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Forex
Will any BOJ intervention really have an impact on continued JPY weakness?
With the USD/JPY sitting at historic highs and touching the psychologically important level of 150 at the end of last week, markets are waiting to see if there is likely to be any intervention today from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Today, we see their two-day policy meeting concluding, culminating in their interest rate decision and, more importantly,...
October 31, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yield spike on hot retail sales fails to lift USD, AUD outperforms, JPY , NZD.
USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday despite a big move higher in treasury yields after a beat in US retail sales figures, the headline rising 0.7% M/M vs 0.3% expected. DXY whipsawing within a contained range, hitting a high of 106.52 on the initial reaction to the retail sales figure, but quickly paring gains to hit a low of 106.02. Fed membe...
October 18, 2023Read More >Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, Gold, Oil
Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watch...
October 16, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD and yields surge on hot CPI, Gold down, AUD and NZD pummelled
USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7% , above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later...
October 13, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and Dollar drop ahead of NFP , AUD and NZD outperform, JPY traders watching the 150 level
The USD sell off continued Thursday moving in lockstep with yields again ahead of today’s key non-farm payroll figure. Unemployment claims came inline and had a limited impact as it was yields driving action in the USD. DXY dropped to close at the lows of 106.32 from earlier highs of 106.86. So far this looks like a technical pullback from over...
October 6, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and USD rise again, AUD clobbered, JPY intervention?
The first week of the new quarter has so far been an interesting one, rampant US treasury yields breaking out to 16-year highs, a USD that just keeps going up and now it seems the Japanese Ministry of Finance is directly intervening in currency markets. USD rose to a high of 107.35 on the back of a surge in yields and a hawkish US JOLTS report w...
October 4, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD surges, USDJPY tests BoJ resolve at 150, AUD weak ahead of RBA
USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, ...
October 3, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Rising US yields set FX tone as USD continues to grind higher
The ongoing sell-off in the US bond market has set the tone in FX and wider risk markets on Tuesday in an otherwise very slow news day. The USD has continued to grind higher against the higher yield backdrop with the US Dollar Index (DXY) adding to Mondays gains pushing above the 106 level, tracking yields higher. The Fed’s recent “highe...
September 26, 2023Read More >USDJPY Analysis – Yen under pressure as the BOJ keeps rates and policy unchanged
In a bit of an anti-climax in an exciting week in Central Bank action for FX traders today saw the BoJ keep the status quo of an ultra-accommodative monetary policy as expected. But disappointing the Yen bulls was the BoJ offering no clear sign of a shift in its policy stance in the near term after some speculation a clearer hint to normalization o...
September 22, 2023Read More >EURUSD at key level going into US interest rate decision.
EURUSD is once again at an interesting technical level coming into key US data this week. After holding firm in a rising channel for most of 2023, price fell away in early September. This coincided with the price also falling below the 200 SMA which also acted as support multiple times in 2023 so far. After bouncing nicely on the first hori...
September 19, 2023Read More >ECB Preview – Euro steady ahead of rate decision – EURUSD analysis
EURUSD is heading into today’s knife-edge ECB rate decision lacking any real direction after Wednesdays CPI inspired choppy performance. Markets are split on today’s ECB rate decision with money markets pricing around a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, but a slight majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expecting a hold. Against this backdr...
September 14, 2023Read More >USD and yields firmer ahead of US CPI
The USD has remained bid today heading into today’s pivotal US CPI where both the headline M/M and Y/Y figures are expected to show an increase over Julys readings. This is the last major inflation figure before next weeks FOMC meeting where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates (Fed Funds futures pricing in only a 7% chance of a 25bp hike). ...
September 13, 2023Read More >FX analysis – USD bounces back, JPY, GBP and AUD all under pressure as risk sentiment sours.
Tuesdays FX session is turning out to be a mirror image on Monday’s session Where the USD was battered against its major peers. Today, seeing almost a full retrace of those moves as USD is once again king. The Dollar Index (DXY) respected the upward trendline support that has led DXY higher since July (with the exception of a brief break in ea...
September 12, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – JPY Bid on Ueda Comments, GBP Reclaims Key Level Ahead of Jobs Figures, AUD breaks range.
Comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda over the week saw USDJPY gap significantly lower at the Asian session open. The pair now trading well under 147 from eight-month highs at Fridays close. Ueda commented that the BoJ cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates, this brin...
September 11, 2023Read More >EURUSD Faces Key Support Ahead of US CPI Data Release
The EURUSD pair has been navigating challenging waters in recent weeks, experiencing a decline of more than 5% since mid-July. This decline has primarily been due to the USD's strength, as the Federal Reserve remains firm in its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer to bring down inflation. Last week marked a critical tu...
September 11, 2023Read More >
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