- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products overview
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Volume rebates
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- MetaTrader copy trader
- cTrader
- cTrader copy trading
- Mobile trading platforms
- GO WebTrader
- PAMM
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Maintenance schedule
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products overview
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Volume rebates
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- MetaTrader copy trader
- cTrader
- cTrader copy trading
- Mobile trading platforms
- GO WebTrader
- PAMM
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Maintenance schedule
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Home
- News & Analysis
- Forex
- FX Analysis – EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading?
News & AnalysisWith an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest being Governing Council member Madis Muller who seemed to stress exactly that point this week.
EURUSD has been trading lately It appears that the divergence narrative – triggered by US data and the ECB in-meeting communication – has started to fade slightly, With EURUSD bouncing nicely off support at 1.06 over the last week. Improvements in the eurozone economic outlook probably playing a role in making the hawks reluctant to give in to a dovish policy path. A June cut is still the base case, but the accompanying message may fail to push rates much lower. That potentially limits how far EURUSD can fall on higher USD rates.
Today, the ECB publishes the CPI expectation surveys for March. In February, the 1-year gauge came in at 3.1% and the 3-year at 2.4%. Expectations are probably for a nudge lower in both surveys. Still, the dollar story should drive most EURUSD moves today: we see risks skewed to a higher dollar and do not see the pair being able to trade sustainably at 1.0700+.
Ready to start trading?
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Financial Services Guide (FSG) for that product before making any decisions.
Next Article
FX – The Uncertain Peak: Assessing the Current State of Inflation and Interest Rates
As April draws to a close, the global economy stands at a pivotal juncture, grappling with the resurgence of inflationary pressures that refuse to retreat. In fact, it feels as though the inflation genie has re-emerged, asking, "Oh, you want more?" This resurgence prompts a crucial question: have we truly witnessed the peak of inflation, and con...
April 30, 2024Read More >Previous Article
FX analysis – USD rallies on hawkish Fed, JPY holds above 154
USD rallied in Tuesday’s session, with the US dollar Index hitting a 2024 high of 106.510 after hawkish Fed Chair Powell commentary where he noted r...
April 17, 2024Read More >News and Analysis
Join our mailing list to receive market news and monthly newsletters, delivered directly to our inbox.