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Articles

Trade from an informed place. We cover news, political events and market analysis plus product updates.

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Articles

Trade from an informed place. We cover news, political events and market analysis plus product updates.

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Eyes on EURUSD going into European inflation data

After surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EURUSD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released today. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Ye...

July 19, 2023
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The Economics of Currency Pegs: Stability vs. Risk

A currency peg is a policy in which a country's government or central bank fixes the exchange rate of its currency to the value of another currency or a basket of currencies. The pegged rate is enforced by the country's central bank, which will exchange currency at that rate. Commonly, countries that participate in this practice prefer to peg th...

July 17, 2023
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US Dollar analysis ahead of pivotal CPI reading

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has closed its fourth consecutive day in the red, reaching levels last seen in early May 2023. Despite the recent decline, the DXY is coming into support around the 100 level, which has proven to be a resilient bounce point multiple times. However, each bounce appears to be getting smaller, which might indicate growing ...

July 12, 2023
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FX Market analysis – USD lower ahead of key CPI figure, GBP breaks out on strong jobs data

USD was marginally lower in Tuesdays session ,  trading in a tight range amid thin newsflow and market participants awaiting the key June CPI reading released later today. After breaking the psychological 102 level in Mondays session, DXY tested a re-entry into the range but found the previous support at 102 acting as stiff resistance, seeing DXY ...

July 12, 2023
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Understanding the US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally termed “the Dixie") is a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is often used as an indicator of the overall strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.  Changes in the index value reflect shifts in the rel...

July 11, 2023
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Potential Reversal on the NZDUSD?

The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would likely keep interest rates at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on 12th July. This is supported by the RBNZ’s monetary statement indicating that “monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full ef...

July 11, 2023
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Understanding market data: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator used to measure the health and activity level of a specific sector of an economy, namely the manufacturing or services sectors.  PMI data is published on a monthly basis and is of three types: Manufacturing PMI: This is the most well-known type of PMI. It measures the health of ...

July 5, 2023
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Could the RBA Surprise with another rate hike?

In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the Australian cash rate to 4.10%. This was decided on the basis that further increases were required to provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. This decision led to the AUDU...

July 3, 2023
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USDJPY enters the intervention “danger zone”

USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had t...

June 30, 2023
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Aussie inflation cools with big miss in CPI print – AUDUSD dumps

Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI....

June 28, 2023
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Key market data explained: The Non-farm Payrolls

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is one of the most significant economic events data release of the month and is released on the first Friday by the U.S. Department of Labor. It is a comprehensive snapshot of the current state of US employment, and encompasses the total number of paid employees in the U.S. economy, excluding agricultural, government, pr...

June 28, 2023
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GBPJPY Breaks Through to 2015 Levels

The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially exce...

June 28, 2023
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The VIX Explained: What Every Trader Needs to Know

Introduction The VIX Index, or Volatility Index, often referred to as the "fear gauge," measures expected future volatility in the U.S. stock market. Although it's worth noting that there are VIX variations for gold, oil, and global indices, when people discuss the VIX, they usually refer to the instrument based on the implied (forward looking ...

June 23, 2023
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FX wrap – GBP volatile on BoE surprise, JPY and CHF under pressure, USD follows yields up

USD was firmer on Thursday, largely due to a rally in treasury yields with the DXY tracking the 10 year yield higher to a peak of 102.470 after bouncing off the psychological 102 support level. US data was mixed with Unemployment claims and current account figures coming in worse than expected, but this was offset by a beat in Existing home sales. ...

June 23, 2023
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Money in Motion: The Factors Influencing Currency Appreciation and Depreciation

Currency appreciation refers to the increase in value of one currency relative to another currency or basket of currencies. Depreciation refers to the opposite scenario where a currency loses value against another. When a currency appreciates, it takes more units of other currencies to purchase one unit of the appreciating currency, and of cours...

June 21, 2023
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