Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced fourth quarter of 2023 and full year financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday, ending a busy week of earnings. The US banking and payment card services company achieved revenue of $15.799 billion vs. $16.003 billion. Revenue grew by 11% vs. the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.62 vs. $2.639 pe share estimate. EPS was up by 27% year-over-year. American Express set a new full year revenue record at $60.5 billion – up by 14% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reached $11.21 per share – an 14% year-over-year. The company also announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.70 per common share, up from $0.60 per share. Company overview Founded: 1850 Headquarters: 200 Vesey Street Manhattan, New York City, NY 10285, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (2022) Industry: Banking, Payment card services Key people: Stephen J.
Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C. Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We delivered record revenues and profits in 2023, building on the momentum we've achieved since we announced our growth plan in January 2022. We continued to drive strong customer engagement, and demand for our premium products remained robust.
We added 12.2 million new proprietary cards in the year, bringing the total number of cards-in-force issued on our global network to over 140 million,'' Stephen J. Squeri, CEO of American Express commented on the latest results. Squeri also looked at the year ahead, setting expectations for investors: ''Based on the momentum in our business, we are providing full-year 2024 guidance for revenue growth of 9 percent to 11 percent and EPS of $12.65 to $13.15.
Looking ahead, we continue to run the business with a focus on our aspiration of revenue growth of 10 percent plus and mid-teens EPS growth.'' Stock reaction The share price rose by over 7% on Friday, trading at $201.43 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.90% 1 month: +6.47% 3 months: +41.16% Year-to-date: +6.47% 1 year: +15.76% American Express stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $157 Deutsche Bank: $235 Robert W. Baird: $190 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 205 Stephens: $193 The Goldman Sachs Group: $205 Barclays: $184 TD Cowen: $158 Citigroup: $154 Piper Sandler Companies: $151 Morgan Stanley: $175 Royal Bank of Canada: $185 HSBC: $181 Oppenheimer: $175 Bank of America: $202 American Express Company is the 86th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Chinese e-commerce giant, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA), released Q4 2023 earnings results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company achieved revenue of $36.67 billion, which was pretty much in line with analyst estimates. Revenue grew by 5% year-over-year.
Earnings per share was reported at $2.672 (down by 2% year-over-year), just shy of $2.672 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1999 Headquarters: No. 969 West Wen Yi Road, Yuhang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China and George Town, Cayman Islands Number of employees: 235,216 (July 2023) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Joseph Tsai (co-founder & chairman), Eddie Wu (co-founder & CEO), J. Michael Evans (president) CEO and CFO commentary ''We delivered a solid quarter as we are executing our focused strategies across the organization.
Our top priority is to reignite the growth of our core businesses, e-commerce and cloud computing. We will step up investment to improve users’ core experiences to drive growth in Taobao and Tmall Group and strengthen market leadership in the coming year. We will also focus our resources on developing public cloud products and sustaining the strong growth momentum in international commerce business,'' Eddie Wu, CEO of Alibaba said in a statement to investors.
Company CFO, Toby Xu also commented on the latest results: ''Alibaba Group delivered a healthy quarter with revenue growth of 5% year-over-year. We increased our investment in strategic priorities and improved shareholder return by leveraging our strong balance sheet and cash flow. Our board of directors approved an increase of US$25 billion to our share repurchase program, demonstrating our confidence in the outlook of our business and cash flow.
Our consistent share repurchase has also reduced outstanding share count while achieving EPS and cash flow per share accretion.'' Stock reaction The stock was trading at its highest level since 24/11/23 at market close on Tuesday. Shares fell at the open on Wednesady after Q4 results were announced and were down by around 5.94% at $73.59 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +2.04% 1 month: +3.12% 3 months: -13.16% Year-to-date: -4.99% 1 year: -29.94% Alibaba stock price targets Robert W.
Baird: $90 Mizuho: $100 Barclays: $109 Benchmark: $128 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $110 Morgan Stanley: $90 Susquehanna: $150 Truist Financial: $120 UBS Group: $127 Bank of America: $136 HSBC: $135 Citigroup: $147 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is the 62nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $184.07 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
TSLA comes into Wednesdays Q4 earnings report having taken a beating so far is 2024, with the stock price down almost 16% in the first 4 weeks of the new year. Q4 was a quarter that saw the company’s deliveries trend higher, driven by stronger sales of its entry-level vehicles following price cuts, an upside surprise may be on the cards lending relief to stockholders after a big miss in Q3 earnings. Earnings reports for Tesla have been volatile to say the least as mixed results are apparent in the past four quarterly earnings reports, where we have seen two beats and two misses.
