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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Oracle Corporation reported its fiscal 2022 third quarter financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $10.513 billion vs. $10.506 billion expected. Earnings per share at $1.13 per share, falling short of analyst estimate of $1.18 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of outstanding common stock "In Q3, Oracle delivered over 7% constant currency revenue growth—our highest quarterly organic revenue growth rate since we began our transition to the cloud," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz following the latest results. "This strong top line growth was coupled with a solid non-GAAP constant currency operating profit growth of 4%, but the big story is that our overall revenue growth is being driven by both our rapidly growing Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications businesses. Q3 Cloud Infrastructure revenue was up 47% in constant currency. Q3 Cloud Applications growth was led by Fusion ERP, which was up 35% in constant currency and NetSuite ERP which was up 29% in constant currency.
Total Cloud revenue which includes Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications is now over $11 billion a year," Catz added. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Shares of Oracle were little changed at the end of trading on Thursday, up by 0.84% at $76.70 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -6.22% 3 Month: -13.53% Year-to-date: -11.98% 1 Year: +13.87% Oracle is the 49 th largest company in the world with total market cap of $204.85 billion.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be able to provide 2.5 million barrels a day to the global supply.
The drop has also coincided with a rebound in equities as the possibility that central banks may soften their aggressive interest-raising regime has entered the market. Further industry data released from the USA outlining their Crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday, may also impact the price in the short term. The recent drop has pushed the price of both Crude and WTI to 6-month lows not seen since before the Russia and Ukraine crises.
On the daily chart, both Brent and WTI are sitting on areas of support between $85-$93 and $83-$90 respectively. The price for both Brent and WTI has also dipped below the 200-day moving average indicating a medium-term bearish shift. The question remains, is this just a retracement, or a reversal of exhaustion?
Due to the prices being resting near their area of support and the RSI consolidating between 25-45, this does indicate a possible bounce. If the RSI can break above the recent consolidation/range or 45 and the general price of the commodity can bounce off its support, there may be the potential for buying opportunities. With any trade and especially those involving commodities, there are always external risks to consider that may invalidate the current trading strategy.
For instance, if inflation becomes less of an issue and central banks begin to taper their aggressiveness in fighting inflation, the price of oil may begin to slip. Therefore, this is a trade that can in which the utilisation of both technical and fundamental analysis can be done.
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for February on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 6,131 cars last month – an increase of 9.9% year-over-year. The deliveries in February consisted of: 1,084 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 3,309 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 1,738 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 182,853 electric vehicles as of 28 th February, 2022.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Shares of NIO were down by 4.25% at the end of the trading day on Tuesday at $21.87 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -11.96% 3 Month: -44.11% Year-to-date: -30.97% 1 Year: -49.48% NIO is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $34.78 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: NIO Inc., CompaniesMarketCap
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported it latest financial numbers before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The pharmaceutical company reported results that beat Wall Street estimates, sending the stock price higher on the day. Total revenue reported at $7.211 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $6.798 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $11.29 per share vs. estimate of $9.96 per share. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna commented on the last year’s performance following the latest results: "In 2021, we delivered 807 million doses with approximately 25% of those doses going to low- and middle-income countries, and we will continue to scale in 2022 to help end the COVID-19 pandemic. Moderna has experienced exponential growth and we have more than doubled the size of our team over the last year with a global team of 3,000.
We also have announced plans to scale to 21 commercial subsidiaries across the world, including four new locations in Asia and six new locations in Europe. We continue to expand and advance our industry-leading mRNA pipeline with 44 programs in development. We look forward to clinical readouts from our therapeutics development candidates later in 2022 in rare genetic diseases and oncology.
We are entering 2022 with a remarkable team and strategic priorities to continue advancing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics to impact human health." Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart (Weekly) Share price of Moderna surged by over 10% during Thursday, trading at $147.53 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: +0.18% 3 Month: -45.54% Year-to-date: -41.38% 1 Year: +0.34% Moderna Inc. is the 274 th largest company in the world and 21 st largest pharmaceutical company with a total market cap of $59.54 billion. You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $5.497 billion in Q2, beating analyst estimate of $5.267 billion. Earnings per share reported at $2.56 per share vs. $2.36 per share expected. ''We had strong revenue and earnings growth again this quarter, as overall consumer spending remained robust and cross-border volumes grew 58% versus year ago,'' Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard said in a press release following the results. ''Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly impact overall consumer spending but we will continue to monitor this closely.
We have a well-diversified business model and the demonstrated ability to deliver strong operating margins through up and down cycles,'' Miebach concluded. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) chart Shares of MasterCard were trading higher on Thursday after beating Wall Street expectations, up by around 1% at $348.50 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +10.56% 3 Month -7.92% Year-to-date -2.92% 1 Year -10.29% Mastercard Incorporated price targets JP Morgan $425 Wells Fargo $400 Piper Sandler $298 Mizuho $375 Truist Securities $420 Barclays $430 BMO Capital $402 Morgan Stanley $452 Mastercard Incorporated is the 19 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $338.14 billion.
You can trade Mastercard Incorporated (MA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Mastercard Incorporated, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Kansas City Federal Reserve is set to host the 45 th Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Some of the countries and world’s most important central bankers, economists, and academics will be meeting to discuss the biggest issues facing the global economy. The key issue on the agenda is of “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve expected to speak on Thursday and provide an update on the proceedings of the conference.
At last year’s event Powell was caught out after stating that inflation was transitory, only to see it become a huge long-lasting issue. Therefore, he may try and correct this perception and portray a much more conservative attitude. There is also a view from some analysts that the Fed came across too dovish in the July meeting which led to the market rally.
At this stage the market has priced in a 75-bps increase at the September meeting, however this may change. With key inflation measures slowing somewhat, the question will be whether the fed continue its aggressive interest rate hikes or eases their policy to avoid a potential recession. The market will be hoping that Powell provides some clues for what the Fed plans to do after rates peak.
They will be hoping for clarity over whether the bank will hold the rates at the high levels for some time or lower them straight away to avoid a recession. Market participants should be weary that although Jackson Hole may provide some important context to the future rates, no official policies will be set. The conference will most likely have a relatively small impact on the market, it still has the potential to provide some volatility for both equities and currency if significant attitude shifts are expressed.
The USD is currently at 5 year highs and with some positive catalysts for the currency, it may continue to rise further if the Fed continues to be aggressive in its rate hikes.