Market news & insights
Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights, news, and technical analysis to guide your trading decisions.
The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD rising above its 100 Day SMA at 1.0814, the 200 Day SMA at 1.0826 and briefly above the 1.0850 level.
There was little in the way of Euro data although ECB President Lagarde did speak where she stated the ECB is not there yet on inflation and noting wage pressures remain strong, supporting the EUR somewhat. JPY was softer vs the USD keeping USDJPY above the short erm support at the psychological 150 level. Higher UST yields supporting the pair seeing it test resistance at the 2024 high of 150.8.
JPY traders’ attention turning to Japanese inflation data today where the National Core CPI is expected to drop to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.3%.
USD was notably weaker in Thursday’s session ahead of the pivotal NFP report on Friday. The US Dollar index falling for the fifth straight session and breaking below 103 to touch on the Jan 24 lows before finding some support. Risk-on sentiment, a fall in yields and weak jobless claims data being the main drivers of the Greenback decline.
JPY saw strong gains against the USD on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, also helped by a tightening in US10Y-JP10Y yield differential. USDJPY continuing its break below the psychological 150 level to hit a low of 147.59. EUR also outperformed vs. the Greenback with EURUSD breaking through the key 1.09 level and entering APAC at NY session highs at 1.0948.
Thursdays ECB policy meeting saw the central bank maintaining rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target. This “dovish” tone saw EUR initially being the worst performer, before EURUSD benefitted from the accelerating in USD selling during the US session. Gold continued its steep rally for a seventh straight session, again setting new all-time highs in doing so.
A fall in yields, a weaker USD and a desire for safe havens pushing the precious metal above 2160 USD an ounce.
Risk off returned to the markets in Tuesdays session with US equity markets pulling back sharply led by tech stocks with the NASDAQ being the biggest loser, shedding 1.65%. The big headline for the day in FX was gold touching on all-time highs, rallying for a fifth straight session, buoyed by haven flows and a drop in US treasury yields. XAUUSD RSI reading in extreme overbought territory at over 78, the highest level since the blow off top in March 2022.
JPY was the G10 outperformer with USDJPY pushing briefly below the key 150 level after a hotter the expected Tokyo inflation print. Yen was also helped by more jawboning out of currency diplomat Kanda who said that markets must brace for higher interest rates environment. AUD and NZD saw marginal losses against the greenback, with AUD modestly outperforming the Kiwi.
In the APAC session both currencies were softer amid disappointment out of China which weighed on sentiment before recovering somewhat in the US session. AUDUSD briefly dropped below 0.65 and hit a low of 0.6478 before finding support to head into the APAC session above 0.65. NZDUSD pushing below last week's RBNZ-led low and 200DMA at 0.6076 to make a low at 0.6072 before recovering to trade above the key support at 0.61.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) wasn’t the only company releasing the latest earnings report on Thursday. World’s second largest supermarket chain Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) also announced their results after the closing bell on Wall Street. Costco reported revenue of $57.33 billion vs. $59.111 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 5.7% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $3.92, which was above Wall Street estimate of $3.64 per share. EPS increased by 18.78% vs. the same period the year prior.
Company overview Founded: September 15, 1983 Headquarters: Issaquah, Washington, United States Number of employees: 316,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Hamilton E. James (Chairman), W. Craig Jelinek (President and CEO) Stock reaction Broadcome was up by 1.60% before the earnings call, trading at $785.59 a share.
Shares rose to a new all-time high of $787.08 during the session. The stock was down by around 4% post market after the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +4.99% 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: +27.83% Year-to-date: +18.32% 1 year: +62.87% Costco stock price targets Oppenheimer: $805 Telsey Advisory Group: $785 Wells Fargo & Company: $675 The Goldman Sachs Group: $749 Loop Capital: $755 Tigress Financial: $745 Northcoast Research: $620 Raymond James: $670 UBS Group: $725 BMO Capital Markets: $700 DA Davidson: $600 Stifel Nicolaus: $675 Citigroup: $630 Evercore ISI: $650 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $605 Costco Wholesale Corporation is the 26 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $346.60 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Costco Wholesale Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) announced its latest financial results after the US market closed on Thursday. The US tech giant achieved revenue of $11.961 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 (up by 34% year-over-year) vs. $11.759 billion estimate. Earnings per share was reported at $10.99 (up by 6.38% year-over-year) vs. $10.368 per share expected.
