Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Oil has seen its first real slip up in price since March. The commodity had been running on the back of high inflation and supply issues stemming from the Russian and Ukraine crisis. During the run Oil peaked at $137 a barrel before entering a period of consolidation.
The recent catalyst for the drop was OPEC announcing that 2023 would likely result in lower demand for Oil. In addition, the threat of Chinese lockdowns is once again rearing its ugly head, adding to the woes. Furthermore, there have been discussion in recent days and week with the President of the USA, Joe Biden pushing for an increase in production.
The price has now fallen out of the wedge and is testing the support level. A strong USD Oil historically moves inversely to the USD. This is because oil is priced in US dollars.
Therefore, when the US dollar is strong fewer US dollars are required to buy a barrel of oil. Conversely, when the USD is weak, more USD is required, increasing the price of Oil. Consequently, with the USD being as strong as it is currently, the price of oil had to at some point fall.
Slowing Growth A recession could be a strong driver for a dip in the price of oil as negative growth has reduces the demand for commodities. Growing economies require Oil and other commodities to develop their infrastructure. Therefore, a recession will likely lead to less manufacturing and less infrastructure development due to a reduction in demand.
Technical Analysis The price of Brent is approaching an important area of support. It can be observed that the price of Brent has broken down from its wedge pattern and following back into the longer-term trend. The price is sitting on its short-term support level of $97.
This level is also of extra importance because it also doubles as the 200-day average. It can therefore be expected that there will be a great deal of volume traded near this zone and that to break through it will require a great deal of selling pressure.
It was a monumental year for two of the biggest electric car makers – Tesla and NIO in 2020. The stocks of both companies rose significantly over the last 12 months with NIO gaining over 1000% and Tesla by over 350% - reaching new record highs. With such gains, both companies have attracted significant public interest and a lot of investors have been keeping a close eye on both of the company’s progress.
But recently, we have seen a bump in the road for both companies with the share price of NIO, Tesla, and other electric car makers dropping, causing concern for the investors. But should this be a concern or an opportunity for investors? I think there would be two sides, but I guess most investors would look at it as an opportunity, seeing that the share price has dropped despite the future prospects for both companies.
There were a lot of doubters for Tesla in its early days when Elon Musk’s company was burning through cash each day, but that hasn’t stopped the company evolve into what it is today and at one point making Musk the richest person in the world. Also – the future of the world is green. A lot of countries around the world have already banned the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 onwards.
However, I think the world is still some way away from being ready for most people to own an electric car, especially from the infrastructure perspective. Most people would probably think that you will need to charge your electric car at a charging station (or at home) and wait hours for it to be done - which in some cases will probably be true. However, the infrastructure for electric cars must be more advanced than that.
We live in a world where we expect everything straight away and the same will happen with charging electric cars - that is why we are seeing companies working on battery swap stations which will make the process quick and easy. The battery in electric cars has long-range and will probably increase over time. For example, NIO’s model ET7 has a battery range of around 621 miles (around 1,000 km).
This means you could drive from London to Paris and back with the same battery charge (the quickest route from London to Paris is 292.3 miles according to Google Maps). But with all the positives, there are and will be challenges for the electric car manufacturers. This week NIO announced that the global chip shortage will have an impact on their car production in the second quarter of the year.
They highlighted that the shortage of semiconductors and batteries will mean that the company will have to cut its production capacity from 10,000 to 7,500 vehicles. The share price of NIO have fallen by over 25% in the last month, trading at around $42 per share. Tesla shares have also seen a drop in the last month, down by 20% - trading at $677 per share.
You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Capital at risk.
Bitcoin has seen a resurgence in recent days on the back of the Ukraine/Russian conflict. The price has risen 15% as money has poured into the cryptocurrency. Western countries have placed economic sanctions as an attempt to reduce military conduct from Russia.
This includes excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT network. Consequently, the Rouble collapsed and in order to protect the Russian economy the Central Bank raised interest rates to 20%. The central banks also restricted foreigners from selling securities.
In response, many Russian citizens have turned to crypto currency as an alternative Rouble. Russian denominated Bitcoin volumes touched 9-month highs in the past week to signify this shift. Technical Analysis The long-term trend of BTC/USD is showing an exhausted double top.
For this to be confirmed the price needs to continue to move down and break through the support level at $28,892. If the price can break through the neckline, then the next price target should be at around $50,000.
This is only Part 2 of a 3-part series containing a full 21 page analysis, highlighting the global opportunities as a result of the introduction of negative interest rates in Japan. Click here to access the full analysis. After looking at the reasons why the Bank of Japan decided to opt for negative interest rates in the first part of this series, we will now see the factors that can help explain why the yen is not going south.
When there is nothing out there: As discussed earlier, part of BOJ’s decision to go into negative rates was to push financial institutions, companies and investors to move their money out of the banks and put those funds to work. However, this is easier said than done. Equity markets across the world are almost in a bear market.
Emerging economies (i.e. China, Brazil) are all weak or at least not inviting. The economic outlook for the developed countries (including U.S) has sharply declined in recent weeks.
The outlook for the commodities is still not clear (to say the least). World indices and commodities performance from 21/5/2015 to 17 Feb 2016 Measured from close to close Germany Shanghai US Australia Japan Commodities Return -21.0% -36.7% -9.6% -12.8% -21.6% -26.7% Max. Draw Down -25.2% -41.4% -14.2% -15.0% -26.0% -29.8% Therefore, not only do the cash rich Japanese companies have nowhere to go, but in the face of current global uncertainty, they became more conservative and started to roll back their foreign investments and wound up their carry trades.
What is a carry trade? A carry trade uses currencies with lower rates to buy those currencies with higher interest rates. For example, a hypothetical carry trader in Japan could borrow from a local bank, convert the proceeds to a foreign currency (shorting the yen) and invest the money in a foreign country (long the foreign currency) to collect a higher interest (in practice, it gets a little more complicated than this, but the idea is the same).
Since the interest that the carry trader receives from the foreign bank is more than the interest he/she has to pay to the Japanese banks, the carry trade makes money. The Risk off Scenario The biggest risk to the carry trades is the currency fluctuations. When risk-off events (such as the existing market turmoil or the commodity rout) forces the currency of the higher interest rate to rapidly depreciate, the Japanese investors would rush back to close those carry trades by selling the foreign currency and buying back the yen.
The unwinding of the carry trades will naturally bid the yen up. To us, this seems to be the biggest driver of JPY’s strength these days. Yen has had a prolonged history of low interest rates.
Therefore, it has been the world’s funding currency for various carry trades for many years. Given this, it is not surprising to see yen strengthening each time there is some sort of a crisis. The red line in the chart below is the S&P 500 index and the black line is the Japanese yen versus US dollar.
The squares on the chart highlight the four most recent market corrections. As you can see, each time that market posted a significant decline in the past 10 years, yen responded by a notable appreciation against the US dollar. To put this relationship into context, the chart below shows yen (the black line) vs the VIX index (the red line).
VIX or the Volatility index is a measure of market nervousness. It has an inverse relationship with the equity markets. Each time traders get worried about stocks, the VIX index increases in value.
The blue line on the lower section of this chart is the 50 day moving average of a 20-day correlation between net changes in yen and VIX. As you can see, there is a generally high correlation between yen and VIX. So whenever VIX rises (as a result of chaos in the stock market) yen rises too.
Impact on Japan Equities: Currency market is not the only market which has disappointed Kuroda. Japanese equities did not behave well either by showcasing higher volatility than the rest of major indices. The table below compares Japan’s stocks return and maximum drawdown from 29 of Jan (when the negative interest rates were announced) through to 17 of Feb 2016.
As you can see Nikkei has depreciated more than any other major indices. Major indices performance since 29 of Jan Japan US Australia Germany Return -9.60% -0.69% -1.33% -4.30% Max. Drawdown -14.65% -5.73% -5.45% -10.67% Additionally, since the beginning of February there has been three cases that Nikkei 225‘s daily returns stretched beyond their three or five times standard deviation band.
On Monday the 15 th of February, Japan’s equities rallied by almost 7.15% (measured from close to close on the cash index) after dropping by more than 5% just in the preceding trading day. A move like this represents five times the standard deviation of the average daily ranges. History has only seen 12 of these moves since 1965.
