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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
US business software company Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) announced the latest financial results for first quarter of fiscal 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Mountain View, California, United States Number of employees: 18,200 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software Key people: Sasan Goodarzi (CEO), Scott Cook (Chairman) The results Intuit reported revenue of $2.978 billion for the three months ending October 31 st (up by 15% from the same period last year), which was above analyst estimate of $2.878 billion. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.47 per share (up by 49% year-over-year) vs. $1.978 per share expected.
The company reiterated full fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance of between $15.890 billion to $16.105 billion, which would represent growth of between 11% to 12% year-over-year. CEO commentary "We had a very strong first quarter, starting our fiscal year with momentum," CEO of Intuit, Sasan Goodarzi said in a letter to investors. "With data and AI core to our strategy, we're accelerating innovation across our global financial technology platform to power the prosperity of consumers and small businesses," Goodarzi added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.68% at $565.07 a share on Tuesday.
Share rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +14.17% 3 months: +5.33% Year-to-date: +45.18% 1 year: +48.82% Intuit stock price targets Wells Fargo: $575 Bank of America: $580 Morgan Stanley: $525 KeyBanc: $600 JP Morgan: $563 Intuit Inc. is the 71 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.18 billion. You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
USD – The US dollar index was ultimately firmer in a choppy session where DXY hit a low of 103.18 in the APAC session only to reverse course later hitting a high of 103.71 in the US session. A sour risk environment after some misses in US retail earnings and traders getting long before the FOMC minutes seem to be the key drivers. Reaction to the minutes ended up being muted with a slight pop that retraced in quick time.
DXY now sandwiched between its 200-day SMA and key support level at 103.60 heading into the APAC session. AUD – AUDUSD got off to a flier in the APAC session after what was seen as hawkish RBA minutes released early in the session. The Aussie did fade later as it failed to breach key technical resistance at the 200-day SMA at 0.6590 and finished the session flat.
Key levels to watch today will be 0.6524 to the downside which was the top end of its recent range and the aforementioned 200-day SMA to the upside, Aussie traders will have comments from Governor Bullock later today to watch out for. EUR GBP EUR was the G10 laggard with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.0901 before finding some support at the big figure. ECB president Lagarde did speak but failed to inspire the bulls, also some budgetary issue out of Germany weighed on the single currency.
GBP on the other hand outperformed with cable having a positive session after some hawkish commentary from the BoE. This saw a sharp drop in EURGBP from its resistance at 0.8750 and heading towards its lower trend line support. Gold – XAUUSD broke out, setting new November highs and testing the October highs at 2009 before finding some resistance.
This came despite a stronger USD on the session, which would cheer the gold bulls.
USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level. The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confident" policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%, he also hinted at rate cuts next year if inflation and the economy continued on its current path. There were also some comments from Fed member Bowman which skewed hawkish, but as she is already considered a hawk there wasn’t a comparable market reaction as to the Waller comments.
Chart Source:TradingView.com JPY was the G10 outperformer benefitting the most from USD weakness and lower US Treasury yields that saw the US 10 year and JGB 10-year yields compress further. USDJPY hitting a low of 147.32 and testing the November lows and support level at 147.27. Today the BoJ's Adachi is due to speak ahead of a raft of Japanese data released during the remainder of the week.
Chart Source:TradingView.com AUDUSD and NZDUSD both hit 3-month highs of 0.6665 and 0.6147 respectively, with broad USD weakness and a risk-on market supporting both cyclical currencies. Strength in the commodity markets and recent hawkish comments from RBA governor Bullock also lending a tailwind to AUD. Both currencies come into Wednesday with key economic readings to navigate, with Aussie CPI, where a drop to 5.2% Y/Y from 5.6% is expected, and a RBNZ rate decision due.
The RBNZ is widely expected to hold rates at 5.50% so it will be the forward guidance kiwi traders will be watching closely. Chart Source:TradingView.com
Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but eventually managed to hold that key level.
There were several hawkish leaning comments from ECB officials and ECB Minutes noting that members argued in favour of keeping the door open for a possible further rate. Source:TradingView.com GBPUSD extended on its mid-week bounce and made further progress above 1.2500 after UK manufacturing and services PMI figures beat forecasts. Source:TradingView.com USDJPY ended flat for the session but not before a sharp dip reversed following a bounce off support at 149.00 and seeing the pair again settle above 149.50.
Source:TradingView.com Ahead on Fridays, US traders will be mostly offline meaning another likely low volume session, we do have Manufacturing and Services PMI figures out of the US later today though.
The Euro was softer In Wednesdays US session with EURUSD failing to hold above the psychological 1.10 level with cooler than expected inflation readings out of Spain and Germany weighing on the single currency. EURGBP dropped for the fifth straight session and setting new November lows. Comments from ECB member Stournaras pushing back on April rate cut bets failing to offer much support.
Chart Source: TradingView.com JPY firmed against the USD, USDJPY still playing catch up with US – JP rate differentials. US yields were again lower across the curve putting downward pressure on USDJPY. The Yen did give up some gains after some dovish comments from the BoJ's Adachi regarding the BoJ’s easy money policies.
Chart Source: TradingView.com After a recent tear higher AUD was the G10 underperformer while across the ditch NZD was one of the outperformers. NZDUSD spiking higher following a hawkish hold from the RBNZ where the Central bank left rates on hold as expected, but it raised both its OCR and CPI forecasts and left the door wide open for future hikes if needed. AUDNZD tumbling through its 2023 range midpoint support at 1.07735 and setting new November lows.
Chart Source: TradingView.com Gold rallied for the fifth straight session, despite a bounce in the USD. XAUUSD poking it’s head above 20250 USD an ounce and entering the resistance zone set in April – May before paring some of its gains. The 2047-2067 zone looking a key area to test the rampant gold bull run of the last two weeks.
Chart Source: TradingView.com
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) reported the latest results for the fourth-quarter ending October 29, 2023 and full fiscal 2023 before the market opens in the US on Wednesday. The American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment beat Wall Street estimates for the fourth-quarter but fell short on future outlook expecations. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C.
May (Chairman, CEO & President) The results The company reported revenue of $15,412 billion (down by 1% year-over-year) vs. $13.641 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $8.26 (up by 11.02% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $7.462 per share. Full-year revenue reached $61,251 billion, up by 16.49% vs. 2022.
Deere expects revenue of between $7.75 to $8.25 billion for full-year 2024, below $9.31 billion expected. CEO commentary "Deere’s fourth-quarter and full-year results can be attributed to the successful execution of our Smart Industrial Operating Model and the value that customers recognize in our industry-leading products and solutions," John C. May, CEO of Deere said in a statement. "We must also recognize and credit our dedicated employees, dealers, and suppliers, whose hard work and focus have been instrumental to our overall success," May added.
Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% on Wednesday despite beating analyst estimates for the previous quarter due to future outlook. Stock performance 1 month: -0.80% 3 months: -6.43% Year-to-date: -13.95% 1 year: -15.67% Deere & Company stock price targets Canaccord Genuity: $400 Evercore ISI Group: $424 HSBC: $486 Deutsche Bank: $407 Stifel: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 UBS: $408 Credit Suisse: $551 JP Morgan: $380 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital: $425 Deere & Company is the 126th largest company in the world with a market cap of $106.07 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet