What is a deflationary Cryptocurrency? A Deflationary Cryptocurrency is one that burns, (mints) its supply. This process lessens the number of coins or tokens on the market over a specific period (generally a year), which reduces supply and increases the price.
In general terms, ensuring that there isn’t an oversupply of a currency can be an important monetary tool to reducing inflation. Evidence of quantitative easing and what can happen when there is an oversupply can be seen by the record high inflation seen around the world. The two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are both tipped to become deflationary in the future but for varying reasons Is Bitcoin deflationary?
Bitcoin has a fixed, maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC that will be fully mined in the year 2140. The current supply of BTC is 19,008,012.00 and 20% of this supply has been lost due to forgotten passwords and forgotten keys. It’s projected that Bitcoin may officially become deflationary once its full supply has been created, as the circulating supply will continue to reduce due to holders’ unintentional losses.
Is Ethereum deflationary? Unlike, Bitcoin, Ethereum does not have a maximum supply. Rather, it has an annual supply cap at 18 million ETH.
For Ethereum to become deflationary, 2 ETH would need to be burned per block; this is because this amount is minted for each block that is mined. As per the historical data, the ETH net issuance will dive lower creating a rally in the ETH price as the circulating supply will be less. A common way to achieve deflation is by burning tokens.
Ethereum does this by minting tokens that are staked or when NFTs are minted. A point worth noting is that cryptocurrencies with a finite supply are deflationary by default. When investors buy and hold the coin, the supply reduces.
Ethereum has temporarily turned deflationary in the last few days. An unknown project by the name of XEN has assisted in the burning of ETH. What is XEN?
XEN is a project created by the “Fair Crypto Foundation,” backed by Jack Levin, one of the first employees at Google working on cloud infrastructure. The ethos aims to empower the individual with a token that starts with a zero supply and has no pre-mint, CEX listings, admin keys, or immutable contracts. XEN, which launched on Oct. 8, can be claimed, minted, or staked and is based on the first principles of cryptocurrency: self-custody, transparency, trust through consensus, and permissionless value exchange without counterparty risk.
XEN can only be traded on Uniswap, where there is very little liquidity. Time will tell if the latest hot cake in crypto turns into just another swindle. Key Takeaways ETH has turned deflationary over the past 24 hours.
High gas consumption to mint tokens for the new project XEN Crypto is the primary cause of the ETH supply drop. ETH's supply has dropped on several occasions since Ethereum completed "the Merge" in September. Are you keen to venture into trading Cryptocurrency pairs, FX, stocks or commodities?
If so, you can do so by opening an MetaTrader trading CFD account with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers to get started. Sources: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://xcoins.com/, https://coingape.com/, https://cryptopotato.com/, https://cryptoslate.com/
By
GO Markets
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When the Trump administration pushed global tariffs to 15% in late February, geopolitical risk in the Middle East flared again, and Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve sent a hawkish jolt through bond markets, gold did the thing gold is expected to do in periods of stress. It went up.
Bitcoin did something different. It tracked the Nasdaq. From its October 2025 peak above US$126,000, it fell nearly 50% to the high US$60,000s by early March. The divergence is the story. Gold acted more like a refuge. Bitcoin acted more like a high-beta tech stock with extra leverage strapped on.
For a CFD trader, meaning anyone trading the price move with borrowed exposure rather than owning the underlying, that distinction is not academic. It tells you what you are actually trading when you take a position in either market.
What drove the move
Driver
Gold
Bitcoin
Macro trigger
Tariffs, Middle East risk, hawkish Fed signals
Followed Nasdaq lower; tech sell-off contagion
Structural buyer
Central banks buying ~190 tonnes per quarter
Spot ETFs and institutional adoption
Leverage risk
Crowded long positions; sharp liquidity-driven sell-offs possible
Over US$20 billion in futures wiped in one week (Oct 2025)
Risk model treatment
Crisis hedge, currency debasement play
Bucketed with tech equities by algorithmic desks
Gold is being lifted by three currents at once: central bank stockpiling, investor demand as a hedge against currency debasement, and reactive inflows on tariff and geopolitical headlines.
Bitcoin's drivers are noisier especially as it still benefits from institutional adoption, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a long-running narrative about being "digital gold". But its short-term price is increasingly set by leverage. Algorithmic risk desks now bucket Bitcoin alongside tech equities, so when the VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spikes, those models may cut Bitcoin exposure automatically. That is mechanical, not philosophical.
Why the market cares
How macro signals flow into each asset
Real yields fall
Gold tends to rise. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset drops, making gold relatively more attractive.
US dollar weakens
Can support both gold (cheaper for foreign buyers) and Bitcoin (looser global financial conditions). A stronger dollar may pressure both, though gold has typically held up better in risk-off episodes.
Central banks ease
Bitcoin has historically performed well when liquidity is ample. When liquidity tightens or risk appetite sours, it can get sold first and questioned later.
Tariffs & rate-cut expectations
Both can feed into lower real yields and a weaker dollar, typically gold-supportive. For Bitcoin, the key question is whether the move also represents a broader tightening of risk appetite.
That is why two assets both routinely labelled "safe havens" can trade in opposite directions on the same day.
What CFD traders can watch
Gold CFDs
US dollar index (DXY) direction
Real yields on inflation-protected Treasuries
Central bank purchase data (quarterly updates)
Geopolitical headline tape, especially Middle East
Positioning data: crowded long trades can reverse sharply
Bitcoin CFDs
Nasdaq futures as a leading sentiment signal
Funding rate on perpetual swaps
ETF flow data
Open interest in derivatives markets
VIX levels: fear-driven algorithmic risk cuts
The catch with gold is that the run already looks stretched. The roughly 14% drop across a couple of January sessions was a reminder that crowded trades cut both ways, especially when leveraged institutions need to raise cash and sell what is liquid. Bitcoin can move several percent in an hour for reasons that have nothing to do with the macro story in the morning's news. With CFD leverage, that volatility is amplified in both directions.
What could go wrong
Gold risks
!
New Fed leadership comes in more hawkish than markets expect, pushing real yields higher and weakening gold's tailwind.
!
Gold is not cheap. Crowded long trades are vulnerable to sharp sell-offs even when the longer-term thesis is intact.
!
Central bank buying slows or reverses, removing a key structural support for prices.
Bitcoin risks
!
The "digital gold" thesis does not hold during acute stress; Bitcoin can sell off with risk assets when fear spikes.
!
A recession before central banks ease could deepen short-term pressure before any recovery.
!
Regulatory shifts, exchange failures, or leverage flushes can trigger sharp, non-linear moves.
The bottom line
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same trade in different clothes. Gold has behaved more like an old-school crisis hedge in 2026. Bitcoin has behaved more like a leveraged growth asset that performs best when central banks are pumping liquidity into the system. Both can be useful to track via CFDs. Neither is a guaranteed shelter. Knowing which one you are actually trading, and why, is the difference between hedging risk and accidentally doubling up on it.
Market Opportunity
Trade CFDs across global markets
Follow the themes that move markets and take positions with a defined risk plan.
Latin America recorded $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025. Across the region, 57.7 million people now own some form of digital currency rankingslatam, a base that is growing faster than anywhere else in the world
As institutional capital arrives and regulation matures, these are the publicly traded names investors are watching closest.
Digital banking · 127M users across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia
Nubank could be one of the most direct listed proxies for LATAM's fintech and crypto boom. The company integrated cryptocurrency trading directly into its Nu app and partnered with Lightspark to embed the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and more cost-effective Bitcoin transactions.
In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 42% year-on-year to $4.17 billion, customer deposits rose 37% to $38.8 billion, and gross profit was up 35% to $1.81 billion.
The stock has returned roughly 36% over the past year and tripled the S&P 500's returns over the last three years. The company dominates Brazil, with over 60% of the adult population using Nubank.
Nu Holdings also recently secured conditional approval to launch Nubank N.A., a US national digital bank.However, the announcement triggered a pullback, with investors cautious about capital deployment timelines and expansion costs.
UBS has lowered its price target to $17.20, citing some market caution despite positive operational shifts.
What to watch
Credit quality trends in Brazil and Mexico.
Pace of USDC adoption via Nubank rewards.
US bank charter timeline and early cost disclosures.
2. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)
E-Commerce/Fintech · 18 countries across Latin America
MercadoLibre is not a pure crypto play, but Mercado Pago (its fintech arm) has become one of the most important financial rails in LATAM. The company holds around 570 BTC on its balance sheet as a hedge against regional inflation, and has issued its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, Meli Dólar.
Full year 2025 net revenue from Mercado Pago reached $12.6 billion, up 46% year-on-year, while total payment volume hit $278 billion, up 41%. Fintech monthly active users have grown close to 30% for ten consecutive quarters, and the credit portfolio nearly doubled to $12.5 billion year-on-year.
The catch for MercadoLibre is profitability. Overall margin compression of 5–6% is attributed to persistent investments in free shipping, credit card expansion, first-party commerce, and cross-border trade.
The stock has declined around 14.5% over the past six months, with the market repricing the stock around what management has framed as a deliberate investment phase heading into 2026.
The longer-term case remains compelling. Mercado Pago has introduced crypto-asset management and insurance products across its core markets, positioning it less as an e-commerce company and more as a full-scale digital bank with crypto infrastructure built in.
What to watch
Mercado Pago loan loss trends and credit portfolio quality.
Stablecoin integration and crypto volume through its payment network.
Whether the Argentina credit card launch can reach profitability.
Fintech/Bitcoin treasury · Brazil's first listed Bitcoin treasury company
Méliuz is the most direct equity expression of the corporate Bitcoin treasury trend in LATAM. In early 2025, Méliuz became the first publicly traded company in Latin America to formally adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, receiving shareholder approval to allocate cash reserves toward Bitcoin accumulation.
Rather than issuing cheap dollar-denominated debt to buy BTC, Méliuz uses share issuance and operational cash flow. The company also sells cash-secured put options on Bitcoin to generate yield, a playbook borrowed from Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, keeping 80% of BTC holdings in cold storage
CASH3 essentially acts as a leveraged vehicle for BTC exposure, capturing upside intensely in bull cycles, but generating greater volatility on the way down, especially where debt is involved.
The stock surged approximately 170% in May 2025 following the announcement of the Bitcoin strategy.However, it has since pulled back to its April 2025 levels, broadly tracking Bitcoin's price action and highlighting the stock's volatility.
Pure-play Bitcoin treasury · LATAM's largest corporate Bitcoin holder
Where Méliuz is a fintech business that also holds Bitcoin, OranjeBTC is the opposite: a company whose entire purpose is Bitcoin accumulation.
The company listed on B3 in October 2025 through a reverse merger with education firm Intergraus, marking Brazil's first public debut of a firm whose business model centres entirely on Bitcoin accumulation.
OranjeBTC currently holds over 3,650 BTC and raised nearly $385 million in Bitcoin, with backing from notable investors including the Winklevoss brothers, Adam Back, FalconX, and Ricardo Salinas.
Its $210 million financing round was led by Itaú BBA, the investment arm of Brazil's largest bank, in a significant vote of institutional confidence.
In 2026, OBTC3 has fallen around 32% year-to-date, making it the hardest-hit of the two Brazilian Bitcoin treasury stocks.The stock hit an all-time high of 29.00 BRL on its listing day (October 7, 2025) and an all-time low of 6.06 BRL in February 2026.
It currently trades around 7.06 BRL, a steep discount to its debut, but one that closely mirrors Bitcoin's own pullback from peak levels.
OranjeBTC is the most volatile name on this list and should be treated as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle. Liquidity is thinner than established names.
What to watch
Bitcoin per share trajectory.
Any capital raises or new BTC purchases.
Potential international listing ambitions.
How the market-value net asset value (mNAV) discount/premium evolves relative to Bitcoin's price.
5. Hashdex — HASH11 (B3: HASH11)
Crypto Asset Management · Brazil's leading crypto ETF issuer
Hashdex offers a different kind of exposure to crypto. Rather than a single company's balance sheet or business strategy, HASH11 is a diversified basket of crypto assets wrapped in the familiarity of a regulated Brazilian ETF structure.
Brazil hosts 22 ETFs offering full or partial exposure to crypto assets, with Hashdex funds attracting 180,000 investors and daily transaction volumes averaging R$50 million.
Hashdex launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil's B3 in April 2025, tracking the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index and allocating at least 95% of net assets to XRP.
The company also operates single-asset ETFs for Bitcoin (BITH11), Ethereum (ETHE11) and Solana (SOLH11), alongside its flagship HASH11 multi-asset index fund.
In mid-2025, Hashdex launched a hybrid Bitcoin/Gold ETF (GBTC11) that dynamically adjusts allocations between the two assets.
For investors who want diversified crypto market exposure rather than single-asset risk, HASH11 is the most accessible on-ramp through Brazil's regulated equity infrastructure.
However, as a multi-asset crypto index, HASH11 is still subject to the broad performance of digital asset markets. And unlike the equity names on this list, there is no operating business creating independent value.
What to watch
Crypto market sentiment broadly.
Potential expansion of Hashdex products into the US market.
AUM growth as institutional adoption accelerates in Brazil.
Relative performance of HASH11 vs single-asset alternatives.
Institutional infrastructure is still in early innings — Deutsche Börse's Crypto Finance Group entered LATAM in early 2026, and local exchanges have opened over 200 BRL-denominated trading pairs since 2024. The pace of that buildout will set the tone for all five names.
Regulatory progress in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile is the key enabler for the next wave of capital. Any setbacks would hit the higher-beta names like OBTC3 and CASH3 hardest.
Stablecoin volume is the region's most reliable real-time signal. Despite a global slowdown in early 2025, LATAM still recorded $16.2 billion in trading volume between January and May, up 42% year-on-year. Watch whether that momentum holds — a reacceleration lifts all five; a reversal pressures them equally.
Latin America (LATAM) saw over $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025, a 60% year-on-year surge that made the region responsible for roughly 10% of global crypto activity.
In 2026, institutional players are starting to take the region seriously, regulation is crystallising, and the structural drivers from 2025 show no sign of fading. But the region is not a single story, and 2026 will test whether the current momentum is built on solid fundamentals or speculative optimism.
Quick facts
LATAM monthly active crypto users grew 18% year-on-year (YoY), three times faster than the US.
Argentina reached 12% monthly active user penetration, accounting for over a quarter of the region's crypto activity.
Over 90% of Brazilian crypto flows are now stablecoin-related.
Three LATAM countries rank in the global top 20: Brazil (5th), Venezuela (18th), Argentina (20th).
Peru's crypto app downloads grew 50% in 2025, with 2.9 million downloads.
From survival tool to financial infrastructure
Latin America did not embrace cryptocurrency because of speculation. It embraced it because traditional financial systems repeatedly failed ordinary people. Over the past 15 years, average annual inflation across the region's five largest economies ran at 13%, compared to just 2.3% in the US over the same period.
In Venezuela, it reached 65,000% in a single year. In Argentina, it exceeded 220% in 2024. For millions of people, holding savings in local currency was a slow act of self-destruction. Stablecoins became the natural response. Digital assets pegged to the US dollar offered a reliable store of value, borderless transferability, and access without a bank account.
Unlike in the West, where crypto is seen more as a speculative instrument, in LATAM it has become a necessary financial tool. However, adoption drivers are not entirely uniform across the region. Brazil and Mexico are institutional stories, driven by regulated market participation and established financial players.
Argentina and Venezuela remain store-of-value plays, with crypto serving as a direct hedge against fiat collapse. And Peru and Colombia are more yield-seeking markets, where crypto offers returns that traditional savings accounts cannot match.
How fast is LATAM adopting crypto?
LATAM’s on-chain crypto volume rose 60% year-on-year in 2025. The region has recorded nearly $1.5 trillion in cumulative volume since mid-2022, peaking at a record $87.7 billion in a single month in December 2024.
Monthly active crypto users across LATAM also grew 18% in 2025, three times faster than the US.
Stablecoins are the primary vehicle driving this adoption. Of the $730 billion received in 2025, $324 billion moved through stablecoin transactions, an 89% year-on-year surge. In Brazil, over 90% of all crypto flows are stablecoin-related, and in Argentina, stablecoins account for over 60% of activity.
Looking ahead, the Latin America cryptocurrency market is forecast to reach $442.6 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate of 10.93% from 2025, according to IMARC Group.
For traders, the speed of adoption matters less as a headline than what is driving it: a region of 650 million people building parallel financial infrastructure in real time, with stablecoins as the foundation.
LATAM Crypto — By The Numbers
LATAM crypto by the numbers
Total on-chain volume
$730B
Total on-chain crypto volume received across LATAM in 2025 (~10% of global total)
+60% year-on-year
Stablecoin transaction volume
$324B
LATAM stablecoin transaction volume in 2025, reflecting surging demand for dollar-pegged assets
+89% year-on-year
Brazil's share of LATAM volume
~33%
Of all LATAM on-chain volume received by Brazil in 2025, making it the region's dominant crypto market
~250% annual growth
Annual remittance market
$142B
Annual remittance flows across Latin America, with an increasingly large share now settled in stablecoins
Stablecoin-settled
The institutional turn
For most of LATAM’s crypto history, adoption was bottom-up. Unbanked or underbanked retail users drove volumes through local exchanges. That picture is now changing at the top end of the market.
In February 2026, Crypto Finance Group, part of the leading global exchange operator Deutsche Börse Group, announced its expansion into Latin America, targeting banks, asset managers, and financial intermediaries seeking institutional-grade custody and trading infrastructure.
Traditional banks and fintechs are following suit. Nubank now rewards customers for holding USDC. Brazil's B3 exchange approved the world's first spot XRP and SOL ETFs, ahead of the US, in 2025. Centralised exchanges, including Mercado Bitcoin, NovaDAX, and Binance, have collectively listed over 200 new BRL-denominated trading pairs since early 2024.
In March 2025, Brazilian fintech Meliuz became the first publicly traded company in the country to launch a Bitcoin accumulation strategy, now holding 320 BTC.
“Crypto adoption in LatAm is already global-scale. What the market needs now is institutional-grade governance, and that’s exactly why we’re here,” — Stijn Vander Straeten, CEO of Crypto Finance Group
Crypto remittance use case
Latin America receives hundreds of billions of dollars annually from workers abroad, making remittances one of the most concrete and measurable crypto use cases in the region. Traditional transfer services charge an average of 6.2% per transaction. On a US$300 transfer, that is roughly US$20 in fees.
Blockchain-based infrastructure more broadly offers dramatic fee reductions. Bitcoin brings costs to around US$3.12 per US$100 transferred. While cheaper alternatives like XRP or Ethereum layer-2 infrastructure can reduce that to less than US$0.01.
For a migrant worker sending US$1,500 home to Peru, switching from a legacy bank saves more than the average Peruvian weekly wage in fees alone.
LATAM’s crypto regulatory environment
The variable that will most determine whether LATAM lives up to its 2026 potential is crypto regulation. And here, the picture is genuinely mixed.
Brazil leads the region with its Virtual Assets Law, which covers asset segregation, VASP licensing, AML/KYC requirements, and capital standards. It also implemented the Travel Rule for domestic VASP transfers, which came into force in February 2026. However, some more controversial proposals, including a US$100,000 cap on cross-border stablecoin transactions and a ban on self-custody wallet transfers, remain under active consultation.
Mexico's 2018 Fintech Law remains one of the world's earliest formal recognitions of virtual assets. Chile's 2023 Fintech Law established licences for exchanges, wallets, and stablecoin issuers, formally recognising digital assets as 'digital money.'
Bolivia reversed a decade-long crypto ban in June 2024 by authorising regulated digital asset transactions. Argentina introduced mandatory exchange registration in 2025. And El Salvador continues to expand tokenised economic initiatives despite removing Bitcoin's legal tender status.
Ten countries across the region now have formal crypto frameworks of some kind. But for traders, regulatory divergence remains a live risk, and given Brazil receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto volume, any significant policy reversal there could have outsized consequences.
Brazil's institutional momentum is the most significant structural trend. With $318.8 billion in on-chain volume in 2025, Brazil effectively is the LATAM market.
The outcome of the Brazil stablecoin consultation could have a big influence. A restriction on foreign stablecoins in domestic payments would directly impact the most traded asset class in the region's dominant market.
Argentina is the volatility play. Monthly active user penetration of 12% and 5.4 million crypto app downloads in 2025 signal deep and growing retail engagement.
Colombia is an early-warning market to watch. The peso's 5.3% depreciation in 2025 and deepening fiscal crisis are driving stablecoin inflows in a pattern that mirrors Argentina's trajectory in earlier years. If Colombia's macro situation deteriorates further, crypto adoption could accelerate.
There is also an exchange concentration risk at play. Binance crypto exchange is the primary exchange for over 50% of LATAM crypto users. If the exchange faces any regulatory action, operational disruption, or competitive shock, it could have an outsized market impact.
Bottom line
Latin America's crypto market has entered a new phase. The structural drivers that caused initial crypto-demand in the region have not gone away: inflation, remittances, financial exclusion, and currency instability are all still at play.
What has changed is the layer being built on top of them. Institutional infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, corporate treasury adoption, and global exchange capital flowing into a region that was, until recently, largely self-contained.
Brazil's near-250% volume growth in 2025 and its position receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto are the defining market developments. Its regulatory trajectory, stablecoin policy decisions, and ETF pipeline will effectively set the tone for the region in 2026.
For traders, the headline growth figures are real, but so are the concentration risks, regulatory uncertainties, and country-level divergences that sit beneath them.
When the Trump administration pushed global tariffs to 15% in late February, geopolitical risk in the Middle East flared again, and Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve sent a hawkish jolt through bond markets, gold did the thing gold is expected to do in periods of stress. It went up.
Bitcoin did something different. It tracked the Nasdaq. From its October 2025 peak above US$126,000, it fell nearly 50% to the high US$60,000s by early March. The divergence is the story. Gold acted more like a refuge. Bitcoin acted more like a high-beta tech stock with extra leverage strapped on.
For a CFD trader, meaning anyone trading the price move with borrowed exposure rather than owning the underlying, that distinction is not academic. It tells you what you are actually trading when you take a position in either market.
What drove the move
Driver
Gold
Bitcoin
Macro trigger
Tariffs, Middle East risk, hawkish Fed signals
Followed Nasdaq lower; tech sell-off contagion
Structural buyer
Central banks buying ~190 tonnes per quarter
Spot ETFs and institutional adoption
Leverage risk
Crowded long positions; sharp liquidity-driven sell-offs possible
Over US$20 billion in futures wiped in one week (Oct 2025)
Risk model treatment
Crisis hedge, currency debasement play
Bucketed with tech equities by algorithmic desks
Gold is being lifted by three currents at once: central bank stockpiling, investor demand as a hedge against currency debasement, and reactive inflows on tariff and geopolitical headlines.
Bitcoin's drivers are noisier especially as it still benefits from institutional adoption, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a long-running narrative about being "digital gold". But its short-term price is increasingly set by leverage. Algorithmic risk desks now bucket Bitcoin alongside tech equities, so when the VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spikes, those models may cut Bitcoin exposure automatically. That is mechanical, not philosophical.
Why the market cares
How macro signals flow into each asset
Real yields fall
Gold tends to rise. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset drops, making gold relatively more attractive.
US dollar weakens
Can support both gold (cheaper for foreign buyers) and Bitcoin (looser global financial conditions). A stronger dollar may pressure both, though gold has typically held up better in risk-off episodes.
Central banks ease
Bitcoin has historically performed well when liquidity is ample. When liquidity tightens or risk appetite sours, it can get sold first and questioned later.
Tariffs & rate-cut expectations
Both can feed into lower real yields and a weaker dollar, typically gold-supportive. For Bitcoin, the key question is whether the move also represents a broader tightening of risk appetite.
That is why two assets both routinely labelled "safe havens" can trade in opposite directions on the same day.
What CFD traders can watch
Gold CFDs
US dollar index (DXY) direction
Real yields on inflation-protected Treasuries
Central bank purchase data (quarterly updates)
Geopolitical headline tape, especially Middle East
Positioning data: crowded long trades can reverse sharply
Bitcoin CFDs
Nasdaq futures as a leading sentiment signal
Funding rate on perpetual swaps
ETF flow data
Open interest in derivatives markets
VIX levels: fear-driven algorithmic risk cuts
The catch with gold is that the run already looks stretched. The roughly 14% drop across a couple of January sessions was a reminder that crowded trades cut both ways, especially when leveraged institutions need to raise cash and sell what is liquid. Bitcoin can move several percent in an hour for reasons that have nothing to do with the macro story in the morning's news. With CFD leverage, that volatility is amplified in both directions.
What could go wrong
Gold risks
!
New Fed leadership comes in more hawkish than markets expect, pushing real yields higher and weakening gold's tailwind.
!
Gold is not cheap. Crowded long trades are vulnerable to sharp sell-offs even when the longer-term thesis is intact.
!
Central bank buying slows or reverses, removing a key structural support for prices.
Bitcoin risks
!
The "digital gold" thesis does not hold during acute stress; Bitcoin can sell off with risk assets when fear spikes.
!
A recession before central banks ease could deepen short-term pressure before any recovery.
!
Regulatory shifts, exchange failures, or leverage flushes can trigger sharp, non-linear moves.
The bottom line
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same trade in different clothes. Gold has behaved more like an old-school crisis hedge in 2026. Bitcoin has behaved more like a leveraged growth asset that performs best when central banks are pumping liquidity into the system. Both can be useful to track via CFDs. Neither is a guaranteed shelter. Knowing which one you are actually trading, and why, is the difference between hedging risk and accidentally doubling up on it.
Market Opportunity
Trade CFDs across global markets
Follow the themes that move markets and take positions with a defined risk plan.
Markets enter May with the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, the Fed having concluded its 28-29 April meeting, and the next decision not due until 16-17 June. Brent crude is trading near US$108 per barrel, with the IEA describing the ongoing Iran conflict as the largest energy supply shock on record as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The macro tension this month is straightforward but uncomfortable: an oil-driven inflation impulse landing into a labour market that surprised to the upside in March, while Q1 growth came in soft.
The Federal Reserve has revised its 2026 PCE inflation projection to 2.7% and continues to signal one cut this year, though the timing remains contested. With no FOMC scheduled in May, every high-impact release may carry more weight than usual into the June meeting.
Fed Funds Rate
3.50% to 3.75%
Next FOMC
16-17 June 2026
Brent Crude
~US$108
Key data events
6+ high-impact releases
Growth: business activity and demand
The growth picture entering May is mixed. The Q1 GDP advance estimate landed on 30 April, while softer retail sales and inventory data have made the demand picture harder to read.
ISM manufacturing has been a quieter source of optimism, with recent prints holding in expansionary territory. Energy costs and tariff effects are now the variables most likely to shape the next move in business activity.
Key dates (AEST)
02
May
ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
Institute for Supply Management · 12:00 am AEST
High
06
May
ISM Services PMI (April)
Institute for Supply Management · 12:00 am AEST
Medium
15
May
Retail Sales (April)
US Census Bureau · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets look for
Whether manufacturing PMI holds above 50, with the prices paid sub-index giving a read on input cost pressure
Services PMI as a check on the larger share of the US economy, particularly employment and prices
Retail sales control group, which feeds into consumption forecasts
Any sign that sustained Brent crude above US$100 is starting to affect household spending
How this data may move markets
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Equities
Activity data prints firmer
↑ Yields rise
↑ Firmer
Mixed - depends on valuation stretch
Activity data softens
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
Support if inflation cooperates
Labour: payrolls and employment data
The April Employment Situation is one of the most concentrated risk events of the month. March payrolls came in stronger than expected, while earlier data revisions left the trend less clear. April will help show whether the labour market is genuinely re-accelerating or simply absorbing seasonal noise.
Key dates (AEST)
06
May
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 12:00 am AEST
Medium
06
May
ADP National Employment Report (April)
ADP Research Institute · 10:15 pm AEST
Medium
08
May
Employment Situation, April (NFP)
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets may watch
Headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) and the size of any prior-month revisions
Average hourly earnings, with energy-driven cost pressure keeping wage growth in focus
Unemployment rate and labour force participation
Sector mix, including whether goods-producing payrolls show signs of disruption
Market sensitivities
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Equities
Firm NFP/wage growth
↑ Yields rise
↑ Strength
Pressure on valuations
Soft NFP/weak print
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
Mixed - risk of growth scare
Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE
April inflation lands as the most market-relevant data block of the month. The March consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3% over the prior 12 months, with energy up 10.9% on the month and gasoline up 21.2%, accounting for almost three quarters of the headline increase. With Brent holding near US$105 to US$108 through the latter half of April, a further passthrough into the April CPI energy component looks plausible.
Core CPI and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remain the better read on underlying trend.
Key dates (AEST)
12
May
CPI (April)
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
High
15
May
Producer Price Index (PPI), April
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
Medium
29
May
Personal Income and Outlays/PCE (April)
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets may watch
Headline CPI year on year, especially the gasoline component
Core CPI, including shelter, services excluding shelter and core goods
PPI as a read on producer-level passthrough from energy and tariffs
Core PCE, which remains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
Market sensitivities
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Commodities
Inflation cools/surprises lower
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
Gold consolidation
Headline runs hot/core sticky
↑ Yields rise
↑ Strength
Gold supported on stagflation risk
Policy, trade and earnings
May has no FOMC meeting, so policy attention shifts to Fed speakers, the path of any leadership transition, and the dominant geopolitical backdrop. Chair Jerome Powell's term concludes around the middle of the month. President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, with the Senate Banking Committee having held a confirmation hearing.
The Iran conflict, now in its ninth week, remains the single largest source of macro tail risk, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and stalled US-Iran talks setting the tone for energy markets and broader risk appetite. Q1 earnings season is in its peak weeks, with peak weeks expected between 27 April and 15 May, and 7 May the most active reporting day.
What to monitor this month
Iran-US negotiations and the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz
Fed speakers and any change in tone between meetings
Q1 earnings, especially from retail, energy and cyclical names
Weekly EIA crude inventories
Any tariff-related announcements that may affect inflation expectations
Bottom line
May is not a quiet month just because there is no FOMC meeting. Payrolls, CPI, PPI, retail sales and PCE all land before the June policy decision, while oil remains the dominant external shock.
For markets, the key question is whether the data points to a temporary energy-driven inflation lift, or a broader inflation problem arriving at the same time as softer growth. That distinction may shape the next major move in bonds, the US dollar, gold and equity indices.
Asia-Pacific markets start May with a more complicated macro backdrop than earlier in 2026. Regional growth has shown resilience, but higher energy prices are testing inflation expectations, trade balances and policy flexibility across fuel-importing economies.
For traders, the month's focus is likely to sit across three linked areas.
China Focus
Activity data
April CPI, PPI and purchasing managers' index (PMI)
Japan Focus
BOJ signals
Corporate goods prices and April CPI
Australia Focus
RBA decision
Statement on Monetary Policy and April CPI
Main Regional Risk
Energy volatility
Trade-sensitive sentiment
China
China remains central to the May Asia-Pacific market drivers outlook because its data can influence commodity demand, regional equities and the Australian dollar. The April data round may help traders assess whether the early-year recovery is broadening or still reliant on production, exports and policy support.
Key Dates (AEST)
30
Apr
Official PMI
National Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
Medium
11
May
CPI and industrial producer price index (PPI)
National Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
High
18
May
April activity data
Industrial production, retail and property · 12:00 pm AEST
High
27
May
Industrial economic benefits
National Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
Medium
What markets may look for
Whether CPI data suggest demand-led inflation or continued subdued household pricing power
Whether PPI data point to improving factory margins or cost pressure from energy and raw materials
Whether retail sales show a firmer household sector or continued reliance on production and exports
Whether property data continue to weigh on confidence, construction demand and local government revenue
Why China matters for the region
China data can influence sentiment toward Asian equities, iron ore, copper, energy markets and the Australian dollar. Stronger domestic demand may support commodity-linked sentiment, while softer retail or property figures may keep markets focused on policy support and downside growth risks.
