Technical analysis

Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in late September. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 24.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 26.

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass, authored by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, highlights how El Niño 2026-2027 could constrain copper output in the African Copperbelt.

EUR/GBP reverses earlier gains on Tuesday as fiscal and political concerns in France limit the Euro’s (EUR) upside, while the technical picture also suggests sellers remain dominant.

MUFG’s Michael Wan analyses recent Reserve Bank of India actions and their impact on the Indian Rupee. He notes that RBI’s new FX and liquidity measures have sharply strengthened spot USD/INR, but also pushed stress into forwards, offshore NDFs and bonds.

Francesco Pesole at ING highlights a supportive backdrop for the Pound, with EUR/GBP now expected to trade in a 0.84–0.85 range for several months as Euro-specific risks persist and the Bank of England signals readiness to hike. While ING sees BoE expectations as too hawkish for 2027, one or two hikes look increasingly likely, and the budget risk is seen as manageable for Sterling.

Crude Oil trades lower on Tuesday, as investors ponder the impact of the US President, Donald Trump’s decision to lift the ban on Russian diesel imports.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, except the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean is under pressure even as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes of the September policy meeting remains hawkish.

Societe Generale technical analysts highlight that Brent has been consolidating sideways after meeting an interim hurdle near $110 in September. The contract remains above its 50-day moving average around $97, keeping upward momentum intact. Brent is now testing a short-term descending trend line, with potential objectives at $110 and $114/$116, while the recent $102 low acts as first support.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses how the US Dollar (USD) reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s move away from traditional forward guidance.