The company announced a quarterly dividend of $5.25 a share. Company overview Founded: 1961 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 20,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductor, computer software Key people: Henry Samueli (Chairman), Hock Tan (President and CEO) CEO commentary Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom had this to say in a letter to investors: "We are pleased to have two strong drivers of revenue growth for Broadcom in the first quarter and fiscal year 2024. First, our acquisition of VMware is accelerating revenue growth in our infrastructure software segment, as customers deploy VMware Cloud Foundation.
Second, strong demand for our networking products in AI data centers, as well as custom AI accelerators from hyperscalers, are driving growth in our semiconductor segment." "We reiterate our fiscal year 2024 guidance for consolidated revenue of $50 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $30 billion," Tan looked at the year ahead. Stock reaction Shares ended Thursday’s session up by 4.22% before the results were announced, trading at $1,407.01 a share. The stock dipped by around 3% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +7.19% 1 month: +9.35% 3 months: +51.15% Year-to-date: +24.88% 1 year: +123.92% Broadcom stock price targets Mizuho: $1,550 Rosenblatt Securities: $1,500 Cantor Fitzergald: $1,600 Oppenheimer: $1,500 Susquehanna: $1,550 UBS Group: $1,480 The Goldman Sachs Group: $1,325 Citigroup: $1,100 TD Cowen: $1,000 Truist Financial: $1,015 KeyCorp: $1,200 Evercore ISI: $1,050 Robert W. Baird: $1,000 Deutsche Bank: $950 Wells Fargo & Company: $900 Broadcom Inc. is the 11 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $646.85 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select"Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Broadcom Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) announced Q2 fiscal 2024 results before the US opening bell on Tuesday. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories achieved revenue of $3.859 billion in the quarter, which topped analyst estimate of $3.846 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $28.89 vs. $26.296 per share expected.
Both revenue and EPS increased by 4.6% and 17.2% year-over-year respectively. AutoZone opened 29 new stores in the United States (19), Mexico (6) and Brazil (4) during the quarter. 3 stores were closed in the United States. The company has 7,191 stores in the Unites States (6,332), Mexico (751) and Brazil (108) as of 10/2/24.
Company overview Founded: 1979 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 119,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: William C. Rhodes III (Chairman, President, & CEO), Jamere Jackson (CFO) CEO commentary "I want to thank our AutoZoners for delivering solid earnings in our second fiscal quarter. Their commitment to delivering superior customer service again drove our very solid quarterly performance.
While a difficult holiday comparison for both Christmas and New Year’s negatively impacted quarterly sales performance, we continue to be encouraged with our sales initiatives, and believe we are well positioned for future growth. Additionally, we are pleased with our international business as we delivered another quarter of double-digit growth. We remain committed to prudently investing capital in our business, and we will be steadfast in our long-term, disciplined approach to increasing operating earnings and cash flows while utilizing our balance sheet effectively," Phil Daniele, CEO of the US company said in a statement to shareholders.
Stock reaction Shares rose to a new all-time high following the release of the latest results. The stock was up by over 5% at $2,926.32 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.67% 1 month: +3.21% 3 months: +12.59% Year-to-date: +13.31% 1 year: +17.83% AutoZone stock price targets Wedbush: $2950 Barclays: $2779 Morgan Stanley: $2900 Raymond James: $3100 Stephens: $3070 Truist Financial: $3027 TD Cowen: $2975 Oppenheimer: $2600 Argus: $2920 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $2975 Evercore ISI: $2750 DA Davidson: $2500 UBS Group: $2900 Bank of America: $2465 AutoZone Inc. is the 360 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.55 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap