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Early Voting Kicks Off, as a Trump Presidency comes into view

Early voting has officially begun in several critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina signalling the start of an intense final stretch in the race for the presidency. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have also now entered the early voting period and what is interesting in 2024 over 2020 is that Trump has backed...

October 23, 2024
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All too easy – vigilance is the key

If you look at equity markets in particular, you'd think everything smelled of roses. For the 47th time this calendar year US indices have made record all-time highs and 46 times at record closing highs. Earning season is underway and so far, it is doing what it always does, which is beating the Street 75 percent of the time. Banking, Tech and i...

October 17, 2024
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The US Presidential Election 2024 – Handbook

The basics: We are in the final weeks of the 2024 US presidential election.  But what exactly are US citizens voting for and when will it actually take place? A US election always takes place on the first Tuesday of November – that means that for this year Tuesday, 5 November 2024, is when the election will be held, with the swearing of...

October 11, 2024
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Disappointment with a capital D – watch out for overconfidence

There is a clear and present danger in trade at the moment – overconfidence. Overconfidence that policy and private capital will align and deliver trader a bullish windfall. However, from where we sit, this overconfidence should be defined as likely-disappointment. Let us explain. China 2024 is not China of 1994. After a week away for Go...

October 9, 2024
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Beware the Geopolitical trade: An evergreen trade risk to be remembered

The horrible events that we're currently seeing in the Middle East can sometimes create an unwanted attraction for traders. Chasing short, sharp swings in things like oil and other commodities of this ilk, might appear attractive for the here and now upside opportunity but be aware geopolitical trading always ends in bad outcomes. This is why we...

October 2, 2024
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When’s it our turn? A sustainable pivot

As we sit here and watch our overseas central bank counterparts move on interest rates. Our central bank gave us a new term, to explain why rate cuts are a long way off in their thinking. This term “sustainably” – that is  “sustainably back to target”, “sustainable path”, and a hundred other zingers that basically point out that the ...

September 30, 2024
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It Is Time – the other side of the mountain

In the words of one of the greatest supporting roles of all-time, this being Rafiki from the Lion King – It is time, (finally). We understand this is a bit tongue and cheek but the amount of false starts in 2024, we think it sums up what traders have been experiencing. So, we have reached the other side of the mountain. The cuts are coming. Th...

September 18, 2024
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The 3 Plays facing all Aussie Traders

We will do a deep dive into how to trade the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday but for now we need to address the Fed and others from an Australian traders perspective as it is one of 3 plays we need to be mindful of. 1. Hard or Soft – Can we stick the landing? All central banks across the developed world are doing summersaul...

September 17, 2024
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The Third Digital revolution – The “Now” Questions for AI

Over the past 3 months Nvidia has moved through ranges that some stocks don’t do in years, in some cases decades. Having lost over 35 per cent in the June to August sell off, it quickly bounced over 40 per cent in the preceding 20 days once it hit its August low as we build positions ahead of its results.  These results delivered Nvidia style...

September 13, 2024
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Strength of Signal – An Important Consideration for Traders?

In this article, we take an in-depth look at the concept of strength of signal and its potential role in improving trading outcomes. Traders are constantly seeking ways to enhance their results consistently, and the idea of evaluating the strength of a trading signal may provide a pathway toward greater reliability and performance when applied to t...

September 13, 2024
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The FX: Has the Fed dropped the ball?

We have been discussing Sahms’ law for the last few weeks. This is the regression indicator that signals the possibility of recession. For those that can't remember, Sahms' recession indicator is when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate has risen by more than 0.5 per cent from the previous 12 month low. Every time this has hap...

September 9, 2024
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That’s a wrap – The ASX earning season

So FY24 earnings are now done and from what we can see the results have been on the whole slightly better than expected. The catch is the numbers that we've seen for early FY25 which suggested any momentum we had from 2024 may be gone. So here are 8 things that caught our attention from the earnings season just completed. Resilient Economy...

September 3, 2024
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Jackson Hole leaves a hole heap of questions about employment

We now have a post-Jackson Hole set of questions – will the data stick up to what was preached. Reviewing the reactions to Jackson Hole treasury yields declined on a ramp up in bets around the Federal Funds rate after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks, which were in line with what we forecasted last week. His dovish remarks ...

August 27, 2024
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Jackson Hole Symposium – When doves try

Jackson Hole Symposium – When doves try Market pricing of the Federal Funds rate currently sits at 93 basis point of easing by year-end. Let us put that into perspective it was 110 basis points of easing at the peak of excitement, yet despite the increase in yields DXY has sold off and now trades sub-102.00 and is still falling like a stone. W...

August 21, 2024
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Hold tight: trading the RBA

With core CPI missing expectations and some slight deceleration in other areas such as retail sales an overall service economic activity. The RBA is likely to hold tight and not raise rates on Tuesday. We say this with some confidence, based on the communication coming from RBA governor Bullock. She had emphasised the importance of the second qu...

August 5, 2024
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