI and trust together in a single, integrated platform, leading our customers into a new era of incredible productivity and growth," Benioff concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Salesforce ended Thursday’s session up by 2.41% at $230.35 a share. The stock was up by 8% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +12.40% 3 months: +6.58% Year-to-date: +72.86% 1 year: +43.03% Salesforce stock price targets RBC Capital: $240 Piper Sandler: $232 Macquarie: $250 Truist Financial: $275 Goldman Sachs: $340 Citigroup: $230 Salesforce Inc. is the 41st largest company in the world with a market cap of $224.35 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The Chinese company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 12,992 (2022) Industry: Internet, Agriculture Key people: Lei Chen The results PDD reported revenue of $7.207 billion for the quarter (up by 94% year-over-year), well above the $5.982 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.28 per share vs. $1.007 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We are dedicated to generating value through innovations, which forms the foundation of our high-quality development," Lei Chen, CEO of PDD Holdings said in the Q3 earnings report press release. "We continued to invest decisively in areas such as agritech, supply chain technology, and core R&D capabilities. Through these efforts, we aim to create our unique value" Chen highlighted where the company is looking to improve moving forward.
Stock reaction The latest results had a huge impact on the stock. Shares were up by over 18% on Tuesday at $139.84 a share – the highest level since March 2021. Stock performance 1 month: +37.67% 3 months: +49.78% Year-to-date: +71.21% 1 year: +78.02% PDD stock price targets HSBC: $125 Bank of America: $112 Credit Suisse: $140 Barclays: $115 JP Morgan: $120 PDD Holdings is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $185.31 billion.
You can trade PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PDD Holdings Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Macrotrends
One of the most anticipated earnings releases in the calendar is here. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced the latest results after the closing bell on Tuesday. Let’s see how one of the companies from the ''trillion club'' performed.
Company overview Founded: 5/4/1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) The results NVIDIA reported revenue that beat Wall Street estimates at $18.12 billion for the third quarter fiscal 2024 vs. $16.12 billion expected. Revenues were up by 205% year-over-year. Earnings per share also beat estimates at $4.02 per share (up by 48.88% year-over-year) vs. $3.367 per share expected.
The company expects revenue of around $20 billion for the fourth quarter. CEO commentary "Our strong growth reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI," Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA said in a letter to investors. "Large language model startups, consumer internet companies and global cloud service providers were the first movers, and the next waves are starting to build. Nations and regional CSPs are investing in AI clouds to serve local demand, enterprise software companies are adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms, and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world’s largest industries.
NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off," Huang highlighted how the world is adapting to and embracing AI. Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.92% at $499.44 a share before the results were announced.
Share price fell by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the market digested the latest results. Stock performance 1 month: +14.39% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: +241.75% 1 year: +211.41% NVIDIA stock price targets Stifel: $600 Piper Sandler: $620 Wedbush: $600 Bernstein: $675 Keybanc: $650 Morgan Stanley: $600 Citigroup: $575 Truist Securities: $668 Jefferies: $610 TD Cowen: $600 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.233 trillion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) released first quarter of fiscal 2024 earnings results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. US semiconductor company reported revenue of $4.726 billion, which was above Wall Street analyst estimate of $4.581 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported loss per share of -$0.95 for the quarter vs. -$1.005 loss per share expected.
Company overview Founded: October 5, 1978 Headquarters: Boise, Idaho, United States Number of employees: Robert E. Switz (Chairman), Sanjay Mehrotra (President & CEO) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: 43,000 (2023) CEO commentary "Micron’s strong execution and pricing drove better-than-anticipated first quarter financial results," Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We expect our business fundamentals to improve throughout 2024, with record industry TAM projected for calendar 2025. Our industry-leading High Bandwidth Memory for data center AI applications illustrates the strength of our technology and product roadmaps, and we are well positioned to capitalize on the immense opportunities artificial intelligence is fueling across end markets," Mehrotra looked at what’s ahead for Micron.
Stock reaction The stock was down by 4.24% at the end of trading on Wednesday at $78.69 a share. Shares rose by around 4% after Micron topped analyst estimates for the quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +2.13% 3 months: +13% Year-to-date: +57.54% 1 year: +53.82% Micron Technology stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $100 BMO Capital Markets: $90 TD Cowen: $100 Susquehanna: $112 Stifel Nicolaus: $76 Bank of America: $95 UBS Group: $90 Mizuho: $86 Citigroup: $88 Barclays: $85 Morgan Stanley: $71.50 JP Morgan: $80 Micron Technology Inc. is the 168th largest company in the world with a market cap of $86.86 billion.
You can trade Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Micron Technology Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap