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Articles
Fed Interest Rate Decision – How might this move the markets?
It’s that time again, the looming US FOMC meeting is upon us. Once again, investors and analysts are confident that they know the result. With the rate currently at 5.50%, markets have priced in a hold, with the CME FedWatch Tool giving it a 99.6% probability of the second consecutive hold for the Fed. Let’s explore that 0.4% chance that ...
November 1, 2023Read More >Will any BOJ intervention really have an impact on continued JPY weakness?
With the USD/JPY sitting at historic highs and touching the psychologically important level of 150 at the end of last week, markets are waiting to see if there is likely to be any intervention today from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Today, we see their two-day policy meeting concluding, culminating in their interest rate decision and, more importantly,...
October 31, 2023Read More >Three Key Things Markets Will Be Watching This Week
As major indices continue to look weak and test key technical levels, ongoing market sentiment is difficult to judge, with several crucial information points coming up over the next few days. #1 The Fed Rate Decision The Federal Reserve's narrative remains hawkish in terms of medium-term interest rates. Friday's PCE data did little to calm fe...
October 30, 2023Read More >Meta Platforms exceeds Q3 expectations
Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) announced its latest financial results after ther market close in the US on Thursday. Marc Zuckerburg’s company crushed analyst estimates for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how the company and the stock has performed. The results Meta reported revenue of $34.146 billion for Q3 (up by 23% year-over...
October 30, 2023Read More >US Markets take a hit and Aussie gives back CPI gains.
US markets took a big hit overnight after a mixed bag of earnings were released from the tech sector. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, took a 9.5 percent hit in yesterday’s session after releasing some disappointing earnings numbers on their cloud computing business. The $1.5+ trillion company has enough weight to pull down the indices wit...
October 26, 2023Read More >Bitcoin to reach $45,000? Bitcoin ETF anticipation growing
Bitcoin displayed strong momentum yesterday, with a notable increase of over 10% and approaching a 15% gain within the day. Price surged and has breached the previous resistance level at 31,000. This level has historically acted as a significant barrier, causing the price to retreat to around 25,000 after multiple attempts to surpass it. How...
October 25, 2023Read More >Is the Gold Run Over?
The recent surge in gold prices, following recent events in the Middle East and the declining US Dollar (DXY), raises the question: Is this the end of the bull run for Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold started rising earlier this month after rejecting the price level of 1815.00. Since then, it has steadily climbed back to its previous peak of 1984.00, a resi...
October 24, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yield spike on hot retail sales fails to lift USD, AUD outperforms, JPY , NZD.
USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday despite a big move higher in treasury yields after a beat in US retail sales figures, the headline rising 0.7% M/M vs 0.3% expected. DXY whipsawing within a contained range, hitting a high of 106.52 on the initial reaction to the retail sales figure, but quickly paring gains to hit a low of 106.02. Fed membe...
October 18, 2023Read More >Bitcoin provides traders with some volatility as price continues to trend north.
Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed...
October 17, 2023Read More >Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, Gold, Oil
Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watch...
October 16, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD and yields surge on hot CPI, Gold down, AUD and NZD pummelled
USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7% , above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later...
October 13, 2023Read More >Crude Oil analysis – WTI drops 3% to fills the gap on inventory build and dwindling supply disruption fears
WTI Crude oil got off to a flyer on Monday open as news broke of conflict in the Middle East saw a hefty risk premium being priced in fueled by fears of supply disruptions. It seems some of those fears have abated and along with a massive crude inventory build of almost 13mm barrels reported by API on Wednesday, a classic gap fill chart pattern has...
October 12, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and Dollar drop ahead of NFP , AUD and NZD outperform, JPY traders watching the 150 level
The USD sell off continued Thursday moving in lockstep with yields again ahead of today’s key non-farm payroll figure. Unemployment claims came inline and had a limited impact as it was yields driving action in the USD. DXY dropped to close at the lows of 106.32 from earlier highs of 106.86. So far this looks like a technical pullback from over...
October 6, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and USD rise again, AUD clobbered, JPY intervention?
The first week of the new quarter has so far been an interesting one, rampant US treasury yields breaking out to 16-year highs, a USD that just keeps going up and now it seems the Japanese Ministry of Finance is directly intervening in currency markets. USD rose to a high of 107.35 on the back of a surge in yields and a hawkish US JOLTS report w...
October 4, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD surges, USDJPY tests BoJ resolve at 150, AUD weak ahead of RBA
USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, ...
October 3, 2023Read More >
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