Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
American Semiconductor manufacturing company Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) released fiscal first quarter 2024 financial results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company topped analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter in a row. Analog achieved revenue of $2.513 billion for the quarter ending 3/2/24 vs. $2.497 billion expected.
Revenue decreased by 23% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.73 vs. $1.705 per share estimate. EPS was down by 37% year-over-year.
Analog also raised its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.92 a share to be paid on 15/3/24 to all shareholders as of 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: 1965 Headquarters: Wilmington, Massachusetts, United States Number of employees: 24,450 (2022) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: Vincent Roche (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary Company CEO, Vincent Roche said this in a letter to investors: "ADI delivered first quarter revenue and profitability above the midpoint of our outlook, despite the continued difficult macroeconomic environment" "Consistent with our prior view, we expect customer inventory rationalization to largely subside in our second quarter, and thus enter the second half in a more favorable business backdrop. Importantly, we are well positioned to capitalize on the inevitable upswing given our replenished die banks, short lead times, and agile hybrid manufacturing model," Roche concluded his statement.
Stock reaction The latest results had a postive impact on the stock on Wednesday. Shares were up by nearly 2%, trading at $193.03 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.39% 1 month: -2.86% 3 months: +5.45% Year-to-date: -2.99% 1 year: +4.83% Analog Devices stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $205 Wolfe Research: $225 Barclays: $185 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $200 TD Cowen: $210 Truist Financial: $206 Susquehanna: $210 UBS Group: $210 Piper Sandler: $175 Oppenheimer: $215 Morgan Stanley: $225 Evercore ISI: $210 Analog Devices Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $95.76 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Analog Devices, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced the latest financial results before the US market open on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain achieved revenue of $173.388 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $170.854 billion expected. Revenue grew by 5.7% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.80 (up from $1.71 the year prior) vs. $1.643 per share expected. Full-year revenue grew by 6% from the year before $648.1 billion. EPS grew by 5.7% to $6.65 per share.
Walmart also announced that it will acquire electronics company VIZIO HOLDING CORP. in a deal worth $2.3 billion. Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United Kingdom Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) CEO commentary Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart had this to say to investors: ''Our team delivered a great quarter, finishing off a strong year. We crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, even during our highest volume days leading up to the holidays.
We’re proud of the team and excited about building on our momentum as we work to bring prices down for our customers and members.'' Stock reaction Shares rose by over 3% during Tuesday's trading session, trading at $175.75 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.33% 1 month: +8.36% 3 months: +13.31% Year-to-date: +11.62% 1 year: +20.16% Walmart stock price targets JPMorgan Chase & Co.: $176 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 Deutsche Bank: $190 Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Oppenheimer: $185 Morgan Stanley: $168 BMO Capital Markets: $175 Truist Financial: $170 Royal Bank of Canada: $168 Evercore ISI: $177 Jefferies Financial Group: $195 Stephens: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 Walmart Inc. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $473.78 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US manufacturer of building materials Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) announced its latest financial results on Friday. Vulcan Materials reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates. Revenue reached $1.834 billion for Q4 2023 (up by 5.88% year-over-year) vs. $1.837 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) topped expectations at $1.46 vs. $1.398 per share expected. EPS was up by 35.18% year-over-year. Full year revenue was up by 6.38% from 2022 at $7.782 billion.
EPS reached $7 per share, up from $5.11 the year before. Company overview Founded: 1909 Headquarters: Birmingham, Alabama United States Number of employees: 12,000 (2023) Industry: Construction materials Key people: Tom Hill (Chief Executive Officer) Suzanne H. Wood (Chief Financial Officer) Denson N.
Franklin III (General Counsel) CEO commentary "2023 was an exceptional year for Vulcan Materials. We generated over $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, a 24 percent increase over the prior year, expanded EBITDA margin by 360 basis points and generated $1.5 billion of operating cash flow that can be deployed to grow our business. Our industry leading aggregates cash gross profit per ton increased each quarter on a year-over-year basis and was $9.46 per ton for the full year, a 21 percent improvement over the prior year.
