Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
All the talk about whether Mark Carney will leave the Bank of England in 2019 or not has ended, the current Bank of England governor has extended his stay at the central bank until January 2020 as Chancellor Philip Hammond announced it on Tuesday. So it is now time to focus on the upcoming Bank of England rate decision at on Thursday. Who Decides The Rates?
Interest rates, set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, is made up of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks' Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Expectations It is highly unlikely that the interest rates will rise from 0.75% in the following meeting. However, it will be essential to keep an eye out about the latest UK labour market data, which released by Office of National Statistics for any indications on the central bank's further moves.
UK Economy & Brexit Update On 10th September, the Office of National Statistics released the latest data which showed that the UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in May to July, up from 0.4% growth in three months to June and highest since August 2017. Some positive news on the Brexit negotiations - the European Chief Negotiator for the UK Exiting the EU stated that a Brexit deal could be reached in 6 to 8 weeks. However, as we know from the Brexit process so far, anything could happen in the coming weeks, so it is still vital to keep an eye on comments coming from both sides to see if reaching a deal is even possible.
Financial Markets We saw the Pound strengthen this week against the US Dollar after the latest GDP figures and comments from the EU’s chief negotiator to its highest level since the beginning of August. GBP/USD is currently trading at around 1.30 level. GBP/USD Daily Chart As the Pound strengthened, we saw the FTSE100 fall to its lowest level since April.
Currently trading at around 7270 level. All eyes will be on the Thursday’s decision and comments from Mark Carney. FTSE100 Daily Chart The upcoming rate decision is set to be announced at 1.30 PM London time (GMT +1) Remaining Bank of England Rate Announcement dates for 2018: 1st November 20th December By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4
Just over a month ago Apple became the first company to reach $1 trillion market cap after its shares closed at $207 per share. Now Amazon has become the second company to hit the historic milestone after its share price rose to $2,050 per share. In case you didn’t know, Amazon offers a range of products and services through its websites.
The Company operates through three segments: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Company's products include merchandise and content that it purchases for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices.
Not many people expected Amazon to reach $1 trillion this quickly. Back in March, Brent Thill an analyst from Jeffries stated that Amazon would reach the milestone in 2022 when the share price was at around $1585 per share. But since then, we have seen the share price increase by around 28% and Amazon become world’s second company to reach $1 trillion market cap.
With Amazon continuing acquiring new companies, we could see the share price rising in the future. The Worlds Richest Person It is worth pointing out that Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s CEO is world’s richest person with total net worth of $166 billion. He has increased his net worth by $66 billion just this year alone, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Interestingly, if you bought $10,000 worth of Amazon shares back in September 2008 at $80 per share, they would now be worth around $253,750 USD at the share price of $2,030. You might not be the world's richest person had you made this trade, but perhaps pleased with the overall profit margins. So has the market topped out or is this just the beginning of further growth for the Nasdaq stock?
The jury is still out on this one. By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: TradingView, Google.
AUDNZD – Daily Despite the Australian Dollar having a strong rally towards the end of last year, it appears the New Zealand Dollar is once again regaining the upper hand against its counterpart. New Zealand is ticking many of the economic boxes of late, and from a fundamental point of view, it's not hard to envisage a return of strength for the Kiwi currency. These boxes include a combination of recent policy updates such as the steering away from negative rates and also how New Zealand has successfully managed the global pandemic thus far.
Using the Ichimoku cloud indicator on the daily timeframe, we see an array of factors contributing to the current downtrend in motion. Firstly, both price action and the longer-term lagging span (purple line) are operating below the cloud, which paints an inherently bearish picture. Next, the cloud's thickness located above the current price suggests much resistance to the upside if challenged.
That's not to say it won't fail, but it could cause problems for those looking to go long. We also see the MACD indicator maneuvering southwards with plenty of space to deepen into further bearish territory. Overall, the longer-term outlook at this stage looks rather bleak for the Australian Dollar.
Even shorter-term charts such as the hourly shown below, many indicators replicate the daily snapshot. Interestingly, the price has used the weekly pivot of 1.0673 as resistance, essentially rebounding from this level with pinpoint accuracy. In terms of potential price targets, longer-term, the pair look set to re-test the previous low of 1.0418, where the AUDNZD began the last rally in December.
Additionally, a DiNapoli calculation triangulating the swing highs/lows of 1.10438, 1.04181, and 1.08432 suggests 1.02175 as another possible target. Should this theory come to fruition, it would bring AUDNZD back towards pre-pandemic levels. Given how well both New Zealand and Australia are dealing with the Covid-19 situation, it seems logical for the price to return to this region.
Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg
GBPUSD - Has Cable run out of steam? Looking at GBPUSD, we can see the month of November has kicked off with some impulsive moves higher off the back of potential Brexit deals concluding behind closed doors. In the short-term, we might be witnessing the tail end of the recent rally as price action is showing signs of exhaustion, particularly as it reaches the previous weekly pivot region of 1.31.
We can clearly see some resistance emerging here. Another element to remember is that the trend remains firmly bearish on the daily timeframe, so hints of selling pressure creeping in is perhaps to be expected. If sellers do regain some control, the chart above suggests a key target for the pair would be the double weekly pivot area of 1.29.
Generally speaking, whenever we see these type of pivots, price tends to gravitate towards them as market participants seek a middle ground. GBPJPY - Looking Shaky Above The 200 Day MA Switching to GBPJPY, we are technically in bullish territory thanks to yesterday's close above the 200 Day Moving Average (Gold Line). Considering how price reacted last time above these levels, it might be temporary unless we see further positive reports released for Sterling in the coming days.
Similar to GBPUSD, I see a potential drop on the horizon for the pair, targeting another weekly pivot. On the hourly chart below, we see evidence of some bearish divergence developing on the RSI (Relative Srength Index), coupled with price teetering around overbought levels. It may well become the fuel that sparks a shift towards the weekly pivot of 145.75.
If you would like to see more pivot point action, take a look at our Chart Of The Day on the daily report by Klavs Valters. For more information on trading Forex, check out our regular free Forex webinars. Sources: TradingView.com
2021 has been a profitable year for stocks in the Dow Jones Index. Since the turn of the year, the Dow has seen what appears to be a roaring rally with no end in sight, fuelled by a return of investor confidence and a stimulus package aiming to revitalise a stagnant U.S economy. In the first quarter of 2021, we've seen an increase of over 3000 points (approx. 10%) in the Dow Jones, setting all-time records daily.
One of the main stocks pushing the price ever higher is Chevron. With the resurgence of international travel and consumer demand plus the price of oil rebounding from historical lows, companies like Chevron and Halliburton have seen a wave of new investment. This in turn has boosted their stock price, contributing to the bullish wave in the Dow Jones Index.
One cannot ignore the rise of tech stocks. During the COVID Pandemic, YTD has seen a strong push for Intel (up 30.03% since 31/12/2020) which has contributed significantly to the rally. All indicators point to a bullish market for some time to come whilst bearing in mind we are still in a COVID volatile environment and everything can change.
The market speaks for itself and the market is well and truly behind the rally. Intel Chart Above Source: Yahoo Finance Chevron Chart Above Source: Yahoo Finance By Hasan Albandar
Almost every country in the world has a stock exchange with some countries having multiple exchanges. There are over 60 major exchanges across the globe with the total market cap of over $85 trillion. But only 18 of those are in the so-called ''$1 trillion club''.
The top 18 stock exchanges have a total value of $77 trillion which makes up around 90% of the total global stock exchange market cap. United States The United States has two of the largest stock exchanges in the world - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ). NYSE is the largest with a market cap of just over $23 trillion, that’s around $12 trillion more than second largest stock exchange NASDAQ.
Some of the biggest companies listed on NYSE include the tech giants Apple, Google, Microsoft and world’s 4th largest company by market cap - Amazon. Asia The largest stock exchanges in Asia are located in Tokyo (JPX) and Shanghai (SSE), with total market caps of $6.06 and $4.53 trillion respectively. Some of the largest companies on the JPX include automotive manufacturer Toyota, SoftBank, Mitsubishi and NTT DoCoMo.
Europe The largest European based stock exchange is based in Amsterdam (Euronext) with a market cap of around $4.34 trillion, closely followed by the London Stock Exchange (LSE) at $4.32 trillion. Some of the largest companies listed on Euronext include American multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris, Procter Gamble and HSBC Holdings. South America Brazilian Stock Exchange (Bovespa) is the largest in South America and 20th largest in the world with a market cap of around $783 billion, followed by the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) at $393 billion.
Africa Largest stock exchange in Africa is based in Johannesburg (JSE), South Africa with the market cap of just over $1 trillion. It is worth pointing out that it was the first stock exchange to reach $1 trillion market cap in Africa. Australia At $1.45 trillion market cap the Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) is the largest in Australia with not much competition to the top spot on the continent.
Some of the largest companies include Commonwealth Bank, Westpac Banking Corp, and CSL Limited. The financial sector makes up around 40% of the total market cap of the ASX. Map of the Largest Stock Exchanges by Continent Source: Google Maps Getting Close To A Trillion The closest stock exchange to join the ''$1 trillion club'' is the Spanish Stock Exchange (BME) at $851 billion market cap.
Some of the biggest companies listed include Spain’s two largest banks - Banco Santander and BBVA and global energy company Repsol. Brazilian Stock Exchange in Sao Paolo is second closest the $1 trillion market cap at $783 billion. If it does reach the $1 trillion market cap, it will become the first South American stock exchange to reach the milestone.
Other two exchanges closest to the milestone include the Singapore (SGX) and Moscow (MOEX) stock exchanges at $727 and $621 billion market cap respectively. By Klāvs Valters This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.