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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
The USD saw decent strength in Wednesdays session, with The US Dollar Index (DXY) rising from an open of 104.67, pushing through the resistance at 105 to hit a high of 105.14 on the back of firmer US Treasury yields. Despite this rally DXY is heading into the end of the month looking to have its first monthly decline since December 2023. Ahead today we have US GDP as well as several Fed speakers, including Williams at the Economic Club of NY.
JPY declines against a resurgent USD with rising US yields pushing the US10Y-JP10y rate differential higher. USDJPY remained above 157.00 and pushing to a high of 157.74 and back in the April intervention zone. Remarks from BoJ Board Member Adachi, who stated that if excessive Yen falls are prolonged and expected to affect the achievement of the BoJ's price target, responding with monetary policy becomes an option, failing to help the Yen significantly.
AUD, and to some extent NZD, saw some short lived strength after a hotter than expected Aussie CPI reading in the APAC session. This strength did fade in the UK and US session with both the AUD and NZD currencies resuming their weakness, tracking risk appetite. AUDUSD just holing above the psychological 0.66 level heading into Thursdays APAC session.
We know that this is slightly contrary to the consensus views but we think it needs to be said. The communication from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is unusually unclear, confusing and conflicted. The view conveyed in statement, press conference and minutes currently we would argue counter each other.
And the reason for this we believe is because the RBA is a reluctant hawk and is frightened to act. Let us now present why we think this and what it will mean for FX and yields in particular. The RBA has just completed a mass review of its operations and one of the key changes was to improve transparency.
This included press conferences, extended meetings, and more public discussions from members. The catch with this has been the mixed communications. Take for example the statement which was extremely ambiguous.
It was filled with terms like uncertainty, mixed signals, and complexity. It explains why the statement has this line: ‘the path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.’ That’s fair – things are complex and we understand why the board is waiting for more data. That was countered with this: ‘ The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.’ Historically, whenever the Board has included such a resolute statement in its communications, they followed up with a cut or a hike in the preceding meetings – the frightened hawk is there and strongly suggests that a rate hike is likely.
The initial AUD reaction to the statement we think shows why the communication is mixed. Then take the press conference – Governor Bullock’s were much stronger than the statement, indicating a significant stance, not really clear in the statement. As mentioned, the Board stated they are not ruling anything in or out, but in reality, they have dismissed the possibility of rate cuts.
That was confirmed when Bullock was asked on this exact point and confirmed that rate hikes were the only things discussed. There was no ongoing discussion about cuts in the near or medium term as they do not expect inflation to reach their target by mid-2026. The Board’s concern is that inflation is notably higher than expected, employment is solid and that overall demand is still generating inflation.
The reaction to all this was clear here: The next notable reaction was the interbank market. All though it doesn’t appear like much in this chart. Please understand this change is actually from a ‘cut’ to ‘hike’ so yes there is a 10% chance of a hike, that is from a 10% chance of a cut.
July will be crucial with substantial data releases, including the second quarter CPI (July 31), GDP figures, and the wage price index. Current forecasts suggest that inflation and employment are performing better than expected, raising concerns about the need for a potential harder landing in the economy to return inflation back to target. The focus is now shifting towards slowing down the economy further despite the per capita recession because in the RBA’s view the impact on the household’s price power in the future from high inflation is still too high.
Future Rate Decisions All things being equal – with the RBA turning itself in knots and trying so hard to stay the course the RBA's commentary suggests it still has preference to hold rates if possible. The big issue as it acknowledges is the possible need for near term tightening due to a lack of progress towards inflation targets. Here is the market’s forecast for rates post the meeting on Tuesday Which probably explains the AUD/USD reactions in the following 24 hours It flatlined – thus the market is telling us that it needs a catalyst, and those catalysts are clearly coming in July.
So to finish what’s the key? A significant upside surprise in the RBA's core inflation measure could lead to a rate hike, despite slowing demand and labour market conditions. We get the monthly inflation data next week, this will be the first strike then the July 31 quarterly read.
This will be huge and will be the biggest AUD mover outside of an RBA meeting. We will be providing as much information on this release the closer we get to the release. However as shown the RBA is a terrified hawk and without this inflation beat, the risk of further tightening diminishes, with expectations for the RBA to remain on hold until potentially the first rate cut in February 2025.
The next RBA meeting on August 6 it’s going to be an interesting 6 weeks for AUD traders ahead of what is a likely live event.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its interest rate policy this Thursday. Market participants are widely expecting the rate to remain on hold, but most importantly, the “language” and the “tone” of the statement will be closely watched. It is unlikely that there will be any surprises from the ECB policy meeting and they are expected to maintain the current guidance about ending bond purchases and keeping rates on hold.
Despite being mostly uneventful, it should stay on the Euro traders radar as policymakers have been slightly more hawkish on the underlying inflation pressures recently and some have even highlighted the possibility of bringing forward the timing of the first rate hike. The growing uncertainty around the Italian budget and fiscal position will be the main significant issue that investors will be keen to watch. This week, the European Commission officially rejected Italy’s budget proposal.
The proposal of the deficit is definitely below the 3% EU deficit ceiling, but the EU was hoping that Italy will curb its massive debt given that they are the second largest public government debt pile in Europe after the Greeks. The debt to equity ratio in Italy currently stands at 131.81% of its GDP, and market participants are concerned on the country’s ability to repay its debt. European leaders have ramped up pressure on Italy over its public spending plans and gave unprecedented warnings.
Source: National Institute of Statistics All eyes will, therefore, be on the President Draghi’s comments on Italy’s budget woes to gauge the thoughts on the developments in Italy and the possible effects it may have on the Eurozone economy. Investors will also closely watch how the ECB is balancing the “external” risks that have become more prominent over the coming months: Threat of protectionism Vulnerabilities in the emerging markets Financial Market Volatility
The Bank of England on the 3 rd August, will announce whether they will increase, decrease or maintain the key interest for the United Kingdom. In this article we will look ahead with some industry experts and see how the UK economy performed last quarter. Who decides the rates?
Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which is made of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks’s Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Expectations According to Bank of England’s Deputy governor Ben Broadbent it is unlikely that the current interest rate of 0.25% will be raised on 3 rd August as the directions of the UK economy remains unclear. Mr Broadbent is a close ally to the Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who in a recent interview said he was not ready to raise interest rates. “In my opinion, it is a bit tricky at the moment to make a decision (to raise the interest rates).
I am not ready to do it yet”. Bank of England rate history in the last 10 years [caption id="attachment_57430" align="aligncenter" width="445"] Source Bank of England[/caption] Economy The UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2017. The growth in Quarter 2 was driven mainly by services, which grew by 0.5% compared to 0.1% growth in Quarter 1 (January to March) 2017.
The largest contributors to growth in services were retail trade and film production and distribution. Construction and manufacturing were the biggest downward pulls on quarterly GDP growth after two consecutive quarters of growth. GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.1% during Quarter 2 2017. [caption id="attachment_57414" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: Office for National Statistics[/caption] Financial Markets The Pound The Pound has been at a steady level for the past few weeks, on 16 th July reaching its highest level against the US Dollar since September 2016.
Most experts predict the rates to remain at the same level in the upcoming Bank of England meeting. The markets would have priced in the outcome already. [caption id="attachment_57416" align="aligncenter" width="600"] GBP/USD Source: Go markets MT4[/caption] Since reaching record highs back in May, the FTSE100 has remained around the same level with no major movement in the Index in the recent weeks. [caption id="attachment_57417" align="aligncenter" width="600"] FTSE 100 Source Go Markets MT$[/caption] Remaining Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates in 2017 The New Note On 18 th July 2017, the Bank of England unveiled the new £10 note which will be issued on 14 th September 2017. The £10 note which features author Jane Austen, will be larger than the new £5 note but smaller than the current £10 note and will is made of plastic and has traces of animal fat.
Speaking at Winchester Cathedral, the resting place of Jane Austen, the Governor Mark Carney said “Our banknotes serve as repositories of the country’s collective memory, promoting awareness of the United Kingdom’s glorious history and highlighting the contributions of its greatest citizens”. [caption id="attachment_57421" align="alignleft" width="435"] The New Ten Source Bank Of England[/caption] The new £10 note celebrates Jane Austen’s work. Austen’s novels have a universal appeal and speak as powerfully today as they did when they were first published. The new £10 will be printed on polymer, making it safer, stronger and cleaner.
The note will also include a new tactile feature on the £10 to help the visually impaired, ensuring the nation’s money is as inclusive as possible. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
The recent USD decline stalled in yesterday’s session with FX traders seemingly taking the view that there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker USD just yet. Aside from the inflation aspect – and markets may have reacted a bit too optimistically to the CPI and PPI – jobless claims also eased back yesterday to 222k after a jump to 232k one week ago, mirroring the January reading where they reached 225k but then dropped back to the 200-210k area. GBP under pressure EURGBP has come off its 0.8610 peak in the past couple of sessions with a strong equity market benefitting the more cyclical and risk sensitive Pound Sterling.
At the same time, volatility in the pair seems to be abating ahead of the key CPI figures in the UK next week. Risks are skewed to the dovish side for the Bank of England, and a move higher in EURGBP is a good chance as traders increase their bets on a June rate cut. Today, the key event for GBP traders is a speech by the BoE’s Catherine Mann, who is considered the MPC’s most hawkish member.
Yesterday, Megan Greene echoed the recent cautious optimism on inflation expressed by Governor Andrew Bailey at the latest meeting.
Mays FOMC minutes released on Wednesday surprised on the hawkish side, bolstering USD and seeing the Dollar Index (DXY) retake the psychological 105 level. While the general view of FOMC members was that policy was “well positioned”, there were a few more than expected who were open to more hikes if needed, questioning whether policy was restrictive enough. Hot March inflation and jobs figures seemingly lingering in the minds of some of the kore hawkish members of the FOMC despite some encouraging April data.
Hawks Neel Kashkari and Chris Waller being the main voices regarding caution from the Fed in cutting too early, though it does seem that the general FOMC sentiment has turned generally less hawkish since the May meeting so any pop in the USD may be short lived. In today’s economic releases for FX traders PMIs are released in the US and eurozone. Given indications from recent data, there is the possibility for eurozone figures to paint a relatively more encouraging picture on inflation than in the US, also Nvidia’s solid results will likely have some positive impact on risk sentiment today.