For this earnings report, the company is expected to report the same earnings per share (EPS) as Q3, where they missed by 17%, seeing TSLA stock drop around $20 as a result. Looking at the chart TSLA has been trading in a descending channel since August 2023 with a support zone possible between the October ’23 lows of 194.62 and the bottom of the channel around 180.71 if TSLA has another miss. To the upside on a beat the support/resistance level at 232.20 would be the level to watch.
Downside could also be limited by the extreme oversold reading we already see on the daily RSI indicator. Another positive sign for the bulls is skew in the options market currently, with equidistant options from the stock price to the downside (puts) and upside (calls) showing a higher price for calls, while this doesn’t mean the stock price is going higher, it does indicate that options traders are in the belief that a big move to the upside is slightly more likely. TSLA is due to release Q4 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday 24 th of January where they are expected to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.73 on $25.76 billion in revenue.
World’s second largest semiconductor company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM), reported the latest results for Q4 of 2023 before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. TSMC achieved revenue of $19.785 billion in Q4 2023 vs. $19.675 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 14.4% from Q3. Earnings per share was reported at $1.456 per share, which exceeded estimate of $1.385 per share. Company overview Founded: 1987 Headquarters: Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan Number of employees: 73,090 (2022) Industry: Semiconductor Key people: Mark Liu (Chairman), C.C.
Wei (CEO and vice-chairman), Wendell Huang (VP and CFO) CEO commentary "Our fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology. Moving into first quarter 2024, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand," Wendell Huang, CFO of the company said in statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by over 7% during Thursday’s session after the company posted the latest results, trading at $110.32 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +9.03% 1 month: +7.62% 3 months: +18.78% Year-to-date: +6.12% 1 year: +24.84% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock price targets TD Cowen: $95 Barclays: $105 Needham & Company LLC: $115 Susquehanna: $130 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is the 11th largest company in the world with a market cap of $570.66 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) announced reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The largest real estate company in the US reported revenue of $1.756 billion for Q4 of 2023. Revenue missed analyst estimate of $1.85 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share, above $0.588 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 2,466 (2022) Industry: Real estate Key people: Hamid Moghadam (Chairman and CEO), Dan Letter (President), Gary Anderson (COO), Tim Arndt (CFO) CEO commentary "We closed 2023 adding another year of exceptional performance. I couldn't be more proud of our team," CEO of the company, Hamid Moghadam said in a press release to investors.
Moghadam also highlighted challenges for the company for the year ahead: "While uncertainties remain in the economic and geopolitical environment, we are positive about the outlook for 2024. We remain focused on executing the strategy outlined at our recent Investor Forum to drive significant value from our global scale and continue to be a best-in-class partner to our customers." Stock reaction The stock was down by over 2% on Wednesday, trading at $126.86 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/2023. Stock performance 5 day: -5.01% 1 month: -2.77% 3 months: +21.54% Year-to-date: -4.83% 1 year: +3.43% Prologis stock price targets Mizuho: $130 JP Morgan: $148 Scotiabank: $143 Truist Financial: $120 Stifel Nicolaus: $130 Raymond James: $130 Barclays: $153 Evercore ISI: $125 BNP Paribas: $141 Morgan Stanley: $128 UBS Group: $144 Goldmans Sachs: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $145 Prologis Inc. is the 118th largest company in the world with a market cap of $117.21 billion.
You can trade Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Prologis Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
World’s largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), announced second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results on Tuesday. The company achieved revenue of $21.441 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $21.476 billion. Earnings per share reached $1.84 per share (up by 16% year-over-year), which was above analyst estimate of $1.697 per share.
Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 27,560 (2023) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S. Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the second quarter, enabling us to raise our core EPS growth guidance and maintain our top-line outlook for the fiscal year,'' CEO of the company, Jon Moeller, said in a press release to investors. ''We remain committed to our integrated strategy of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority — across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and consumer and customer value — productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization.
The P&G team’s execution of this strategy has enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum. We have confidence this remains the right strategy to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in Tuesday’s session.
Shares were up by 4.39% at $154.35 a share – the highest since 14/9/2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.99% 1 month: +5.71% 3 months: +2.92% Year-to-date: +5.28% 1 year: +8.78% Procter & Gamble price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $162 Barclays: $160 Jefferies Financial Group: $177 DZ Bank: $155 Wells Fargo & Company: $162 Stifel Nicolaus: $151 Sanford C. Bernstein: $153 HSBC: $179 Bank of America: $175 Morgan Stanley: $174 Deutsche Bank: $173 Royal Bank of Canada: $167 Truist Financial Procter & Gamble Company is the 22nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $363.71 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap