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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed by BlackRock who confirmed it was false and their Spot ETF was still under review from the SEC.
Price quickly cleared all the gains, however, BTC is still trading up over 4% for the daily session. Technically, BTC is still trending in the right direction, with price reclaiming a diagonal trendline that was broken a few days ago. Currently sitting at the midpoint of a large range that has been holding firm since March.
If the momentum continues, we could see price moving up towards the next major resistance level around 30k USD. On the bearish side, there appears to be a large Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If we see the price continue to rise and then start falling away before taking out the July highs, there could be a good case for the Head & Shoulders pattern to play out.
Whatever way we see the price move in the following weeks, we could be in for some volatility as the markets appear to be reacting heavily to news events. With a number of US Fed officials speaking this week, we could see some further volatility as the markets try and predict what is in store for the US economy.
The USD has remained bid today heading into today’s pivotal US CPI where both the headline M/M and Y/Y figures are expected to show an increase over Julys readings. This is the last major inflation figure before next weeks FOMC meeting where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates (Fed Funds futures pricing in only a 7% chance of a 25bp hike). A beat on CPI today is unlikely to sway the rate hike odds much but it will cast doubt on any narrative that the Feds work on inflation is done.
A CPI coming inline with expectation or higher will likely see a reasonably hawkish FOMC statement and presser, where despite unchanged rates, the Fed may give a dot plot projection indicating one more hike this year. DXY has rallied in today’s session after yesterday’s whipsawing price action, with the upward trendline holding as support. US 10-year yields have also rallied to move towards the August highs as traders brace for a higher CPI and more hawkish Fed as a result, higher yields also a tailwind for the USD.
Headwinds for the DXY will be the 105+ resistance zone which has capped further gains in DXY for the last 12 months, also 10-year yields in the recent past finding a lot of resistance when over the 4% level.
Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) released Q3 results before the market open in the US on Thursday. Let’s take a look at how the Chinese company performed. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) The results World’s 12th largest automaker reported revenue of $4.749 billion for Q3 (up by 271.2% year-over-year), above analyst estimate of $4.581 billion.
EPS reported at $0.449 per share vs. $0.368 per share expected. The electric vehicle company delivered 105,108 cars in the previous quarter – up by 296.3% from the same period in 2022. Li Auto has delivered 284,647 vehicles so far this year.
CEO commentary "In response to the evolving market demand in the third quarter, we continued to strengthen synergies across production, supply, and sales, while enhancing our production capability. With these efforts, we achieved a number of breakthroughs across our delivery performance during the quarter, becoming China’s first emerging new energy automaker to reach the milestone of 500,000 cumulative deliveries. Each of our three Li L series models recorded over 10,000 monthly deliveries for three consecutive months since August, maintaining our position as the sales champion among SUVs and NEVs priced over RMB300,000 in China.
As we further expand our business scale, we will continue to maintain our profitability at a healthy level, while investing in research and development to propel the long-term growth of our business," Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, Li Xiang said in a press release to investors. The stock was down by around 2% on Thursday despite posting better-than-expected results. Shares of Li Auto are up by 118.68% in the past year at $38.28 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.41% 3 months: -11.16% Year-to-date: +86.62% 1 year: +118.67% Li Auto price targets B of A Securities: $60 Barclays: $48 Citigroup: $54.3 HSBC: $36 Jefferies: $20.66 Li Auto Inc. is the 453rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.17 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga, Macrotrends
The recent surge in gold prices, following recent events in the Middle East and the declining US Dollar (DXY), raises the question: Is this the end of the bull run for Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold started rising earlier this month after rejecting the price level of 1815.00. Since then, it has steadily climbed back to its previous peak of 1984.00, a resistance point that was notably challenging to breach in July.
This recent surge in gold prices, due in part to recent events in the Middle East, is attracting more bullish activity in the gold market. Simultaneously, the declining value of the US Dollar (DXY) has contributed to the upward movement of gold prices. Where can we see gold go in the near future?
In the market, assets tend to move in one of three directions: up, down, or sideways, often referred to as consolidation. Given that gold has reached its previous peak, it may seek potential support, which appears to be around 1930-1931. Concurrently, the US Dollar is experiencing a decline in value.
If gold manages to surpass the resistance at 1984.00, the next hurdle could be at 2060.00. This level is evident on the daily timeframe, where the price has approached 2060 on multiple occasions, only to be rejected. What about the DXY and XAU/USD?
The relationship between DXY (Dollar Index) and gold (XAU/USD) is intricate. Sometimes, when the dollar index is declining, the price of gold tends to move sideways or increase. However, examining larger time frames like the 4-hourly or daily charts reveals an inverse pattern of rejection and price rise between these two markets.
It's important to note that gold's movements are not solely dependent on the USD; other significant factors, including news, social and geo-political events can also play a substantial role in influencing its price fluctuations. Why is gold so important? Apart from its physical shine and the enduring symbolic connection with wealth seen throughout human history, gold holds significance as a historically reliable store of value and a means of exchange.
Unlike many other commodities, gold does not diminish or get depleted, giving it a timeless sense of worth. It can act as a safeguard against the erosion of currency value caused by inflation, prompting numerous investors to view gold as an alternative asset and a method of preserving their wealth. How can I trade gold?
At GO Markets, we provide Metal CFDs for trading, offering not only gold but also silver and copper futures. Our goal is to deliver an exceptional trading experience to our clients. We take pride in offering one of the best online trading platforms for gold, silver, and copper futures, in addition to providing access to FX, Soft Commodities, Shares, and Indexes, enabling our clients to diversify their investments across various financial markets.
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023 results ending September 30, 2023, after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob A. Iger (CEO) The results World’s third largest entertainment company reported revenue of $21.241 billion for the quarter (up by 5% year-over-year), narrowly missing analyst estimate of $21.369 billion.
Revenue for the full year reached $88.898 billion, an increase of 7% from the previous year. Earnings per share reported at $0.82 per share, above analyst estimate of $0.71 per share. EPS for the full year reached $3.76 per share.
Disney+ added 7 million core subscribers during the previous quarter. CEO commentary "Our results this quarter reflect the significant progress we’ve made over the past year," Robert A. Iger, CEO of Disney commented on the latest results. "While we still have work to do, these efforts have allowed us to move beyond this period of fixing and begin building our businesses again.
We have a solid foundation of creative excellence and innovation built over the past century, which has only been reinforced by the important restructuring and cost efficiency work we’ve done this year, and we’re on track to achieve roughly $7.5 billion in cost reductions. Combined with our portfolio of valuable businesses, brands and assets – and the way we manage them together – Disney has a strong hand that differentiates us from others in our industry." "As we look forward, there are four key building opportunities that will be central to our success: achieving significant and sustained profitability in our streaming business, building ESPN into the preeminent digital sports platform, improving the output and economics of our film studios, and turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences business. We have already made considerable advancements in these four areas and will continue to move forward with a sense of purpose and urgency, and I’m bullish about the opportunities we have before us to create lasting growth and increase shareholder value," Iger concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in the after-hours trading. Shares were up by around 3%.The stock is down by 2.59% in the past year at $84.50 per share. 1 month: -0.41% 3 months: -3.42% Year-to-date: -2.74% 1 year: -2.59% Walt Disney price targets JP Morgan: $120 Seaport Global: $93 Bernstein: $103 Rosenblatt: $103 B of A Securities: $110 Truist Securities: $105 Raymond James: $97 Wells Fargo: $110 Goldman Sachs: $136 Deutsche Bank: $135 Walt Disney is the 68th largest company in the world with a market cap of $154.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Walt Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga
Tuesdays FX session is turning out to be a mirror image on Monday’s session Where the USD was battered against its major peers. Today, seeing almost a full retrace of those moves as USD is once again king. The Dollar Index (DXY) respected the upward trendline support that has led DXY higher since July (with the exception of a brief break in early September).
A less aggressive CNH fix by the PBoC and sour risk sentiment also helping the Dollar. DXY rebounding strongly in Tuesday’s session so far, the 105 level will be key. DXY has found increasing resistance above this level for the last 12 months and with an empty news calendar in the US a push higher through the key 105 level in today’s session would be tough going.
GBPUSD had an initial and very brief spike higher on a hot headline UK average earnings figure, but quickly retraced from a high of 1.2530, losing the psychological 1.2500 as other jobs data painted a grim picture, with the unemployment rate a 200k+ drop in the employment and downward revisions on previous data weighing on Sterling. USDJPY continued to march higher, looking to fill the gap after the Monday open gap down on Japanese jawboning over the weekend. USDJPY did breach the psychological 147 level earlier in the session but has found some resistance there and at the 23.6 Fibonacci level (147.06) going into the US session.
AUDUSD gave back some of the big gains in Mondays session, but a rebound in the price of iron ore and a relatively firm CNH helped the Aussie stem it’s losses against the USD and certainly out performed its Antipodean rival the NZD. AUDUSD holding the key 0.6400 level trading within 0.6417-40, AUDNZD trading near the top of its recent range, getting to a high of 1.0885 in the Asian session. NZD undermined by downgrades to NZ fiscal projections in a pre-election report.
The US economic calendar is empty of key risk events in Tuesday’s session, all eyes will be on tomorrows pivotal CPI report though.