Technical analysis

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,135 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as US bond yields stayed elevated despite falling energy prices.

The Australian Dollar registers two days of consecutive gains versus the US Dollar, trading at 0.6980, up more than 0.50% as risk appetite improved, while the Aussie was supported by strong data on China’s GDP and Retail Sales.

Standard Chartered economist Hunter Chan notes that China’s Q3 GDP rose 1.2% q/q and 4.5% y/y, helped by robust exports and AI-related industrial demand, while household consumption stayed soft. The bank keeps its Q4 and full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts at 4.7% and 4.6%. It also cuts its 2026 CPI forecast to 0.9% but expects higher PPI inflation.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that the Dollar has softened after comments from Fed Chair Warsh reduced expectations of another rate hike, but still-high global yields keep the backdrop challenging for Asia FX.

The AUD/JPY advances late on Monday during the North American session, up 0.88%, as the cross-pair continues to trade above the resistance trendline of a ‘falling wedge,’ a bullish chart pattern that could open the door to testing higher prices.

Commerzbank economists note Singapore’s September NODX surged to its fastest pace since 1980, driven by broad-based gains in electronics and lumpy ship-related exports, yet they expect growth to moderate as base effects toughen and AI investment matures. USD/SGD has drifted lower but remains confined to a tight range since late September, reflecting resilient fundamentals and cautious MAS guidance.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports that USD/CNH has broken to fresh multi‑year lows near 6.6800 after stronger‑than‑expected China Q3 GDP, which keeps growth on track for the government’s 4.5%–5.0% 2026 target. BBH stresses that structural weaknesses in consumption and investment persist, but still sees the USD/CNH downtrend intact, supported by CNH internationalization and internal rebalancing.

The GBP/JPY advances by some 0.16% and extends its rally for the third straight day, with the cross pair trading at 210.93 as it approaches the September 18 high of 211.28, seen as the next key resistance ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

OCBC remains cautiously negative on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) after MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia from emerging market to standalone status, triggering sharp equity outflows and USD/IDR gains. The bank expects Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intervention to cap volatility but sees a sustained recovery needing clearer reforms and better external conditions, with 18,190 flagged as key resistance and Fibonacci supports below.