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Hold tight: trading the RBA

With core CPI missing expectations and some slight deceleration in other areas such as retail sales an overall service economic activity. The RBA is likely to hold tight and not raise rates on Tuesday. We say this with some confidence, based on the communication coming from RBA governor Bullock. She had emphasised the importance of the second qu...

August 5, 2024
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One of two ways: Trading Australia’s CPI data

Australia's second quarter CPI due out on the 31st of July could go one of two ways so let's dive into how it will move and how to trade it. First way - Coming in line or below Currently 24 of the 30 surveyed economists see inflation coming in line or below expectations. That is June quarter CPI coming in at 1% quarter on quarter and 3.8% yea...

July 30, 2024
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Deja vu of 2023

Market action and underline breath of the last two and half weeks has been extreme and rather eye opening.  The S&P 500 has made 38 record all time highs in 2024 so far, however since its most recent peak on July 16 it has traded lower ever since. Now we need to put that into perspective, the pullback since its July high is 4.75 percent to ...

July 26, 2024
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Do you catch a falling knife?

We all know the market term ‘don't catch a falling knife’. And in the current market conditions why would you? But with indices, the likes of the magnificent 7, industrials and banks doing so well in 2024 people are asking where's the value? And that is why people chase falling knives, because they perceive this value. They perceive that if ...

July 23, 2024
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US trading thematics Part 3: More than the Trump trade

We've held off making comments about the events of what happened last weekend. Everyone has seen it, everyone knows the horrible scenario that it was but it is probably also meant that we have missed really key economic and fundamental trading reasons U.S. markets are now in a very broad bull market scenario. Inflation It was only 10 weeks ag...

July 17, 2024
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US trading thematics Part 2: Data Confirming

Will June be the turning point? The market thinks it is – and its reaction to the CPI data not only signalled how it will trade in the coming months. It also showed that traders are primed to rotate to even more bullish positions. Because from the market’s perspective September is now more than live its near enough to a lock for the Fed to cut ...

July 12, 2024
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US trading thematics: Part 1 “When Powell talks”

Over the coming 48 hours and then over the coming 2 weeks, Fed speak and US data is going to be some of the best trading opportunities in 2024. It’s been a pretty low-vol year despite several events that would under normal circumstances be triggers for much larger fluxes in FX and bonds. But to date: that has not been the case. Let's look at t...

July 10, 2024
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Earning Season: Prep starts now

We are less than three weeks away from the ASX earning season and we are less than two weeks away from the earnings season in the US. So, we need to start prepping for trades and opportunities now.  First and foremost, do not forget that confession season is well and truly upon us here in Australia. Downgrades clearly have been coming from the ...

July 5, 2024
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An oldie but a goodie – Why central bank differentials still work

2024 continues to be an interesting year for FX. Even more now that the starters gun has been fired with the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada as well as the likes of the Riksbank and SNB all starting to their respective cash rates from COVID peaks. This brings us to the next stage – who is next, who is going the other way and whe...

July 3, 2024
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Trading the inflation bumps Part 2: Narrow to non-existent

First – let us just say that as we suspected the AUD jolted all over the place on the release of the May CPI – the read was much stronger than consensus and the fallout from the read ongoing. But, and it’s a but, we predicted the AUD’s initial bullish reaction was counted by once again point to the fact parts of the monthly read can be expl...

June 28, 2024
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