OPEC announces increase in oil production

The OPEC group has announced plans to increase production of Crude oil to reduce the panic and ease the supply crunch. However, some analysts believe that the amount will be insufficient reduce the price. The organisation agreed to increase production to 648,000 barrels from 400,000 per day beginning in August. Brent crude and WTI dropped in price in response, although they did settle as the day progressed.

Background

The price of oil initially spiked in response to the Russian and Ukraine crisis as sanctions were placed on Russia and supply chains began to come under stress. This caused a supply shock, and prices began to rocket up. The added pressure of record high inflation has only accelerated the prices higher. Despite the increase in production, the emerging countries who produce oil are already struggling to keep up with their production targets. For instance, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Libya are struggling to produce their required amount for various reasons and have been set over ambitious targets. This leaves the USA and Saudi Arabia are left to pick up the slack.

Geopolitical Problems

Political forces are also at play whenever oil is mentioned. Russia has such a powerful role in the production. Restrictive economic sanctions placed on them since the crisis began has only added to uncertainty and volatility. Analysts believe that reducing the Russian influence on OPEC may reduce the volatility of oil prices, however this strategy will ultimately fail if Russia produces less oil and not more. Isolating Russia and placing more sanctions on them may prove counterproductive to dealing with oil supply.

Initial price action

The price of oil dropped on the news with both WTI and Brent Crude oil dropping significantly. WTI dropped by 3.44% whilst Brent dropped 2.93%. Both prices remain volatile and in pattern of medium-term consolidation. The price remains at the mercy of inflation rates and geopolitical influences.