Will cooling goods prices be enough to offset sticky services inflation, or will resilient hiring keep interest rates higher for longer? Here is what every equity, forex and bond trader needs to watch across the US economic calendar this November.
As October enters its final stretch, attention is turning to the inflation figures, employment updates and Federal Reserve (Fed) communications that could shape US markets in November.
The federal funds target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00% at the time of writing. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 27 to 28 October is still ahead, so the policy setting entering November is not yet settled. The following meeting is scheduled for 8 to 9 December.
Energy prices remain an important variable for headline inflation. The central question for November is whether economic growth moderates while persistent services costs continue to complicate the inflation outlook.
The policy dates follow the Fed’s published calendar. The release count covers the selected reports below, including the provisional ADP release. All calendar dates below are US release dates in 2026. Times are shown in US Eastern Time (ET) and Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT). Australian times fall on the following calendar day and reflect the end of US daylight saving on 1 November. Scheduled dates and times may change.
01 Growth: business activity and demand
November’s growth releases will help assess whether US business activity is maintaining expansion or slowing under current interest rate settings.
Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) releases from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will provide early signals. Retail sales, durable goods orders and trade figures will offer further insight into demand.
The second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) will add detail to the growth picture. The broader question is whether consumption can remain resilient as households manage borrowing costs and savings buffers.
ISM manufacturing PMI
ISM services PMI
Retail sales for October
Q3 GDP second estimate
Sources: ISM, the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Order trajectories: New orders in the ISM surveys and whether services activity remains above the 50 threshold.
- Consumer resilience: Retail sales performance to evaluate household demand heading into holiday shopping.
- Corporate investment: GDP revisions to clarify the contribution of business spending to Q3 growth.
- Borrowing pressures: How consumption trends hold up as households manage borrowing costs and savings buffers.
The following are illustrative scenarios rather than forecasts. Stronger growth: Treasury prices could fall as yields rise, while the US dollar could strengthen. Equities may find support if stronger earnings expectations outweigh concerns about borrowing costs. Softer growth: Treasury prices could rise as yields fall, while the US dollar may soften. Equities could face pressure if concerns about weaker demand and earnings take priority. Traders can monitor these releases on the economic calendar.
Follow US market drivers through November
Keep key economic releases, policy signals and market reactions in view as the month develops.
02 Labour: payrolls and employment conditions
Employment remains central to Fed policy considerations. Wage growth and the balance between labour supply and demand can influence inflation pressures.
November’s releases will help assess whether hiring is settling into a steadier pace or weakening. The October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be a key reference point, alongside unemployment, participation and earnings figures.
JOLTS for September
ADP National Employment Report for October (provisional)
October NFP and unemployment rate
Initial jobless claims
Government release dates follow the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Labor calendars. ADP date and time remain provisional pending publisher confirmation.
- Headline hiring: Non-farm payrolls additions relative to consensus forecasts.
- Unemployment metrics: Shifts in the headline unemployment rate and the labour force participation rate.
- Wage dynamics: Average hourly earnings growth as a gauge of underlying domestic wage pressures.
- Vacancy ratios: Job openings per unemployed worker to evaluate broader labour market tightness.
Employment surprises could change expectations for December policy and generate volatility across equity benchmarks and index CFDs. Stronger NFP: Treasury prices could fall and the US dollar could strengthen if expectations shift towards higher interest rates. Equities may face headwinds from higher expected borrowing costs. Weaker NFP: Treasury prices could rise and the US dollar could soften. Equities may gain if lower borrowing costs are anticipated, but could fall if weaker hiring raises concerns about growth.
03 Inflation: consumer prices and underlying pressures
November’s inflation reports will help assess whether price growth is moving towards the Fed’s longer-run 2% goal. That goal is measured using the annual change in the headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
The consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI) and PCE releases will offer different views of price pressures. Shelter costs and domestic services prices remain important areas to monitor.
CPI for October
PPI for October
PCE price index for October
Sources: the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Core measures: Core CPI monthly and annual readings alongside core PCE figures.
- Shelter costs: Signs of continued moderation across residential rent and owners' equivalent rent.
- Producer pricing: PPI changes in selling prices received by producers rather than input costs alone.
- Target trajectory: How headline and core PCE measures track towards the Fed's 2% annual goal.
Cooling inflation: Treasury prices could rise as yields decline, while the US dollar could ease. Gold may find support if real yields and the dollar fall. Persistent inflation: Treasury prices could fall and the US dollar could strengthen if higher rates are anticipated. Gold could face pressure from higher real yields, although other sources of demand may offset that effect. These relationships are not fixed. Gold, in particular, can respond to factors beyond interest rates and the dollar.
04 Policy, trade and geopolitical risks
November’s market direction could also be influenced by central bank communications, government debt auctions and geopolitical developments.
Minutes of the October FOMC meeting are scheduled for 18 November at 2:00 pm ET, equivalent to 6:00 am AEDT on 19 November. They may provide more detail on the policy debate, although the meeting itself remains ahead at the time of writing.
Energy developments linked to shipping routes and international trade could also affect business costs. Oil supply disruptions remain a source of uncertainty in the outlook.
- FOMC minutes: Scheduled for 18 November to evaluate policy debates from the late-October meeting.
- Treasury debt auctions: Investor bidding demand at intermediate and long-dated Treasury debt sales.
- Corporate guidance: Margin updates and forward guidance from major consumer retailers ahead of the holiday period.
- Energy and logistics: Shifts in crude oil pricing, maritime transport routes and international trade policy.
November key watchlist
October NFP report
Scheduled for release on 6 November 2026.
October FOMC minutes
Policy debate record due on 18 November 2026.
Crude oil and logistics
Energy supply volatility and transport disruptions.
Retail corporate updates
Margin and forward guidance from major consumer retailers.
10-year Treasury yield
Benchmark level tracking broader long-term interest rate trends.
December policy decision
Scheduled meeting taking place on 8 to 9 December 2026.
Navigating November's macro catalysts
From this late-October vantage point, November’s calendar is taking shape, but its starting conditions are not fixed. The October Fed decision and remaining data releases could change the questions markets bring into the new month.
Asset pricing across equities, bonds and currencies may remain sensitive to incoming growth and inflation surprises. You can follow scheduled releases and timings through the GO Markets economic calendar and explore our analysis across major indices and forex CFDs.
Explore US market CFDs
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Information as at 21 October 2026. This preview is written before the Federal Reserve’s October policy decision and looks ahead to November’s scheduled releases.
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