The basics:

We are in the final weeks of the 2024 US presidential election. 

But what exactly are US citizens voting for and when will it actually take place?

A US election always takes place on the first Tuesday of November – that means that for this year Tuesday, 5 November 2024, is when the election will be held, with the swearing of the next president of the United States of America taking place in the first week of January 2025 and will serve a 4-year term with the next election due in November 2028 for a swearing in in January 2029.

The electoral mechanics of a US election

The President is not the candidate that gains the highest number of votes – known as the popular vote, just ask Hilary Cliton or Al Gore about this fact. 

The President is the candidate who wins the most ‘Electoral Colleges’.

Each of the 50 US states and territories has a certain amount of electoral college votes allocated to it. These votes are partly based on population densities and partly based on historical norms.

The total number of electoral colleges across the country is 538 and thus the winner needs to gain 270 or more electoral college votes to win the Oval Office. 

Here is ‘Electoral College Map’ – each one of the numbers in each State is how many electoral college votes that State is allocated.

This is where it gets interesting, all but two states have a winner takes all rule. So even if the voting in Pennsylvania for example was 49.9% to 50.1% – the higher candidate would take all 19 votes for that State. 

There are two States that have a ‘split’ these being Maine and Nebraska. As you can see in the map, these States have a split colour, in these two States some of the Electoral College votes can go to the lower voted candidate. However if there is a majority win all seats will go to the winner. These two have influenced elections in the past, however they are not expected to be in play this election.

The map currently shows five different scenarios. 

Those States that are solid towards one party or the other. Such as California (Democrats), and Texas (Republican). 

Those States that are leaning towards one part of the other such as Colorado (Democrats) and Florida (Republican).  

Then there are those States that are the “Keys” to each election, the States that flip known as Swing States or battleground States.

These have changed slightly over the years. For example, the State of Ohio used to be known as the keystone State as every election up until 2012 which every party candidate Ohio voted for, won the oval office. It has now changed and is a lock for the Republican party. 

On the flipside States like Arizona and Nevada used to be locks for the Republican party; now they are swing States. 

In 2024 there are 7 Swing States we see as the Keys to the election with one being the Keystone. They are:

Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and the Keystone State of Pennsylvania.

As things stand – Harris has solid and leaning State votes of 240, Trump has solid and leaning State votes of 225. 

The seven Swing states have 93 so a combination of these will be needed for the candidate to cross the magical 270 mark.

The Candidates

Running as the Republican Party nominee is former president Donald Trump. He smashed his rivals in the primaries with a whopping majority and has been the presumptive nominee really since losing the 2020 election. His vice-presidential running mate is Ohio senator JD Vance and is one of the youngest VP candidates in decades.

Running as the Democrat nominee is current Vice-President Kamala Harris. Her road to the nominee has been unconventional as she joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out and with no other Democrats standing against her no primaries were conducted. Her vice-presidential running mate is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, one of the oldest VP choices in decades although not as old as Trump himself.

The Capitol  

The Oval Office is not the only thing up for grab on November 5, and although all of the attention will be on who wins the presidency. Congress which consists of both the House of Representatives and Senate will be up for grabs.

In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for election. Currently the House is controlled by the Republicans, so a Trump Presidency with a Republican House would mean laws and spending directions would be easier to pass if the House status quo remained. But history shows that the house tends to swing every two years and having won the house in the Midterms the Republicans would be nervous of history repeating.

In the Senate 34 seats are being contested. There are 100 seats in the Senate rotating every 6 years. The Democrats currently control the Senate 51 seat to 49 and it’s likely to also be hotly contested come November 5 and like the House anything is possible.

Trading the Day

We think 2024 is likely to be similar to 2020 where the true result wasn’t known for several days. As the polls show 2024 is going to be one of the closest elections since WWII all votes will need to be counted before the winner is declared. 

We will be closely watching the seven Swing States for any signs one candidate is doing better than the other as this may provide a clearer picture of just how everything could play out. But with postal votes and early voting slips in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania being counted last on the day they are likely to drag out the timeframes.

We will also be watching key updates such as exit polls. The likes of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia have previously hit the newswire around 11am AEDT. In 2016 these States moved in Trump’s favour and famously saw the betting agencies wiping their markets for several minutes before returning with Trump a favourite over Clinton having been outside odds all campaign. At around 2pm AEDT Midwest Central States will start to declare keep these times in your diaries.

Watch for movements in DXY. The dollar basket in the 2016 election was volatile as a Trump presidency was seen as an ‘unknown’ however very quickly after the event it was bid up as his policies and market friendly mantra lead to strong inflows. 

As he is a “known known” in 2024 this may not be as big a mover as 2016. However, it’s likely the USD will shift higher any perceived good ‘Trump news’. 

Be aware of false dawns. All elections have false dawns with pre-emptive calls, biased interpretations, early ballot boxes showing big swings to one candidate due to small vote numbers. The list is long. These are trader traps, remember the election will not be over inside the Australian business day as West Coast States only close as we finish the day. 

Take your time to do your research with reputable news outlets tuned in to players like Bloomberg, Politico, CNBC, 538.com and Silver Bullet. International media stations like the BBC and our own ABC are likely to be impartial and news only focused.

Over the coming weeks leading into the November 5 election, we will be here to give you as much information as we can as to what is moving markets from the US election 2024 with this as our dedicated landing page. (link or whatever you guys want).

So welcome to trading the US Presidential Election with GO Markets.

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