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Articles
Economic versus the Federal Reserve Policy Implications
Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near f...
May 21, 2024Read More >FX Analysis – USD halts decline, GBP downside risks ahead
The recent USD decline stalled in yesterday’s session with FX traders seemingly taking the view that there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker USD just yet. Aside from the inflation aspect – and markets may have reacted a bit too optimistically to the CPI and PPI – jobless claims also eased back yesterday to ...
May 17, 2024Read More >What a difference a (CPI) Day makes
We often talk about, ‘one piece of data does not make a trend,’ that ‘a headline is just a headline’ and that ‘assumptions are not facts.’ We feel this timeless market lesson has been slightly forgotten of late and the latest US CPI data may be case-in-point judging by the market’s reaction to the read. Let have a dive into the ...
May 16, 2024Read More >Banking it – Where are we after the May Central Bank deluge?
What a week and a half we have had - Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves). Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let’s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (...
May 14, 2024Read More >FX Analysis – USD looking vulnerable after soft data
The negative dollar reaction to a modest tick-up in US jobless claims yesterday (231k versus consensus 212k) where the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from session highs at 105.74 to close at session lows of 105.20 seems to be telling FX traders that tells us that: a) markets are probably lacking some sense of direction in the period between pay...
May 10, 2024Read More >Future metals: are we seeing the 2000s again?
Plenty has been made of the drive towards nickel and lithium as “future metals” as the world's “electrification” takes hold. This “electrification” has been nicknamed the “volt revolution” and when you get these kinds of technological leaps - what's appearing to be the “winner” now doesn't necessarily mean it will be the overall...
May 7, 2024Read More >FX analysis – USD decline continues post FOMC, JPY outperforms on probable BoJ intervention
USD continued the move lower sparked by a somewhat dovish Powell in Wednesdays FOMC meeting. And ahead of today’s key NFP print. DXY did hit highs after hot labour costs data, though quickly reversed to hit 3-week lows of 105.29, closing at session lows and looking to test the major support at 105. JPY was the clear outperformer of G10 cur...
May 3, 2024Read More >Inside the Fed
Let us open with this: “It’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely,” – US Chair Jay Powell This verbatim quote puts a lid on the movements seen in bond and interbank markets that might have overacted to recent data that has been above expectations and has led some to price hikes. The let u...
May 2, 2024Read More >FX – The Uncertain Peak: Assessing the Current State of Inflation and Interest Rates
As April draws to a close, the global economy stands at a pivotal juncture, grappling with the resurgence of inflationary pressures that refuse to retreat. In fact, it feels as though the inflation genie has re-emerged, asking, "Oh, you want more?" This resurgence prompts a crucial question: have we truly witnessed the peak of inflation, and con...
April 30, 2024Read More >FX Analysis – EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading?
With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest being Governing Council member M...
April 26, 2024Read More >FX analysis – USD rallies on hawkish Fed, JPY holds above 154
USD rallied in Tuesday’s session, with the US dollar Index hitting a 2024 high of 106.510 after hawkish Fed Chair Powell commentary where he noted recent data was showing a lack of further progress on inflation. Powell also added that if higher inflation persists the Fed can maintain current rate as long as needed. On data, building permits and h...
April 17, 2024Read More >FX analysis – Gold and USD eye key CPI figure
After last week’s blockbuster NFP figure FX traders have a key US CPI reading to look forward to later today. Rates markets have seen see-sawing expectations on when the Fed will start cutting rates and today’s CPI will be another big part of that puzzle. US CPI for March is expected to come in at a 0.3% increase, a slight cooling from Feb...
April 10, 2024Read More >FX analysis – USD strength to be tested by NFP
Data releases this week have hinted that the strong US activity story may be about to turn. The ISM services index declined more than expected, with the “prices paid” component slowing meaningfully to a four-year low. Yesterday, the NFIB reported that small business was looking to cut back on hiring and with small businesses accounting for almo...
April 5, 2024Read More >GO Markets Achieves ISO 27001 Certification
GO Markets proudly announces its achievement of ISO 27001 certification. This milestone underscores GO Markets' unwavering commitment to safeguarding its clients’ information assets and affirms its commitment to maintaining information security at an industry-leading level. This standard, part of the ISO 27000 series, sets out the specificatio...
April 3, 2024Read More >FX analysis – USDJPY hits 34 year highs, Gold surges
Thin trading in FX markets continued in a holiday shortened week with G10 FX mostly flat against the USD in Wednesday’s session also looking like traders are waiting for Fridays key US PCE inflation reading. The highlights were: USDJPY pushed past its November 2023 high hitting 151.97 which is the highest level this pair has reached since 1990...
March 28, 2024Read More >
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