Six consecutive years of unit profitability improvement during a continuously shifting macro backdrop demonstrates the durability of our uniquely positioned aggregates-led business. We carry momentum into 2024, and our focus is the same - compounding unit margins through all parts of the cycle and creating value for our shareholders through improving returns on capital," Tom Hill, CEO of Vulcan Materials said in a statement to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was up by over 5% at the end of the trading session on Friday at $255.15 a share – a new all-time closing price.
Stock performance 5 day: +6.31% 1 month: +12.86% 3 months: +20.16% Year-to-date: +12.40% 1 year: +37.44% Vulcan Materials stock price targets Raymond James: $240 Royal Bank of Canada: $236 Morgan Stanley: $208 Stifle Nicolaus: $279 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 DA Davidson: $260 Barclays: $250 Citigroup: $260 Stephens: $260 Loop Capital: $260 Truist Financial: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $265 The Goldman Sachs Group: $212 Vulcan Materials Company is the 555 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $33.90 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Vulcan Materials Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The most anticipated US earnings announcement is coming up with NVDA due to report fiscal Quarter ending Jan 2024 earnings after the Wednesday US market close. NVDA has seen a meteoric rise, quintupling in 2023 and up more than 40% so far in 2024, being the number one stock riding AI mania, making this earnings report one that all investors will be paying attention to. Options markets are pricing in a +/- 11% move to this earnings report, which is exceptional considering the 1.8T size of the company, with Call/Put pricing showing a bias to the upside, which is not surprising with NVDA beating analyst estimates seven of the last eight earnings reports.
There has also been a number of upward revisions in the last four weeks which can be taken as a bullish sign. Source:Nasdaq.com Saying that, NVDA did have the biggest fall of the year on Tuesday, dropping over 4% as some longs booked profits ahead of earnings, so a beat on these figures is certainly not unanimous. This selling action selling could also be an ominous sign of the reaction after earnings if results don’t meet the lofty expectations of Wall St.
Either way traders will likely be rushing to enter or exit the stock depending on the result, so a big move in either direction is probable. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesdays US market close.
US home improvement chain Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $34.786 billion for the quarter (down by 2.9% year-over-year) vs. $34.643 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.82 (down by 14.54% year-over-year) vs. $2.768 per share expected.
Full-year 2023 revenue reached $152.7 billion, down by 3% vs. 2022. EPS was down by 9.5% year-over-year at $15.11 per share. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) CEO commentary "After three years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a letter to investors. "During fiscal 2023, we focused on several initiatives to strengthen the business while also staying true to our strategic investments of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities, and building new stores.
We remain excited about the future for home improvement and our ability to grow share in our large and fragmented market, which we estimate to be over $950 billion. I also want to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities," Decker concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of the trading session on Tuesday at $363.50 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.34% 1 month: +1.08% 3 months: +16.99% Year-to-date: +4.04% 1 year: +13.40% Home Depot stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $366 Telsey Advisory Group: $335 Robert W. Baird: $370 The Goldman Sachs Group: $393 Wells Fargo & Company: $400 TD Cowen: $415 Piper Sandler: $400 Wedbush: $380 Barclays: $372 Truist Financial: $387 Morgan Stanley: $335 Guggenheim: $340 Royal Bank of Canada: $299 HSBC: $365 Home Depot Inc. is the 25 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $358.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Home Depot Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but also pointing to the concerning level of inflation despite recent progress. This was seen as a hawkish leaning hold, seeing AUDUSD rally modestly on the day, today’s minutes will fill in the gaps as to the discussion between RBA members leading to the official decision.
AUDUSD Technical analysis AUDUSD has bounced in the last week after setting new 2024 lows at 0.6442 on the 13 th of February. The steady advance retaking the 0.65 handle and breaching the February resistance level of 0.6525, which has so far held as support. AUDUSD has hit some technical resistance levels here, firstly the 100 Day SMA, which has so far capped further price increase, and further to the upside is the 200 Day SMA and 50% Fib level at around 0.6580 which could also provide technical resistance to any further Aussie upside.
Technical support to the downside could be found firstly at the 61.8 fib level at 0.6513, failing that the 2024 lows at 0.6450. For Aussie traders, along with the RBA minutes today, the main data point will be Wednesdays Wage Price Index, a gauge the RBA has referenced in regards to their rate decisions and could be a big Aussie mover if outside of expected range.