Apple—Can It Survive In Next Decade?

Apple is the first company on this planet to reach a $1 Trillion Market value, each year continuing to release brand new innovative products including the latest iPhone to hit shelves. There is no doubt that Apple is the technology king of this generation given its following, constant growth, and company profits. However, can it maintain its innovation and high market value over the next ten years?

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We all know that every technology product has a life cycle. Think about this: 30 years ago your family might get very excited when purchasing a new television, but are you still as enthusiastic if you buy a new TV today?

No, because on the one hand, the technology is a lot cheaper and commonplace, and on the other, the notion of refining this product has arguably reached its ceiling.

After Television, PCs and digital cameras also can’t escape from the same fate. Once sold at high prices with premium product positioning, I still remember my first PC which cost around USD 2000, and even this was considered low in the 1990‘s.

How about now?

PC sales in 2017 have dropped to 263m, which is even less than the sales of iPhone 1 in 2007.

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You may not have noticed, but coinciding with Apple reaching a $1 Trillion, value, the two major suppliers for iPhone components——Sunny Optical Ltd (Listed in Hong Kong) & LARGAN Precision Ltd (listed in Taiwan) are both experiencing price shocks in the stock market.

Let me first briefly introduce this two companies.

LARGAN Precision is a camera producer and provides five lenses for each iPhone. Its stock price has increased 1692% in the last decade. Sunny Optical became camera lens model supplier for iPhone since 2007. After ten years, its stock price increased insanely 13068%!

These miraculous returns are all based on the developing phase of smartphones.

However, the Smart Phone concept appears to be transitioning to its Mature Phase, and eventually, declining Phase.

In the 4th Quarter of 2017, the total sales of the Smart Phone market have dropped for the first time. You’ll notice from the chart that every smartphone company value fell, not just Apple and Samsung.

Regarding technology, Apple had already left the “Iron Throne” years ago. In the smartphone chips producing area, only two companies (LARGAN & Samsung) has achieved current Human Limit ——7nm (the thinner the chip, the harder for human technology to achieve)

Only one company (Samsung) is willing to put money into R&D and pursue the impossible——3nm.

Why has everyone else already given up? (which also means that the iPhone in the next few years will likely see little to no significant improvement, except the size, colour, and Price)

The smartphone product is not far away from its tech limit. It’s perhaps not worthwhile to invest loads of money into R&D anymore. Alternatively, it might be better off to move their R&D forces to the next generational products, for example, GPU, VR, Drone, Artificial intelligence, or something even beyond our imagination at the moment.

It is still too early to say whether Apple can keep its leading position in next 10 years, let’s wait and see.

By Lanson Chen – Analyst

 Lanson Chen
@LansonChen

This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: Statista, Apple, Google