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The Week Ahead – US and UK inflation, RBA minutes, BoJ meeting

Equity markets enter the second last week of 2023 on a roll, with US equities rallying for seven straight weeks and seeing all time highs in the Dow. The risk on rally was turbo charged last week after a dovish pivot from the US Fed in the December meeting saw yields and the Dollar tank and everything else bid heavily with rallies in Gold, Oil, ...

December 18, 2023
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FX Analysis – Dollar dumps, Gold surges on Fed pivot

Wednesdays FOMC meeting was always going to be about whether we’d see a hawkish pushback against market expectations of a dovish Fed in 2024, or a validation of those expectations, from the market reaction to the meeting, traders decided the latter is the conclusion. Rates were kept on hold at 5.35%-5.5% as expected but the updated dot plot an...

December 14, 2023
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FX Analysis – Gold continues slide, USD bid ahead of CPI, JPY dumps

USD was mildly bid on Monday ahead of a very busy calendar starting with US CPI later today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a high of 104.26, testing its trendline resistance before paring back to finish the session modestly in the green. DXY continuing to trade in the tight range between its 200-Day MA to the downside and resistance at around 1...

December 12, 2023
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The Week Ahead – FOMC, ECB, BoE – the charts to watch XAUUSD , DXY

Markets enter the new week with serious risk-on momentum, having seen US equities finishing the last 6 weeks with gains, but ahead we have a massive week in data that could put that narrative to the test. A lot of this positivity in risk assets has come on the back or markets pricing in dovish pivots from the Fed and other major central banks an...

December 11, 2023
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FX Analysis – Yen surges on hawkish BoJ, Gold holds key level, AUDUSD bounces off key support

Equities were green across the board in Thursday’s session, led by the Nasdaq which was up almost 200 points on renewed AI optimism after Google unveiled its newest AI model, Gemini. But it was the FX space where the big moves happened. JPY surged to have its best day of 2023 on the back of hawkish commentary from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda h...

December 8, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD pushes above key level, AUD ahead of the the RBA

USD bounced back to start the first full week of December after a horror run in November where the Dollar Index (DXY) fell around 3%. DXY breaking through the 200 Day SMA resistance and printing a high of 103.850. Sour risk sentiment and higher treasury yields (particularly in the short end) helping DXY erase the Powell inspired drop on Friday.  W...

December 5, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD continues decline on dovish Fedspeak, JPY outperforms, AUD and NZD breakout

USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level.  The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confide...

November 29, 2023
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FX Analysis – EUR and GBP rally on PMIs, USDJPY tests key level.

Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but ev...

November 24, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, XAUUSD

USD – The US dollar index was ultimately firmer in a choppy session where DXY hit a low of 103.18 in the APAC session only to reverse course later hitting a high of 103.71 in the US session. A sour risk environment after some misses in US retail earnings and traders getting long before the FOMC minutes seem to be the key drivers. Reaction to the ...

November 22, 2023
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FX Analysis – Falling Yields Pressure USD, the Key Levels to Watch.

Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production f...

November 17, 2023
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Australian Employment Beats Expectation – AUDUSD Reaction and Analysis.

Australian employment change for October was released today and showed a decent beat of +55k jobs added vs an expected 22.8k while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in line with expectation. AUDUSD reaction was muted, with markets still convinced that we have seen the peak in the RBA rate cycle with futures barely moving the needle on rate...

November 16, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD and Gold get a boost, JPY spikes on possible intervention.

AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of A...

November 14, 2023
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Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, USDOLLAR, GBPUSD

Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed p...

November 13, 2023
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FX Analysis – USDJPY, and GOLD reaction after a surge in the Dollar

USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat ...

November 10, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD stutters after RBA and weak Chinese data, USDJPY back above 150 testing the BoJ

AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether f...

November 8, 2023
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