Japan inflation and BOJ signals
Japan's May calendar is less about a fresh BOJ rate decision and more about how markets interpret the April policy meeting, inflation data and wage-sensitive price trends. That matters because Japanese government bond yields and the yen remain sensitive to any shift in policy normalisation expectations.
Key Dates (AEST)
07
May
Minutes of the March BOJ meeting
Bank of Japan · 8:50 am AEST
Medium
12
May
Summary of Opinions – April BOJ meeting
Most market-sensitive Japan event · 9:50 am AEST
High
15
May
Corporate goods price index
Tracks input cost inflation · 9:50 am AEST
Medium
22
May
National April CPI
Statistics Bureau · 9:30 am AEST
High
29
May
Tokyo May CPI
Leading indicator for national trends · 9:30 am AEST
High
What markets may look for
Whether the BOJ still sees conditions for gradual policy normalisation, or whether energy-driven inflation complicates the outlook.
Whether goods and services inflation remain consistent with the 2% inflation objective.
Whether corporate goods prices reflect energy cost pass-through into producer pricing.
Whether Tokyo CPI points to firm or easing near-term price pressure ahead of the June meeting.
Why Japan matters
Japan’s data can influence yen volatility, Japanese government bond yields and the Nikkei 225. A stronger inflation pulse may support expectations for tighter policy over time, but energy-driven inflation can also pressure households and corporate margins. That balance may keep yen and equity reactions data-dependent.
Australia and the RBA decision
Australia has one of the clearest domestic policy events in the region in May. The RBA's Monetary Policy Board meets on 4 and 5 May, with the decision statement and Statement on Monetary Policy due at 2:30 pm AEST on 5 May. The Governor's media conference follows at 3:30 pm AEST.
Key Dates (AEST)
29
Apr
March CPI
Final read before RBA decision · 11:30 am AEST
High
05
May
RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy
Key domestic volatility event · 2:30 pm AEST
High
19
May
Minutes of the May RBA meeting
Reserve Bank of Australia · 11:30 am AEST
Medium
27
May
April CPI
First read on energy pass-through · 11:30 am AEST
High
What markets may look for
Whether the RBA gives more weight to inflation persistence or household demand risks in its decision statement.
Whether the Statement on Monetary Policy adjusts inflation, growth or labour market assumptions from the February update.
Whether April CPI confirms or challenges the inflation narrative after the May decision.
Whether labour conditions remain firm enough, with unemployment at 4.3% in March, to keep services inflation in focus.
Why Australia matters
Australia’s May data may influence AUD/USD, ASX 200 rate-sensitive sectors and short-end bond yields. A firmer inflation profile could support expectations for a restrictive RBA stance, while softer activity or household signals may limit how far markets price additional tightening. For index CFDs and forex CFDs, this is the highest-signal domestic event of the month.
Regional swing factors
Energy remains the main cross-market risk for May. Higher oil and gas prices can lift inflation, widen trade gaps and reduce policy space, particularly for economies dependent on imported fuel such as Japan, South Korea and parts of South-East Asia.
Regional themes to watch
ASEAN purchasing managers' index releases may indicate whether manufacturing momentum is broadening or losing speed. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Asian FX may remain sensitive to China data and global risk appetite. Iron ore and energy prices may influence Australia and China-linked equities. The RBA, BOJ and People's Bank of China face different inflation and growth trade-offs, and energy supply concerns may continue to shape inflation expectations and risk sentiment across the region.
Key watchlist
01
Top China Data Point
18 May activity data, particularly retail sales and property indicators
02
Top Japan Event
12 May BOJ Summary of Opinions from the April meeting
03
Top Australia Event
5 May RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy
04
Main Regional Wildcard
Energy price volatility linked to Middle East developments
05
Most Sensitive Market
AUD/USD, given its link to China demand and RBA repricing risk
06
Key Condition Shift
Evidence that inflation pressure is becoming persistent rather than mainly energy-led
Bottom Line
May’s Asia-Pacific calendar gives markets several points to reassess the region’s inflation, growth and policy mix. China data may shape commodity and risk sentiment, while Japan’s inflation signals and the RBA decision will guide rate pricing.
Energy remains the primary regional risk. If inflation pressure appears more persistent rather than energy-led, markets will become increasingly sensitive to central bank communication and yield repricing.
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