The number of times Nikkei 225 daily range has gone Beyond 3 and 5 standard deviation since 1965 Index Above 5 Sigma Below 5 Sigma Above 3 Sigma Below 3 Sigma $N225 12 19 107 81 To make the situation worse, we only need to remind ourselves that Japan’s stock market has an inverse relationship to its currency. This is because most of these companies are export driven and cannot naturally perform when yen is too expensive. The chart below clearly shows this relationship.
The black line is JPY against US dollar and the red line is the Nikkei 225 index. Notice how the pair has gone almost perfectly in the opposite direction since 2005. So based on the above, as long as Mr.
Kuroda is not capable of controlling its own currency and as long as the global market turmoil remains intact, the negative interest rates do not seem to be able to help him. But if for some reason, yen starts to depreciate again, except for the banking sector, other sectors may get back on their feet. The reason we are pessimistic on banks is that, as it turns out, Japanese banks (like other European banks) are not intending to pass the negative interest rates on to their customers.
Therefore, further advancement into negative rate territory will eat into banks’ profit margin. The table shows the performance and maximum draw down of Japan’s banking sector (Measured by TOPIX 1615 banks ETF) between 29 of January to 17 of February period. As you can see, banks have massively underperformed the Nikkei 225.
Banks vs the rest of the market in Japan Nikkei 225 Japanese Banks Return -9.6% -20.3% Max Drawdown -14.65% -26.3% Want Access to the Full 21 Page Report? If you want to take advantage of the trading opportunities around the introduction of negative interest rates in Japan, then click here to download the full 21-page analysis. Ramin Rouzabadi (CFA, CMT) | Trading Analyst Ramin is a broadly skilled investment analyst with over 13 years of domestic and international market experience in equities and derivatives.
With his financial analysis (CFA) and market technician (CMT) background, Ramin is adept at identifying market opportunities and is experienced in developing statistically sound investment strategies. Ramin is a co-founder of exantera.com which is a financial website dedicated to risk analysis and quantitative market updates. Connect with Ramin: Twitter | LinkedIn | Ramin's posts
Procter & Gamble Co. reported its second quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday. The US consumer goods company reported total revenue of $20.953 billion, above analyst forecast of $20.335 billion. Earnings per share at $1.66 per share vs. $1.65 a share expected by the analysts on Wall Street.
Jon Moeller, President and Chief Executive Officer commented on the latest results: ''We delivered very strong top-line growth and made sequential progress on earnings in the face of significant cost headwinds.'' ''These results keep us on track to deliver our earnings outlook and to raise estimates for sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners. Our focus remains on the strategies of superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and continually improving P&G’s organization structure and culture. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum.
They remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Procter & Gamble Co. chart (1Y) Shares of Procter & Gamble trading higher after the latest results – up by around 4% during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 23% in the past year at $163.27 per share.
Procter & Gamble Co. is the 19 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $395.64 billion. You can trade Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Co., TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Netflix released its Q4 2021 financial results after the US market close on Thursday. The online streaming service company reported total revenue of $7.709 billion in the quarter, slightly falling short of analyst forecast of $7.71 billion. Earnings per share at $1.33 a share, above analyst estimate of $0.88 a share. ''We achieved several milestones in 2021: we had the biggest TV show of the year (Squid Game), our two biggest film releases of all time (Red Notice and Don’t Look Up) and Netflix was the most Emmy-winning and most nominated TV network and the most Oscar-winning and nominated movie studio of 2021.
Full year revenue of $30 billion grew 19% year over year while operating income of $6.2 billion rose 35% year over year. We finished Q4 with 222m paid memberships (with 8.3m paid net adds in Q4). Even in a world of uncertainty and increasing competition, we’re optimistic about our long-term growth prospects as streaming supplants linear entertainment around the world.
We're continually improving Netflix so that we can please our members, grow our share of leisure time and lead in this transition,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders following the latest results. Netflix chart (1Y) Share price of Netlfix traded lower on Thursday, down by 1.48% at $508.25 per share. The stock is down by 12% in the past year.
Netlfix is the 46 th largest company in the world, with a total market cap of $225.13 billion. You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Netlfix, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap