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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - Kiwi "The Kiwi" is a slang name for New Zealand's Dollar. Key currency Key currencies are stable currencies that don't vary too much, which can be globally used to set exchange rates and support international trade. Examples of key currencies include the U.S. dollar, the British pound, the Euro, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar or the Swiss franc.
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - L Leverage Leverage lets traders multiply their investment without the need to invest additional capital. e.g. If a broker offers 20:1 leverage, with an investment of $1,000 a trader could open a position of $20,000. It is important to note that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, it is critical this be factored in when determining risk and potential losses.
Liabilities Liabilities are a companies debts and financial obligations represented on its balance sheet. This is critical in determining the value of a company when potentially investing and liabilities offset company assets. Limit orders Limit orders execute a trade at a particular level that is more favorable than the marketing price at that time.
Limit down / limit up Limit down is the maximum amount a commodity future may decrease, while limit up is the maximum amount one may increase, in a single trading session. Liquidity (Market liquidity) Liquidity is used in finance to describe how easily an asset can be traded. When there is a high volume of active traders of an asset, there is high liquidity, and it is easier to find buyers and sellers for that asset.
Low liquidity markets can be difficult to trade, as there may not be many buyers and sellers willing to trade at an agreeable price. London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) LIBOR is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks borrowed unsecured funds from other banks in the London interbank market, however LIBOR is being gradually discontinued. USD-LIBOR has been replaced by SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and GBP-LIBOR has been replaced by SONIA (Sterling overnight index average).
Long "Going long" refers to taking a position that makes profit if an asset’s market price rises. Also referred to as "taking a long position". Lot A lot is a standardised group of assets that is traded instead of a single asset.
In the futures markets, lots are referred to as "contract sizes".
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - J
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - I Iceberg order An Iceberg order divides large orders into smaller segments. They are often used by traders for the purpose of hiding the full order quantity in order to minimise market disruption. Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud is a technical analysis indicator that shows support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction.
Roughly translated from Japanese, 'Ichimoku Kinko Hyo' means ‘one look equilibrium chart,' meaning traders can receive an array of information with just one look. In the money In the money (ITM) is defined by an option’s state of ‘moneyness’. More specifically, it refers to when an option goes beyond its strike price, giving it an intrinsic value of more than $0.
Index An index is a measure of something. In trading, an index is a grouping of financial assets that are used to give a performance indicator of a particular sector. Indices trading Indices trading refers to traders' endeavors to make money on the price movements of indices.
Inflation Inflation is the increase in the cost of goods and services in an economy, or the decline in the purchasing power of money (devaluing of currency). Learn more about Inflation. Interest Interest is the charge levied against a party for borrowing money, which can be either a cost or a means of making profit for a trader.
In trading, it can also refer to the amount of ownership a stockholder has in a company. Interest rates The amount that a lender charges to a borrower for the loan of an asset. The rate is expressed as a percentage of the loan.
Intrinsic value Intrinsic value is a measure of the perceived value of an asset. This is not always the same as the current market price because assets can be over- or undervalued. Interbank/Interdealer Market A market only open to large financial institutions, to trade between them.
This market is not restricted to a physical location and it does not have a centralised exchange. Investment capital A trader’s investment capital is the financial resources they currently have available for trading. It could be in the form of money or other assets.
It can also refer to funds invested in a firm or company for the purpose of furthering its business objectives. Investor An investor is a person who devotes capital to an investment, with the hope of seeing a return. The main goal of any investor is to minimise risk and maximise return.
IPO IPO stands for initial public offering. This is the first sale of a stock by a company, when it goes public on a stock exchange. This can also be known as floating, flotation, or just ‘going public’.
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - H Handle In trading, the term ‘handle’ has two meanings, depending on which market you are referring to. In most markets, handle is the the part of a price quote that exists to the left of the decimal point in the full quote. In forex, it refers to the part of the quote that you see in both the buy and sell price.
Hawks and doves The terms used by analysts and traders to classify the members of the Central Bank committee ahead of their votes and monetary policy is known as Hawks and doves. Learn more about Hawks and Doves Hedge/Hedging A hedge is an investment or trade designed to reduce your existing exposure to risk. The process of reducing risk via investments is termed as 'hedging'.
Heikin Ashi Heikin Ashi is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis. Heikin Ashi charts are similar to candlestick charts, but the main difference is that a Heikin Ashi chart uses the daily price averages to show the median price movement of an asset. High frequency trading A form of advanced trading platform that processes a high numbers of trades very quickly using powerful computing technology is termed as High Frequency Trading (HFT).
It can be used to either find the best price for a single large order, or to find opportunities for profit in the market in real time.
Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - F Face Value Face value represents the amount that must be paid out at a bond or stock's maturity. It may also mean the dollar value of a security, set by the issuer. Fair value Fair value is the present value of a stock, once the stock's intrinsic value is considered.
This may cause debate, as fair value is based on a subjective understanding. Federal Reserve Referred to as the ‘Fed’ for short, the Federal Reserve is the central banking system in the United States. Fiat currency Money that is given legal tender status by a government and is not linked to the value of physical commodities like gold or silver.
Fibonacci retracement A Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool that can help traders identify when to open and close a position, or when to apply stops and limits to their trades. It involves drawing trend lines on price charts between two points, usually the price highs and lows, in order to find possible areas of support and resistance. Fill Fill is the term used to refer to the completion of an order to trade a financial asset.
There is no guarantee that every trade will become filled. Financial instrument A financial instrument is a contract between two parties, which act as financial assets. These can be traded and settled.
Financial market A marketplace where the trading of securities occurs. The financial market provides an avenue for the purchase and sale of financial assets. Fixed costs Fixed costs are the expenses incurred by a company that are not impacted by the scale of production.
Fixed costs remain constant for a given period. Floating exchange rate A floating exchange rate is where the price of a currency is determined by supply and demand factors, relative to other currencies. Currencies with floating exchange rates can be traded without any restrictions, unlike fixed exchange rates.
FOMC The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which is a committee of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC is in charge of decisions around interest rates and the US money supply. Forex Forex is a global marketplace for trading international currencies.
It is sometimes referred to as foreign exchange or FX. Forward contract A contract that has a defined date of expiry, which obliges the holder to buy or sell an asset by a specific date. The contract can vary and be customised between different instances.
Fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of an asset and analysing the factors that could influence its price in the future. This form of analysis is based on external events and influences, as well as financial statements and industry trends. Learn more about exit systems for a fundamental approach Futures contract A futures contract is an agreement between to buy or sell an asset at a defined price on a specified date in the future.
They are also sometimes referred to simply as ‘futures.'