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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Brent oil has been dumping over the last few weeks as country’s have put pressure on Russian oil by imposing a price cap. This has sent the spot price down to its lowest level in 12 months. With important economic data to come in the next few days in including updated Cash rates from Central banks in Europe, the UK, and the USA.
Furthermore, the CI figures from the USA will be released which as well will provide an update as to the extent at which inflation has become controlled or is still yet to peak. Any result that encourages growth whether it be lower interest rates in the future, or some other stimulus may be seen as a positive for the price of oil. Similarly, as China awakens from its Covid 19 slumber the demand for brent may increase lifting the price again.
From a technical perspective over the last few days the price has finally found some support, at least in the short term. On the daily chart, the price is near a long-term support zone and is almost due for e a bounce. The price is sitting on a ledge between $77 and $79 as it consolidates and determines what it will do next.
This is also supported by the RSI which is showing an oversold signal that has shown in the past to be a decent predictor of a bounce in some form. Looking closer at the hourly chart, the price is in a short-term consolidation. This is supported by contracting volume after the initial rise in price.
This may indicate that a breakout is imminent. It would be ideal to wait for a rush of volume and a price increase above the $78.21 before entering and then the initial target is $80.71. The price of oil is still very much influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors and there can be highly volatile.
The primary reason for the drop in price is the economic slowdown that has become prevalent in the global market. As fears of a recession continue to grow, the price of Oil has continued to drop. To make matters worse, the G7 have set a $60 per barrel price cap.
This price cap was created to restrict Russia’s ability generate revenue from its oil exports by making the G7 Oil more competitive. From a fundamental perspective this may push the price lower towards the price cap. On the contrary, Russia has threatened to reduce its supply which would force the price to rise.
The situation remains volatile and subject to geopolitical shifts. From a technical perspective the price of Brent Oil is now at its lowest level for the year and below the levels prior to the Russia and Ukraine war. The price is also now well below the 200 day and 50 day moving averages and is dropping at a fast rate.
The price is currently resting on the $76 support levels with the next point of support at $70. If this level fails, as stated above the logical support is $60 based on the price cap. It is also interesting to note that the price of Brent is at its lowest RSI level since December 2021.
In recent times every time since 2022, it has been this low the price has bounced in the short term. On the weekly chart, the price is very similar although the RSI has more room to go before it hits the oversold level. This indicates that there may be more of a sell off before a bounce occurs.
With global volatility still high and fears of a recession continuing to grow, the price of oil may continue to fall.
AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reported the latest financial results for its first quarter of fiscal 2022 (12 weeks) that ended on November 19, 2022. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts reported revenue of $3.985 billion (up by 8.6% year-over-year) vs. $3.865 billion expected. The company reported EPS of $27.45 per share for the quarter (an increase of 6.9% year-over-year) vs. $25.258 per share expected.
AutoZone opened 35 new stores during the quarter. ''I would again like to thank and congratulate our AutoZoners across the Company for their ongoing commitment to deliver great results and exceptional customer service. Their efforts allowed us to deliver solid same store sales results on top of last year’s very strong 13.6%. While our Commercial sales growth accelerated 15%, our retail sales also grew impressively from a year ago.
We continue to believe our initiatives to grow our business position us well for the remainder of our fiscal year,'' Bill Rhodes, Chairman, President and CEO of AutoZone said in a press release after the announcement of the latest results. As of November 19, 2022, the company had 6,978 stores within the United States (6,196), Mexico (706) and Brazil (76). The stock was down by around 5% on Tuesday at $2383.48 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: -3.77% 3 months: +12.70% Year-to-date: +14.56% 1 year: +18.68% AutoZone price targets Wells Fargo: $2850 Truist Securities: $2533 Raymond James: $2500 Argus Research: $2330 Jefferies: $2450 JP Morgan: $2660 Wedbush: $2350 Citigroup: $2520 UBS: $2260 Goldman Sachs: $2296 AutoZone is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.54 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The major American Indices have begun the last month of the year with in an extremely bearish state as recessionary fears rise to the surface again. With the positive sentiment relating to a potential pivot from the federal reserve seemingly disappearing, thoughts of a hard landing have become increasingly prominent. Even with an expected slowdown in interest rate hikes many analysts fear that it won’t be enough to pull the economy out of a recession or even a soft landing.
Technical Analysis The S&P500 has seen a major pivot off its long term down trend. The index has fallen by nearly 4.5% too begin the month and is showing a very similar price action to the three last downward moves. In addition, the 200-day moving average has once again acted as significant resistance for the index as it tried to reverse out of the down trend.
The RSI has also seen a break of its upward trend adding to the confirmation of the overall breakdown as buying has become exhausted. Moving forward, there is likely to be some potential support in the short term near 3900. However, if this support fails then the secondary target or support levels is a 3800 and then 3504 after that.
Therefore, there is potentially a large swing to the downside if the sentiment becomes worse and selling continues. The NASDAQ in particular has been following a similar trend to the S&P500 whilst the Dow Jones Index has been the more resilient of the US Indices. However, both of them have also felt the selling pressure from the S&P500 and the negative sentiment trickle down.
The NASDAQ in particular has faced a difficult time as the growth and technology sectors are smashed with the recessionary talk and inflationary pressures. With the end of the year fast approaching, the prospect of a Santa rally looks less promising with the sentiment in the market at the moment.
The world’s leading customer relationship management company Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) announced its latest financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Revenue reported at $7.84 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $7.827 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.40 per share vs. $1.217 per share estimate. ''We had a solid quarter with revenue of $7.84 billion, up 14% year-over-year or 19% growth in constant currency, and record operating margin,'' Marc Benioff, Chair & Co-CEO of the company said in a press release. ''We’re grateful to our customers for their commitment, especially as we help them succeed in this challenging environment. There’s never been a more important time for our customers to connect with their customers in a whole new way,'' Benioff added. Salesforce also announced a departure of company Co-CEO, Bret Taylor. ''I am grateful for six fantastic years at Salesforce,'' Taylor said in a statement on the company's website. ''Marc was my mentor well before I joined Salesforce and the opportunity to partner with him to lead the most important software company in the world is career-defining.
After a lot of reflection, I've decided to return to my entrepreneurial roots. Salesforce has never been more relevant to customers, and with its best-in-class management team and the company executing on all cylinders, now is the right time for me to step away,'' Taylor concluded. Taylor is set to leave his position on January 31, 2023.
The stock was down by around 9% on Thursday, trading at $144.33. Stock performance 1 Month: -1.86% 3 Month: -6.46% Year-to-date: -43.49% 1 Year: -45.02% Salesforce price targets Jefferies: $230 B of A Securities: $200 Canaccord Genuity: $180 Truist Securities: $210 Cowen & Co.: $195 Wedbush: $200 Deutsche Bank: $200 Barclays: $180 Morgan Stanley: $250 BMO Capital: $172 JP Morgan: $200 Salesforce Inc. is the 78 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $143.57 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported its latest financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended October 31, after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The US software company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Intuit reported revenue of $2.597 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.497 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.66 per share (an increase of 8% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.194 per share. ''We had a strong first quarter as we innovated and delivered on our strategy to be the global AI-driven expert platform powering prosperity for consumers and small businesses,'' Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We continue to see proof that the benefits of our financial technology platform are more mission-critical than ever to our customers in an uncertain macro environment,'' Goodarzi added. The stock was down by 1.54% on Tuesday at $378.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.68% 3 month: -11.31% Year-to-date: -40.27% 1 year: -41.10% Intuit price targets Keybanc: $450 Morgan Stanley: $520 Credit Suisse: $500 BMO Capital: $467 Barclays: $490 Wells Fargo: $525 Stifel: $475 Citigroup: $538 Deutsche Bank: $560 Intuit is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $108.70 billion.
You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap