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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
In a time when you consumers could potentially be feeling domestic budgets tighten up, by the result of surging high inflation and rise in prices of commodities, you would be forgiven to be receiving the news that some of the biggest oil companies in the world, have acquired record profits with some skepticism, you would even question if these companies are acting in the best interests of its consumers instead of their shareholders? That’s the question that the Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) made, when he wrote to four major oil companies today demanding answers for how they are using their record high profits, and what – if anything – each company is doing to alleviate peoples’ pain at the pump. The letters come as drivers continue to bear the burden of higher-than-average fuel costs at the same time as the four major oil companies announced quarterly earnings of nearly $50 billion combined.
Exxon alone reported a profit of $17.9 billion – the highest quarterly profit reported by any oil company in history – while Chevron reported $11.6 billion, Shell reported $11.47 billion, and BP reported $8.45 billion ( USD ). The heat seems to be coming from all angles at the minute with various diplomats chipping in, back in June, president Joe Biden singled out Exxon for criticism, saying: Why don’t you tell them what Exxon’s profits were this year? This quarter?
Exxon made more money than God this year. Energy analysts at SP Angel says: The five remaining Majors (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP & Total) have announced c.$59bn in 2Q22 profits, up almost 100% y/y, and returned c.45% of this to shareholders during the quarter. Based on their aggregate $1.1 trillion market cap, this quarter would represent an implied annualised profit margin in excess of 20%.
Some however have a more pragmatic approach and advise that the sector has been haemorrhaging money the last few years, a clampdown on pollution, a focus on a greener future and investment in renewable energy have curtailed some of the industries profits. Consider that in the past 10 years, major oil and gas companies suffered tremendous losses in 2014, 2015, and 2020. In fact, in 2020 the five integrated supermajors (i.e., “Big Oil”) – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total – lost $76 billion.
Oil prices plunged into negative territory in 2020. Were the oil companies feeling especially generous then? ExxonMobil for example doesn’t set oil prices.
They are set in the market by how much people are willing to pay, just like with Apple stock. U.S. oil companies are price takers, not price makers. Yes, speculators have an influence, just as they do with Apple stock.
Even OPEC and Russia don’t control oil prices, although they do have tremendous influence relative to ExxonMobil. If ExxonMobil decided to produce less oil to drive the price up, it just hurts ExxonMobil because OPEC and Russia can easily make that up. But if OPEC and Russia decide to produce less oil, there isn’t much the rest of the world can do to make that up.
This is a particularly unique asset class and one which investors could access in different ways, you could trade the spot price of US and UK oil also known as WTI and BRENT oil respectfully, you could directly buy or sell shares in these companies or invest in ETFs which have exposure to energy companies. If you would want to be a position to take advantage of these companies’ profits and the price action movement which follows it? Visit us here at GO Markets where you have a choice between trading the spot price as an CFD or acquiring shares through our share portfolio service.
Sources: Forbes, The Guardian, mirror.co.uk, https://energycommerce.house.gov/
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Monday. One of the world’s largest gold producers reported revenue of $2.874 billion vs. $1.178 billion expected. The Canadian company reported earnings per share of $0.24 per share for Q2, also beating analyst estimate of $0.23 per share. ''A stronger Q2 performance across the portfolio has kept Barrick on course to achieve its annual gold and copper production guidance while continuing to progress its key growth projects.'' ''Gold production for the quarter was higher than Q1 at 1.04 million ounces — driven mainly by Carlin and Turquoise Ridge in Nevada, Veladero in Argentina, and Bulyanhulu and North Mara in Tanzania — and is expected to grow further in the second half of the year.
Copper production came to 120 million pounds.'' ''A dividend of $0.20 per share was declared for the quarter on the back of the strong operating performance and net cash of $636 million. During the quarter, Barrick repurchased $182 million in shares under the $1 billion share buyback scheme introduced earlier this year,'' the company wrote in a press release. Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) chart The stock price rose on Monday, up by around 5% at $16.27 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -4.18% 3 months -24.29% Year-to-date -14.37% 1 year -20.87% Barrick Gold price targets Barclays $25 Jefferies $24 UBS $34 Deutsche Bank $35 Credit Suisse $22 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 608 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.08 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported its Q2 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The American biotechnology company posted results that beat expectations, sending the stock higher at the open. The company reported revenue of $4.749 billion for the quarter vs. $4.097 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $5.24 per share vs. $4.58 per share estimate. "Today's earnings represent a strong second quarter performance, with $10.8 billion in revenue for the first half of the year. We continue to have advance purchase agreements for expected delivery in 2022 of around $21 billion of sales. Given our strong financial position and commercial momentum, we are announcing today that the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion," Stéphane Bancel, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Despite the slowing economy and challenges in the biotech industry, Moderna is in a unique position: a platform to drive scale and speed in research of new medicines, a strong balance sheet with $18 billion of cash and an agile, mission-driven team of over 3,400 people and growing.
We will continue to invest and grow as we have never been as optimistic about Moderna's future. Right now, we have four infectious disease vaccines in Phase 3 trials, and later this year, we expect important data from proof-of-concept studies in rare diseases and immuno-oncology. Our teams are actively working to prepare these new product launches to help patients and drive growth.
This is an exciting time for Moderna as we continue to see significant scientific and business momentum," Bancel concluded. Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart The stock was up by around 14% on Wednesday at $187.11 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +16.71% 3 Month +20.11% Year-to-date -26.68% 1 Year -55.56% Moderna price targets SVB Leerink $77 Piper Sandler $214 Morgan Stanley $199 Deutsche Bank $155 UBS $221 B of A Securities $180 Moderna is the 180 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.57 billion.
You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Todays RBA policy meeting is expected by most analysts to result in a 50bp hike as the bank tries to play catch up and get on top of elevated inflation figures. The slightly lower Q2 CPI figures released last week has seen futures markets price out what was earlier feared could be a 75bp supersized move, a 50bp hike would see the bank able to respond further in September should the Wage price index data due on 17 August show an alarming increase in wage costs. A 50bp hike today will bring the cash rate up to 1.85% which means we would be looking at least a further 65bp of hikes coming to bring the cash rate to the neutral level of 2.5% indicated by RBA governor Lowe at the last RBA policy meeting.
Currently August rate futures are trading at an implied yield of 1.76%, pricing in a rise of 41bp which indicates traders are giving around an 80% chance of a 50bp hike. Bond traders are rarely wrong when this much is priced in so I expect a 50bp move today with the accompanying statement giving clues to Septembers meeting where it’s looking so far as a toss up between 25 or 50bp. Expected AUD reaction If a 50bp hike is announced, the most likely course in the short term for the AUD will be an initial spike up due to the markets only pricing in 80%, then volatility as the algos read the statement, and more volatility as humans get through it.
Followed by a sustained move in either direction depending on how markets re-price after digesting what the RBA has released. Keep an eye on our Twitter page for instant reaction to the RBA announcement Also please join us on our live webinar of the RBA meeting and market reaction, register at the link below RBA Live Webinar
PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) announced its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The US financial technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion in Q2, topping Wall Street estimate of $6.778 billion. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates for the quarter at $0.93 per share vs. $0.87 per share estimate. ''Our second quarter results were solid with currency neutral revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth exceeding expectations.
We continue to gain share as we execute across our key strategic initiatives, even as we drive operational efficiency across our business.'' Dan Schulman, President and CEO of PayPal said in a press release after the latest results. PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) chart Shares of PayPal were up by 1.20% at the close of trading on Tuesday $89.63. The stock rose by around 11% after better than expected Q2 results.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.47% 3 Month -1.19% Year-to-date -52.47% 1 Year -67.23% PayPal price targets Berenberg $145 Oppenheimer $101 Keybanc $100 Wells Fargo $97 JP Morgan $112 JMP Securities $100 RBC Capital $92 Piper Sandler $93 Truist Securities $80 Credit Suisse $95 Morgan Stanley $129 PayPal is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $103.79 billion. You can trade PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: PayPal Holding Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported its Q2 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. World’s third largest pharmaceutical company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $27.742 billion in Q2 (up 47% year-over-year) vs. $25.487 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.04 per share (up by 92% year-over-year) vs. $1.72 per share estimate. Dr. Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO commented on the latest results: ''In multiple meaningful ways, we made significant progress this quarter on our strategies to bring value to our patients and shareholders, while also making commitments to prioritize the broader needs of the world, including those of the environment and our most vulnerable populations.
For example, we set an ambitious goal for ourselves to achieve the Net-Zero Standard for greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, ten years ahead of the timeline described in the standard. We also launched an initiative to help bring all of our current and future patented medicines and vaccines to the 1.2 billion people living in 45 lower-income countries around the world at not-for-profit prices, a first in the industry.'' ''Even while launching these initiatives to support a healthier, more equitable world, we remain equally committed to strong financial execution on behalf of our shareholders. In the second quarter, we recorded the largest amount of quarterly sales in our history.
We also presented potentially best-in-class data for etrasimod and announced the proposed strategic acquisition of Biohaven, both of which are closely tied to our purpose: Breakthroughs that change patients’ lives,'' Dr. Bourla concluded. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart Despite beating Wall Street expectations for Q2, shares of Pfizer were down by around 1% at $50.98 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -2.82% 3 Month +0.87% Year-to-date -13.72% 1 Year +19.07% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley $49 Wells Fargo $55 Citigroup $57 B of A Securities $70 Goldman Sachs $51 Pfizer Inc. is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $285.76 billion. You can trade Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap